Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is At A Critical Retest: Can Bulls Triumph?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio of the short-term holders is currently making a retest that could prove significant for BTC’s price. Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio Is Retesting Its 155-Day MA Right Now As explained by on-chain analyst Checkmate in a new post on X, the short-term holder MVRV [...]

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Shiba Inu Underbought, While Bitcoin Overbought Recently: Santiment

According to this metric, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has revealed Shiba Inu has been underbought recently, while Bitcoin is overbought. MVRV Z-Score Suggests Shiba Inu Has Been Undervalued Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has discussed how some of the top cryptocurrencies are looking like right now on their MVRV Z-Score. The “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) refers to a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap and realized cap for any given asset. The realized cap here is a capitalization model that calculates the total valuation of the cryptocurrency by assuming that the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the price at which said coin was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Surges 18%, But Watch Out For Crowd FOMO As the previous transaction of any coin was the last time it changed hands, the price at its time would denote its cost basis. Thus, the realized cap is a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in the circulating supply. Put another way, this model measures the total capital the investors used to purchase the asset’s supply. The market cap, in contrast, keeps track of the value these investors hold. As such, the MVRV, which compares these two metrics, tells us about the profit/loss situation of the investors as a whole. In the context of the current topic, the actual metric of interest is the “MVRV Z-score.” This indicator takes the difference between the market cap and the realized cap and divides it by the standard deviation of the market cap over the asset’s entire history. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in this indicator for various coins in the sector: Based on the MVRV Z-Score, Santiment has defined three zones that relate to how far from its fair value the asset is. The chart shows that Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Uniswap (UNI) have had the indicator at -1.55 and -1.96 recently, putting these assets inside the ‘underbought’ territory. At these MVRV Z-Score values, the market cap is significantly lesser than the realized cap, meaning investors are widely lost. Generally, profit holders are a more likely source of selling pressure in the market, so when there are few of them left, price corrections can become less probable. Related Reading: Retail Losing Interest In Bitcoin? Volume Plunges 30% This is why assets are considered undervalued when the indicator drops below the -1 level for them. Due to a similar reasoning, values above 1 correlate to the coin being overvalued. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Toncoin (TON) have recently been inside this latter territory, suggesting that their prices could be in danger of seeing bearish action. Shiba Inu and Uniswap, on the other hand, could be better set up for a price surge. SHIB Price At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading around $0.0000171, up 2% over the past week. Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

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Crypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Will Rise To $79,600 If This Holds

An analyst has explained how Bitcoin will “likely rise to test” the $79,600 level if BTC can hold above this important level of a pricing model. Next Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Band Is Currently Valued At $79,600 In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where BTC’s next destination could be based on an on-chain pricing model. The model uses the popular “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) indicator. This metric tells us how the value that the Bitcoin investors hold right now (that is, the market cap) compares against what they put in (the realized cap). Related Reading: Ethereum Investors Take On Sky-High Leverage: Brace For Volatile Storm? When the value of this indicator is greater than 1, it means that the holders as a whole are carrying a value higher than their initial investment; that is, they are in net profits. On the other hand, the MVRV being less than this threshold implies that the overall market is underwater at the moment. There are a couple of pricing models based on this metric, but in the context of the current discussion, the “MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands” are of interest. This model’s standard deviations around the MVRV mean signify the relevant price levels. Below is a chart that shows how these levels currently look for Bitcoin. As the graph shows, Bitcoin is currently trading above the +0.5 pricing band. At the price level corresponding to this 0.5 level ($66,800 right now), BTC’s MVRV value becomes 0.5 standard deviations above its mean value. According to this model, the next level of interest is the +1, where the MVRV is 1 standard deviation over its mean. The price level at which the MVRV ratio would satisfy this condition is $79,600. Historically, tops in the cryptocurrency have tended to form when the price breaches past this MVRV pricing band level. From the chart, it’s visible that BTC surpassed this level earlier in the year when it set its new all-time high, which continues to be the peak of the rally so far. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Volatility Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next Ali suggests that if Bitcoin can continue to hold above $66,800 (the +0.5 pricing band level), the asset will “likely rise to test the 1.0 pricing band at $79,600.” A potential rally to this level would imply an increase of more than 14% for BTC from its current price. Why do tops tend to be more probable to happen above the +1 MVRV pricing band? The reason could lie in the fact that when the MVRV attains values this high, the investors are holding considerable profits, so they are more likely to participate in a mass selloff. BTC Price Bitcoin witnessed a retest of the +0.5 pricing band earlier, but the level has continued to hold so far, as the coin has rebounded to $69,500 since then. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Is $77,600 The Next Step For Bitcoin? On-Chain Pricing Model Hints So

Data from a Bitcoin pricing model based on an on-chain indicator suggests that $77,600 may be the level where the asset will see its next peak. Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands Could Provide Hints About What’s Next In a new post on X, analyst Ali discussed what the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands model could suggest about the cryptocurrency’s future. The MVRV ratio is a popular on-chain indicator that compares the Bitcoin market cap and realized cap. The former is just the total valuation of the asset at the current spot price, while the latter is a model that calculates the asset’s cap by assuming the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain. Related Reading: Ethereum Whales Come Alive: Are They Buying Or Selling? The previous transfer of any coin on the network was likely the last time it changed hands, and thus, the price at that time would be its current cost basis. As such, the realized cap keeps track of the sum of the cost basis of every investor in the market. Therefore, the MVRV ratio tells us how the value the investors hold (the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap). Based on this indicator, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has developed a pricing bands model. Below is a chart showing what these pricing bands look like. The pricing bands in this model represent levels corresponding to a specific deviation from the mean for the MVRV ratio. From the chart, it’s visible that the cryptocurrency is currently above the price level, corresponding to a +0.5 standard deviation (SD) from the mean for the indicator. More specifically, the price level around $65,100 would be where the MVRV ratio would be +0.5 SD above its mean. The next major pricing band in this model is +1 SD, which currently corresponds to around $77,600. In the past, this level has been where at least local tops have been probable to form for BTC. As is visible in the graph, the rally top back in March also occurred when BTC broke this level. “Based on the MVRV Pricing Bands, if Bitcoin continues to trade above $65,125, the next local BTC top before a brief correction could be around $77,593!” notes the analyst. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Reveals Trigger For 17% Polygon (MATIC) Rally From the current spot price of the cryptocurrency, a potential rally to a new all-time high of $77,593 would mean an increase of more than 11% for the asset. It now remains to be seen how the asset’s price will develop from here and whether it will be able to maintain above the +0.5 SD MVRV level. BTC Price Since its sharp surge earlier, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum appears to have cooled off as the asset has fallen to sideways movement around the $69,700 mark. Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin MVRV At Critical Breakout Point Is A Price Rally Imminent?

The last trading week saw Bitcoin produce another price rebound as the premier cryptocurrency moved to reclaim the $95,000 price region. However, bullish momentum seems to have stalled in the past day amidst a minor retracement and an ongoing price consolidation.  Notably, speculations over Bitcoin’s ability to sustain the current uptrend also persist. Interestingly, popular crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has shed some light on possible developments that could decide BTCs price movement in the immediate future. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Remains In Positive Zone What This Means For Price Bitcoin MVRV Faces Resistance At 365 SMA In an X post on Saturday, Kesmeci reports that the Bitcoin MVRV is now facing an important resistance at its 365-day simple moving average (365SMA). The analyst explains that potential developments from this situation are influential to Bitcoins mid-term future. The Bitcoin MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) is an important on-chain metric that measures whether Bitcoin trading price is relatively overvalued or undervalued compared to its realized price. Technically, the MVRV is used to indicate profitability, but this metric can also signal market stages, such as a price top/bottom, or identify the current price trend. Meanwhile, the MVRV 365SMA, which produces an average of all MVRV ratios over the past 365 days, represents a critical threshold for medium-term reversal. Typically, when the MVRV remains below the 365SMA, it signals a bearish market, while a crossover above the 365SMA is interpreted as a bullish confirmation. Following recent market developments, Bitcoins MVRV currently stands at 2.13, just slightly below its 365SMA at 2.14. To confirm a long-term bullish market despite recent gains, an upward crossover between the MVRV and its 365SMA must occur, signaling a potential medium-term trend reversal following the prolonged correction phase in early 2025. Related Reading: Ethereum Flips Key Resistance Into Support Can Bulls Reclaim $2,000 Level? Bitcoin Network Fees Climb By 42%  In other developments, on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock reports that Bitcoin network fees surged by 42% in the past week. During this time, traders spent $4.03 million on transaction fees, suggesting a high level of network engagement.  Meanwhile, crypto exchanges also recorded net withdrawals valued at $356 million. While this figure falls far lower from the $1.3 billion reported in the previous week, it indicates that many investors are still opting to keep their assets. Both the increase in network activity and sustained exchange outflows point to strong underlying demand and positive sentiment in the Bitcoin market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $94,233 after a 0.78% decline in the past day. On larger timeframes, the premier cryptocurrency remains in profit with gains of 11.27% and 8.59% in the last seven and 30 days, respectively. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoin Dominance: BTCs MVRV Outpaces ETHs For Record 812 Days

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is currently on a record streak against the metric for Ethereum. Bitcoin Has Continued To Dominate Ethereum In MVRV Recently In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the divergence forming between Bitcoin and Ethereum. First, below is a chart that shows how the two cryptocurrencies have compared in terms of the Realized Cap growth since the start of the bull cycle. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of capital that the investors of a given asset as a whole have invested into it. Changes in this metric, therefore, reflect the amount of capital going in/out of the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Above This Level Could Set Stage For $208,550 Top, Analyst Says From the graph, it’s visible that Bitcoin has observed a massive increase of $468 billion in the Realized Cap since the bear market bottom back in November 2022. In this same window, Ethereum has seen inflows amounting to only $61 billion. As the analytics firm explains, This disparity in capital inflows between the two assets partly underscores why these assets have experienced diverging performance since 2023. Ethereum has experienced a relatively smaller inflow of demand and fresh capital this cycle, which has resulted in weaker price appreciation and a lack of a fresh ATH, despite Bitcoin prices reaching over $100k in December. Divergence between the assets has also formed in another metric: the MVRV Ratio. This indicator keeps track of the ratio between the Market Cap of an asset and its Realized Cap. Since the Market Cap represents the value the holders are carrying in the present, its comparison against the Realized Cap in the MVRV Ratio tells us about the profit-loss status of the investors as a whole. As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio diverged from Ethereum’s around the start of the bull market. This implies that BTC investors have consistently enjoyed a higher amount of unrealized profits in this cycle. In the recent market downturn so far, ETH has taken a larger hit than BTC, so its MVRV Ratio has also declined at a faster rate. BTC investors as a whole are still in the green, but ETH holders are now underwater as the indicator for it has dipped under the 1 mark. Related Reading: 62.8% Of XRP Realized Cap Held By New Investors: Sign Of Fragility? To better showcase the disparity in the MVRV Ratio of the two coins, Glassnode has charted the difference between the two. As displayed in the graph, the difference between the Bitcoin and Ethereum MVRV Ratio has remained positive for 812 consecutive days now, which is the longest streak in history. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $79,300, down over 3% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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This Bitcoin Indicator Has Hit Levels That Often Lead To Corrections

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin metric has recently hit levels that have historically led to corrections in the cryptocurrencys price. Bitcoin Is Currently 40% Above The Cost Basis Of Short-Term Holders CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn explained in a post on X that the BTC price is currently 40% above the cost basis of the [...]

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Bitcoin Top In Yet? What The Legendary MVRV Ratio Says

Here’s what the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggests about where the market is currently in terms of a top. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Seen A Decline To The 2.34 Level According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, the BTC MVRV ratio surged high earlier this year as the cryptocurrency rally took place. The “MVRV ratio” is a popular indicator that tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The former is simply the total valuation of the asset’s supply at the current spot price, while the latter is an on-chain capitalization model. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern The realized cap measures the total sum of the value of the cryptocurrency’s supply, assuming that each coin in circulation has its true value at the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain rather than the current spot value. One way to interpret the realized cap is that since it takes into account the buying price of every token in circulation (assuming that the last transaction of every token was indeed the point at which it last changed hands), it essentially sums up the total capital the investors have invested in the asset. As such, the MVRV ratio tells us how the total value that Bitcoin investors are carrying right now (that is, the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the past few years: Looks like the value of the metric has been turning down in recent days | Source: IntoTheBlock on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has had a value greater than 1 for a while now. When the indicator has such values, the market cap is greater than the realized cap, and hence, the investors carry net profits. With the latest rally in the asset, this indicator has surged to relatively high levels, a natural consequence of the holders’ profits ballooning up with the price surge. After the recent drawdown in the price, though, the MVRV ratio has also turned itself around, as it’s now heading down. At present, the ratio has a value of around 2.34. “Traditionally, an MVRV ratio above 3 has been a reliable marker for predicting price peaks,” notes IntoTheBlock. So far, in the current rally, the metric hasn’t crossed this mark. It did come close recently, but the latest decline has meant it has gained a bit more distance to the level. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode Why have tops historically occurred at high values of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio? The answer is that investors in profits are more likely to participate in selling, and this temptation to take profits only increases as their gains grow larger. Because of this, selloffs are most probable when the market is holding extreme levels of profits, which is exactly what high MVRV ratio values reflect. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,200, up 3% over the past 24 hours. The price of the asset appears to have rebounded over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Is The Bitcoin Bull Cycle Really Over? This Indicator Suggests Price Could Rebound To $130,000

The past week has been a rollercoaster ride for the cryptocurrency market, as the value of most large-cap assets took a significant hit over the last seven-day period. Specifically, the Bitcoin price fell beneath $80,000 for the first time since that almost vertical surge in November 2024. As expected, the market downturn has led to discussions and commentary about the price of Bitcoin already reaching its top in this cycle. Nevertheless, the latest on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might still have room for a final upward rally. How BTC Price Could Go For A Final Peak In This Cycle In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Tarekonchain revealed the “truth” behind the current cycle, saying the latest market crash might be an opportunity for investors to buy the dip. This prediction is based on a key on-chain indicator, the MVRV Ratio. Related Reading: Dogecoin Open Interest Declines 67% In Three Months Can Meme Coins Recover? The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio is an indicator that tracks the ratio between a coins market cap and its realized cap. When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it implies that more investors are considered to be in profit at the moment. High MVRV ratios are considered price top signals, as traders typically show a propensity to sell off their assets when they are in the green. According to Tarekonchain, the price of Bitcoin peaked in every previous cycle when the MVRV ratio crossed 3.5. However, on-chain data shows that this indicator only reached 2.7 as the price of Bitcoin notched a new all-time high around the $110,000 region. Tarekonchain noted that the Bitcoin price might not have topped out in the current cycle as its MVRV ratio is yet to reach 3.5 as it did in previous cycles. The Quicktake analyst also noted that while BTC’s slump beneath the 365-day moving average is undeniably a bearish signal, the premier cryptocurrency still has an opportunity to rebound from the critical $65,000 support level. “This does not mean the price must reach $65K, but rather that it’s a strong support level,” Tarekonchain added. According to the analyst, the MVRV ratio needs to at least cross 3.0 to be able to confirm the Bitcoin price reaching the cycle top. If the premier cryptocurrency finds support and successfully rebounds, investors could see BTC target new all-time highs the final peak of this cycle around $120K$130K. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $85,000, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Is Solana In A Macro Trend Move? Charts Show Potential Shift Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Correction Soon? MVRV Triple Ribbon Approaches Bearish Cross

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon is approaching a bearish cross, a sign that a correction could be coming soon for the crypto’s price. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon Is Close To Bearish Crossover As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the MVRV ratio warns that a new round of decline may be coming for BTC. The “MVRV ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its realized cap. The realized cap is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates a sort of “real value” for the asset by assuming that the true worth of each coin in circulation is the price at which the particular coin was last moved. Related Reading: XRP Accumulation: Key Sharks And Whales Group Hits All-Time High Holdings By comparing this realized cap with the market cap, the indicator tells us whether the coin’s actual price is fair or not right now. Here is a chart that shows the trend in three moving averages (10-day, 15-day, and 20-day) of this metric over the last few months: The three MAs seem to have been closing in on each other in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant These three MAs of the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio together form the “Triple Ribbon” indicator, and crossovers between these ribbons have historically had implications for the price of the asset. As you can see in the above graph, whenever the 10-day MA has passed below both the 15-day and the 20-day versions, while at the same time the 20-day has gone above both the others (thus keeping the 15-day’s position unchanged in the middle), a bearish crossover has formed for BTC. There have been two instances of such a cross during the last few months; the first one occurred back in August when Bitcoin was at the height of its first relief rally of this bear market, while the other one formed in November right as the FTX crash came around. In both of these occurrences, BTC’s price took a deep plunge following the cross formation. Related Reading: Altcoin Indexes Take Beating As Investors Flip Alts For Bitcoin From the chart, it’s apparent that the MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon has once again been approaching this same kind of bearish crossover recently. If these MAs continue in this trajectory and the cross does end up happening, then it might mean the crypto will see another sharp drop soon. BTC Price Looks like the value of the asset has continued to move sideways in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,800, down 5% in the last week. Featured image from Mark Basarab on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin MVRV Hits Levels That Led To Parabolic Bull Run In 2020

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is currently at the same high levels as those that led to the parabolic bull run back in 2020. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Shot Up As Latest Rally Has Occurred As pointed out by CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju in a post on X, the MVRV ratio has just hit a value of 2.5. The “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio” is a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The “realized cap” here refers to a capitalization model for BTC that assumes that the real value of any token in circulation is not its current spot price (as the market cap takes it to be), but rather the value at which the coin was last transferred on the network. Related Reading: TRON Hits 95 Million Addresses Milestone, Will This Help Price? The previous transaction for any coin may be considered the last time it changed hands, which implies that the price at the time would be its current cost basis. As such, the realized cap adds up the cost basis of every token in circulation. This means that the realized cap essentially keeps track of the total amount of capital that the investors have used to purchase their Bitcoin. Since the MVRV ratio compares the market cap (that is, the value the investors are holding right now) against this initial investment, its value can tell us about the amount of profit or loss the investors as a whole are currently carrying. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency: Looks like the value of the metric has been shooting up in recent days | Source: @ki_young_ju on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has rapidly climbed up as the asset’s price has gone through its latest rally. In this surge, the metric has managed to exceed the 2.5 level. When the ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market cap is higher than the realized cap right now, and thus, the overall market is holding its coins at some profit. A value of 2.5 implies the average wallet is currently carrying gains of 150%. Related Reading: Cardano (ADA) Among Only Coins Seeing Loss-Taking: What It Means “In Nov 2020, MVRV was 2.5 at $18K, preceding the all-time high and parabolic bull run,” explains Ju. Back in that bull run, the peak of the first half of 2021 wasn’t hit until the MVRV ratio crossed the 3.7 mark, just like the two bull runs preceding it. The top in November 2021, however, didn’t follow this pattern, as it formed close to the 3.0 level. It now remains to be seen which path Bitcoin would take in its current rally, if it is at all similar to either of these. BTC Price Following Bitcoin’s impressive 22% rally over the past week, the asset’s price is now trading around the $62,800 level, not very far from setting a new all-time high now. The price of the asset has gone through rapid growth over the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin MVRV At Critical Level: Will A Break Happen?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) is at a critical level currently. Will a bullish breakout take place? Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is Retesting The 1.5 Level Right Now As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC MVRV ratio has been around a critical level recently. The “MVRV ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its realized cap. The “realized cap” here refers to a capitalization model for the asset that assumes that the true value of each coin in the circulating supply is not the current spot price, but the price at which the coin was last transferred on the blockchain. This model aims to find a sort of “real value” for the coin, so its comparison with the market cap in the MVRV ratio can tell us how the current spot price (that is, the market cap) weighs up against this fair value. When the indicator has a value greater than one, it means that the market cap is more than the realized cap right now. In this situation, the investors are holding more value than they put in, so they become more likely to sell and harvest these profits. Thus, this kind of trend can suggest the asset is becoming overpriced and a correction may be on the horizon. On the other hand, low values imply the market cap of the cryptocurrency may be undervalued at the moment as the average investor is holding their coins at a loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the last few years: Looks like the value of the metric has gone up recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio had been below the one mark back during most of the second half of 2022. This isn’t an unusual trend, as bearish periods normally see investors going into deep losses, which naturally results in the indicator’s value plunging. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Tight Range: Will BTC Decompress With A Big Move? What’s interesting, though, is the metric’s interaction with the line where its value becomes 1. While bearish trends last, the level usually provides resistance to the asset. Examples of this happening during the past year’s bear market can be seen in the chart. With the rally this year, however, Bitcoin was able to break past this level, implying that a transition toward a bullish regime had occurred. The indicator briefly dropped to this level in March, but the line provided support to it, confirming that a bullish trend was indeed active. The MVRV ratio has now recently surged towards the 1.5 level, at which the market cap is 50% more than the realized cap. At these values, the asset naturally starts becoming overpriced and the risk of corrections goes up. From the graph, it’s visible that the coin found resistance at this 1.5 level when it was retested back in April. Since surging back toward it recently, the cryptocurrency has been moving sideways around this level so far. Related Reading: Polygon Volume Registers Sharp Increase, What Does It Mean? It now remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin MVRV ratio can break through this level with the current retest, or if it will end up facing another rejection. Naturally, if it’s the former, the rally might be able to continue. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $30,500, down 2% in the last week. BTC's price action continues to be stale | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin 30-Day Trader Profits Back In Healthy Range, Is BTC Ready For $100,000?

On-chain data shows the unrealized gains of the 30-day Bitcoin investors are now back inside the historical ‘healthy’ zone, a sign that could be bullish for BTC. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio For 30-Day Traders Has Declined Recently In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has discussed about the trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The MVRV Ratio here refers to an indicator that keeps track of how the value held by the BTC investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put in (the realized cap). Related Reading: XRP, Bitcoin See Lack Of Euphoria: Why This Is Bullish When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the market as a whole is in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold implies the dominance of loss among the investors. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio for the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of two specific holding ranges: 30-day and 365-day. The indicator corresponding to these ranges provides insight into the profit-loss breakdown of the monthly and yearly buyers of the asset. Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for the 30-day and 365-day traders over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for the 30-day investors had shot up to significant levels last month as the asset’s all-time high (ATH) exploration had taken place. Since the cryptocurrency has fallen to its consolidation phase, though, the metric has observed a cooldown. In the chart, Santiment has highlighted three zones for the indicator based on the historical trend. It would appear that the earlier increase had seen the metric surge into the ‘danger’ region, but with this decline, it’s now back inside the ‘healthy’ range. More specifically, the indicator has a value of 4.2% now, which is just inside the +5% to -5% range of the healthy zone. From the chart, it’s visible that the metric was last at this level on 26 November, just after which BTC observed a rebound. Generally, the tendency of the investors to sell goes up the higher amount of profits that they own, so high values of the MVRV Ratio can be a bad sign for the asset’s price. This is why the indicator being higher than 5% corresponds to the danger zone. Related Reading: Strong Bitcoin Rise Expected Within 1-2 Months, Quant Explains Why With the MVRV Ratio of the 30-day traders making a return into the healthy range, it’s possible that Bitcoin may be able to see a resumption of its rally or at least, avoid a further drop. The indicator for those who bought within the past year sits at more than 37%, but usually, investors who have been holding for so long don’t tend to sell easily, so these high profits may not be an immediate threat to BTC. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,900, down 1% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

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Is Bitcoin Bull Run Over? What This Legendary Metric Says

Here’s what the historical trend of the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio suggests regarding whether the current bull run is over or not. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Could Hint At Where BTC Is In Current Cycle In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju shared a chart showcasing the past pattern in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio refers to a popular on-chain metric that, in short, keeps track of how the value held by the BTC investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put into the asset (the realized cap). Related Reading: XRP Jumps 4%, Whale Reacts With $69 Million Coinbase Deposit When the value of the ratio is greater than 1, it means the investors as a whole can be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it is under the mark, implying the dominance of loss in the market. The version of the MVRV Ratio posted by Young Ju isn’t the ordinary one, but rather a modified form called the “True MVRV.” This variation takes into account for only the data of the coins that were involved in some kind of transaction activity during the past seven years. Coins that are older than seven years can be assumed to be lost forever, either due to being forgotten or because of having their wallet keys misplaced. As such, the True MVRV, which excludes these coins that are probable to never return back into circulation, can provide a more accurate picture of the sector than the normal version of the metric. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator over the history of the cryptocurrency: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin True MVRV has climbed to relatively high levels during this bull run. This implies the average investor is carrying notable profits. Historically, the higher the holder gains get, the more likely they become to participate in a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking. Thus, whenever the MVRV Ratio rises high, a top can become probable for BTC. From the chart, it’s visible that the tops during the past cycles occurred when the indicator surpassed a specific line. So far, the metric hasn’t come close to retesting this level in the latest epoch. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Greed: More Cooldown Needed For Bottom? According to the CryptoQuant founder, the reason the market cap hasn’t overheated relative to the realized cap yet is that there is still $7 billion in capital inflows entering the Bitcoin market every week. If the current cycle is going to show anything similar to the previous ones, then the True MVRV being high, but not extremely high, could potentially suggest room for BTC left in the current bull run. BTC Price Bitcoin has retraced its Christmas rally as its value is now back down to $95,700. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Officially In Overheated MVRV Zone, Rally End Near?

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently surpassed a level of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that has historically signaled overheated conditions. Bitcoin Has Surpassed Highest MVRV Deviation Pricing Band In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how Bitcoin is looking right now from the perspective of a pricing model based on the MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio is a popular BTC indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its realized cap. The latter here is an on-chain capitalization model that, in short, tells us about the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase their tokens. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Could See A 53% Surge If This Resistance Breaks, Analyst Explains Since the MVRV Ratio compares this initial investment against the value that the investors are currently holding (that is, the market cap), it essentially provides information about the profitability of the addresses on the BTC network. Now, the pricing model that Glassnode has created doesn’t directly make use of the MVRV Ratio itself, but rather some standard deviations (SDs) from its mean. Below is the chart for this model shared by the analytics firm in the report. In this model, pricing levels correspond to BTC prices at which the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to a certain SD above or below its mean. At the +0.5 SD level, for instance, the MVRV Ratio is 0.5 SD greater than its mean value. From the graph, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin price has broken past the highest of the pricing bands part of this model with its latest run. The level in question is the +1.0 SD, equivalent to $90,200 at the moment. Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band. The reason behind this is the fact that at such high levels of the MVRV Ratio, the investors carry a significant amount of profits, so a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking can become a real possibility. Related Reading: XRP Binance Inflows Spike: What It Means For Price The last time that the cryptocurrency broke past this barrier was in the first quarter of this year. As is visible in the chart, it didn’t take the price long to top out back then. In full-blown bull markets in the past, however, Bitcoin has generally sustained inside this overheated territory for notable periods of time before finding a peak. An example of this trend is also highlighted in the chart; the first half 2021 bull run saw the coin stay in the zone for a few months thanks to high capital inflows. As such, it’s not necessary that BTC would immediately reach a cyclical top now that it has become overheated on this model. BTC Price Bitcoin had risen beyond the $98,000 level earlier in the past day, but it seems the coin has suffered a minor setback as it’s now back at $97,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin MVRV Hits Critical Threshold For Profit Taking What Does This Mean?

Bitcoin recorded another remarkable price performance in the past week, gaining by 19.16% according to data from CoinMarketCap. The crypto market leader established a new all-time high at $93,434 on Wednesday, as odds of achieving a six-figure market price by years end are now higher than before.  Amidst the current market euphoria, CryptoQuant analyst Amr [...]

The post Bitcoin MVRV Hits Critical Threshold For Profit Taking What Does This Mean? appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

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Bitcoin Holds Steady As Bullish Breakout Awaits These Conditions Details

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin currently hovers near the $62,000 price mark with no significant movement in the past day. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has slipped into a minor consolidation state since the little gains recorded on Friday. However, for long-term traders, Bitcoin has remained in a range-bound movement stretching to March. And while many investors are highly expectant of a bullish breakout in Q4 2024, certain market conditions must be met. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Liquidation Forms Local Price Bottom A Return To $65,000 Inevitable? Bitcoin MVRV, CQ Bull & Bear Indicators Show Market Uneasiness In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username burakkesmeci shares that the Bitcoin market is currently set for key price movements. Based on the MVRV Ratio and CQ Bull & Bear metric, burakkesmeci notes that Bitcoin investors are presently showing a significant level of market anticipation.  For context, the MVRV Ratio compares the current price of Bitcoin to its realized value i.e. the price at which the asset last moved on-chain. It is generally used to indicate if Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued relative to its realized value.  When the MVRV ratio crosses above its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 365), it indicates a bullish trend as investors are seeing a year-to-date gain on their assets. However, burakkesmeci notes that Bitcoins MVRV currently at 1.90 has been hovering just below its SMA 365 (2.03) since July showing the BTC market remains in a steady position waiting for a breakout. The analyst has also observed a similar pattern in the CQ Bull & Bear indicator which measures recent price action relative to longer-term price movements. According to burrakesmeci, the CQ Bull & Bear metric has been oscillating slightly below its SMA 365 (0.46) since August enforcing the notion that the Bitcoin market is in a holding pattern.   Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Show Fear Could A Price Bottom Be Imminent? Factors That Will Spark A Bitcoin Rally For Bitcoin to experience a bullish breakout from its current holding position, burakkesmeci highlights certain events that must occur. First, he notes that the Federal Reserve must fully engage in a rate-cut cycle, gradually lowering interest rates over time. Interestingly, following a 50 basis points cut in September, market experts are tipping the Fed to implement another 25% cut at their next FOMC meeting in November.   Another bullish factor highlighted by burakkesmeci is an impending quantitative easing which will see the US government inject liquidity into the economy. It is expected that higher liquidity will allow individuals to explore risky investments such as Bitcoin.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $62,009 with a 0.02% loss in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the assets daily trading volume is down by 53.80% and valued at $12.97 billion.  Featured image from StomGain, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoin Signal That Led To At Least 70% Surge Has Formed Again

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin signal that has led to at least a 70% rally the last four times has recently formed for the asset once again. Bitcoin MVRV Momentum Has Seen A Bullish Crossover Recently In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed the recent trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The realized cap here refers to an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the asset by assuming that the true value of any token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain and not the current spot price. This last transaction price of any coin is likely to be its latest cost basis, so the realized cap is essentially a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in circulation. Put another way, this model represents the capital the investors have put into the asset. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity In contrast, the market cap, which calculates the total valuation of the total BTC supply at the current spot price, signifies the value the investors hold right now. When the value of the MVRV Ratio is greater than 1, the investors hold more value than they put in, so they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the metric under this threshold suggests the market as a whole is carrying a loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio and its 180-day moving average (MA) over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio has seen a surge recently as the asset’s price has gone through its recovery run, implying investor profitability has improved. With this increase, the indicator has now broken above its 180-day MA. Historically, a surge beyond this line has meant that the momentum of the metric has flipped to positive, which has proven to be a bullish predictor for the price. Related Reading: Dogecoin Breaks Away With 9% Surge: Why This Could Trouble Bitcoin In the chart, the analyst highlighted the previous rallies that followed a momentum flip in the MVRV Ratio. BTC appeared to have seen surges of at least 70% on each of the last four occasions. Going by this precedent, the latest change in the MVRV Ratio momentum to green may again lead to a surge for Bitcoin. It only remains to be seen, though, whether any such rally would be of a comparable scale to the previous ones or not. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,500, up almost 3% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Short-Term Bitcoin Holders See 10% Profit Potential Impact On Price?

The Bitcoin market experienced a modest recovery over the past week following the 15.7% correction in the latter half of December 2024. Amidst this recent price gain, developments from the short-term holders (STH) activity have revealed significant indications for Bitcoin in the coming days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Sinks To Lowest Since FTX Crash: Bottom In? Bitcoin STH MVRV At 1.1 With More Room To Run According to a recent X post, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shared a data report on the Bitcoin short-term holders’ MVRV ratio in relation to market price.  In crypto, the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) is a critical analysis tool used to gauge whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued. It is also used to track the holders profitability with values above 1 indicating profit and below 1 meaning a loss.  Based on Glassnodes report, the Bitcoin STH MVRV ratio currently stands at 1.1 suggesting that short-term holders i.e. investors who acquired Bitcoin within the past 155 days, are on average, experiencing a 10% profit. Considering BTCs price fall in recent weeks, there might be increased selling pressure as these holders move to realize their gains, leading to short-term price resistance.  However, data from Glassnode indicates that the Bitcoin MVRV STH ratio previously reached peaks of 1.35 in November 2024, and 1.44 in March 2024. These MVRV values suggest that short-term holders may tolerate higher profitability levels before triggering a widespread sell-off. If Bitcoin bulls maintain the current price recovery with rising demand, the STH MVRV ratio could rise closer to these historical peak levels, which could signal a confirmation of Bitcoin resuming its market uptrend.   Related Reading: On The Horizon: Bitcoin $140,000 Projection And SOL, XRP ETFs Approval In 2025 Crypto Forecast BTC Must Avoid Fall Below $87,000 – Heres Why In relation to the Bitcoin STH MVRV ratio, it is understood that 1.0, which indicates no profit or loss, is a pivotal value acting as a support during bullish trends or resistance in a market downtrend.  Glassnode report reveals that the current STH MVRV ratio shows that 1.0 corresponds with the $87,000 price zone. According to data from the Cumulative Bid-Ask Delta, there is an air pocket between $87,000 and $71,000 i.e. there is low trading activity or fewer significant buy orders in this price range. Therefore, if the price of BTC slips below $87,000, it will hit no significant support until $71,000 translating into a major price decline. At the time of writing, the premier cryptocurrency continues to trade at $98,081 reflecting a 1.02% gain in the past day. With a market cap of $1.94 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest asset in the crypto market. Featured image from BBC, chart from Tradingview

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$24,400 May Be Next Major Level Of Support For Bitcoin, Here’s Why

Historical data of an on-chain indicator may suggest that the $24,400 level could be a major level of support for Bitcoin right now. Bitcoin STH MVRV Would Hit 1.0 If Price Declines To $24,400 According to this week’s edition of the Glassnode report, the 1.0 level of the Bitcoin STH MVRV has been a point of support for the market during uptrends in the past. The “STH” here refers to the  “short-term holder group,” which is a Bitcoin cohort that includes all investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago. The “market value to realized value” (MVRV) is an indicator that measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and its realized cap. The “realized cap” here is a BTC capitalization model that aims to find the “real” value of the asset by assuming that the value of each coin in circulation is not the current price, but the price at which it was last moved on the blockchain. Since the realized cap accounts for the price at which the investors bought (which is the price at which their coins last moved), its comparison with the market cap (that is, the current price) can tell us about the degree of profitability or loss among the overall market. When the MVRV is greater than 1, it means the average investor is holding an unrealized profit with their BTC right now. On the other hand, values below this threshold imply the market as a whole is holding some amount of unrealized loss currently. Now, the “STH MVRV,” the actual indicator of interest in the current discussion, naturally measures the value of the ratio specifically for the coins owned by the Bitcoin short-term holders. The below chart shows the trend in the 7-day average value of this metric over the last few years: The 7-day average value of the metric seems to have been above the 1.0 level in recent months | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 18, 2023 In the graph, Glassnode has marked the lines of the 7-day average Bitcoin STH MVRV that have been relevant to the price of the cryptocurrency during the last few years. Related Reading: Ethereum Sees Inflows Of $505M Into Binance, Sign Of Selling? It looks like short-term corrections for the asset have generally become more probable when this indicator has crossed a value of 1.2. At this level, the STHs hold unrealized profits of 20%. The recent drawdown in the cryptocurrency’s price from the $30,000 mark also took place when the metric was above this level. To be more specific, the indicator had a value of 1.33 when the asset was rejected, implying that the STHs had 33% profits. The reason that high MVRV values of this cohort have usually made a decline more probable for the price is that the higher the amount of profits that the STHs hold, the more likely they become to sell and harvest their gains. From the chart, it’s visible that the on-chain analytics firm has also marked the relevance of the 1.0 level (that is, the threshold line between profit and loss) to the cryptocurrency. Interestingly, this level has generally provided support to the price during periods of uptrend. The likely explanation behind this trend is that the 1.0 level serves as the cost basis of the majority of the STHs in the market, so when the price hits this mark, these investors look at this point as a profitable zone to accumulate more of the asset. Obviously, this behavior is only seen during rallies, as holders would only find it worthful to buy more if they think the price has the potential to grow. Related Reading: Check Out This Shocking Pepe Coin Versus Bitcoin Comparison As the market is right now, the price would need to decline to $24,400 in order to hit this 1.0 level. This implies that if Bitcoin observes a deep decline in the near future, $24,400 could be the level that can provide support to it, considering the pattern that has held during the last few years. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,500, down 1% in the last week. Looks like BTC has seen some volatility recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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