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CATEGORY: bitcoin mvrv ratio


Apr 12, 2025 12:05

Bitcoin Dominance: BTCs MVRV Outpaces ETHs For Record 812 Days

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is currently on a record streak against the metric for Ethereum. Bitcoin Has Continued To Dominate Ethereum In MVRV Recently In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the divergence forming between Bitcoin and Ethereum. First, below is a chart that shows how the two cryptocurrencies have compared in terms of the Realized Cap growth since the start of the bull cycle. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of capital that the investors of a given asset as a whole have invested into it. Changes in this metric, therefore, reflect the amount of capital going in/out of the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Above This Level Could Set Stage For $208,550 Top, Analyst Says From the graph, it’s visible that Bitcoin has observed a massive increase of $468 billion in the Realized Cap since the bear market bottom back in November 2022. In this same window, Ethereum has seen inflows amounting to only $61 billion. As the analytics firm explains, This disparity in capital inflows between the two assets partly underscores why these assets have experienced diverging performance since 2023. Ethereum has experienced a relatively smaller inflow of demand and fresh capital this cycle, which has resulted in weaker price appreciation and a lack of a fresh ATH, despite Bitcoin prices reaching over $100k in December. Divergence between the assets has also formed in another metric: the MVRV Ratio. This indicator keeps track of the ratio between the Market Cap of an asset and its Realized Cap. Since the Market Cap represents the value the holders are carrying in the present, its comparison against the Realized Cap in the MVRV Ratio tells us about the profit-loss status of the investors as a whole. As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio diverged from Ethereum’s around the start of the bull market. This implies that BTC investors have consistently enjoyed a higher amount of unrealized profits in this cycle. In the recent market downturn so far, ETH has taken a larger hit than BTC, so its MVRV Ratio has also declined at a faster rate. BTC investors as a whole are still in the green, but ETH holders are now underwater as the indicator for it has dipped under the 1 mark. Related Reading: 62.8% Of XRP Realized Cap Held By New Investors: Sign Of Fragility? To better showcase the disparity in the MVRV Ratio of the two coins, Glassnode has charted the difference between the two. As displayed in the graph, the difference between the Bitcoin and Ethereum MVRV Ratio has remained positive for 812 consecutive days now, which is the longest streak in history. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $79,300, down over 3% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Mar 26, 2024 12:05

Bitcoin Top In Yet? What The Legendary MVRV Ratio Says

Here’s what the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggests about where the market is currently in terms of a top. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Seen A Decline To The 2.34 Level According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, the BTC MVRV ratio surged high earlier this year as the cryptocurrency rally took place. The “MVRV ratio” is a popular indicator that tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The former is simply the total valuation of the asset’s supply at the current spot price, while the latter is an on-chain capitalization model. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern The realized cap measures the total sum of the value of the cryptocurrency’s supply, assuming that each coin in circulation has its true value at the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain rather than the current spot value. One way to interpret the realized cap is that since it takes into account the buying price of every token in circulation (assuming that the last transaction of every token was indeed the point at which it last changed hands), it essentially sums up the total capital the investors have invested in the asset. As such, the MVRV ratio tells us how the total value that Bitcoin investors are carrying right now (that is, the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the past few years: Looks like the value of the metric has been turning down in recent days | Source: IntoTheBlock on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has had a value greater than 1 for a while now. When the indicator has such values, the market cap is greater than the realized cap, and hence, the investors carry net profits. With the latest rally in the asset, this indicator has surged to relatively high levels, a natural consequence of the holders’ profits ballooning up with the price surge. After the recent drawdown in the price, though, the MVRV ratio has also turned itself around, as it’s now heading down. At present, the ratio has a value of around 2.34. “Traditionally, an MVRV ratio above 3 has been a reliable marker for predicting price peaks,” notes IntoTheBlock. So far, in the current rally, the metric hasn’t crossed this mark. It did come close recently, but the latest decline has meant it has gained a bit more distance to the level. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode Why have tops historically occurred at high values of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio? The answer is that investors in profits are more likely to participate in selling, and this temptation to take profits only increases as their gains grow larger. Because of this, selloffs are most probable when the market is holding extreme levels of profits, which is exactly what high MVRV ratio values reflect. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,200, up 3% over the past 24 hours. The price of the asset appears to have rebounded over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com

Dec 22, 2022 04:45

Bitcoin Correction Soon? MVRV Triple Ribbon Approaches Bearish Cross

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon is approaching a bearish cross, a sign that a correction could be coming soon for the crypto’s price. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon Is Close To Bearish Crossover As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the MVRV ratio warns that a new round of decline may be coming for BTC. The “MVRV ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its realized cap. The realized cap is a capitalization model for BTC that calculates a sort of “real value” for the asset by assuming that the true worth of each coin in circulation is the price at which the particular coin was last moved. Related Reading: XRP Accumulation: Key Sharks And Whales Group Hits All-Time High Holdings By comparing this realized cap with the market cap, the indicator tells us whether the coin’s actual price is fair or not right now. Here is a chart that shows the trend in three moving averages (10-day, 15-day, and 20-day) of this metric over the last few months: The three MAs seem to have been closing in on each other in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant These three MAs of the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio together form the “Triple Ribbon” indicator, and crossovers between these ribbons have historically had implications for the price of the asset. As you can see in the above graph, whenever the 10-day MA has passed below both the 15-day and the 20-day versions, while at the same time the 20-day has gone above both the others (thus keeping the 15-day’s position unchanged in the middle), a bearish crossover has formed for BTC. There have been two instances of such a cross during the last few months; the first one occurred back in August when Bitcoin was at the height of its first relief rally of this bear market, while the other one formed in November right as the FTX crash came around. In both of these occurrences, BTC’s price took a deep plunge following the cross formation. Related Reading: Altcoin Indexes Take Beating As Investors Flip Alts For Bitcoin From the chart, it’s apparent that the MVRV Ratio Triple Ribbon has once again been approaching this same kind of bearish crossover recently. If these MAs continue in this trajectory and the cross does end up happening, then it might mean the crypto will see another sharp drop soon. BTC Price Looks like the value of the asset has continued to move sideways in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,800, down 5% in the last week. Featured image from Mark Basarab on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

Mar 01, 2024 12:05

Bitcoin MVRV Hits Levels That Led To Parabolic Bull Run In 2020

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is currently at the same high levels as those that led to the parabolic bull run back in 2020. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Shot Up As Latest Rally Has Occurred As pointed out by CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju in a post on X, the MVRV ratio has just hit a value of 2.5. The “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio” is a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The “realized cap” here refers to a capitalization model for BTC that assumes that the real value of any token in circulation is not its current spot price (as the market cap takes it to be), but rather the value at which the coin was last transferred on the network. Related Reading: TRON Hits 95 Million Addresses Milestone, Will This Help Price? The previous transaction for any coin may be considered the last time it changed hands, which implies that the price at the time would be its current cost basis. As such, the realized cap adds up the cost basis of every token in circulation. This means that the realized cap essentially keeps track of the total amount of capital that the investors have used to purchase their Bitcoin. Since the MVRV ratio compares the market cap (that is, the value the investors are holding right now) against this initial investment, its value can tell us about the amount of profit or loss the investors as a whole are currently carrying. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency: Looks like the value of the metric has been shooting up in recent days | Source: @ki_young_ju on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has rapidly climbed up as the asset’s price has gone through its latest rally. In this surge, the metric has managed to exceed the 2.5 level. When the ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market cap is higher than the realized cap right now, and thus, the overall market is holding its coins at some profit. A value of 2.5 implies the average wallet is currently carrying gains of 150%. Related Reading: Cardano (ADA) Among Only Coins Seeing Loss-Taking: What It Means “In Nov 2020, MVRV was 2.5 at $18K, preceding the all-time high and parabolic bull run,” explains Ju. Back in that bull run, the peak of the first half of 2021 wasn’t hit until the MVRV ratio crossed the 3.7 mark, just like the two bull runs preceding it. The top in November 2021, however, didn’t follow this pattern, as it formed close to the 3.0 level. It now remains to be seen which path Bitcoin would take in its current rally, if it is at all similar to either of these. BTC Price Following Bitcoin’s impressive 22% rally over the past week, the asset’s price is now trading around the $62,800 level, not very far from setting a new all-time high now. The price of the asset has gone through rapid growth over the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Dec 06, 2024 12:05

Bitcoin 30-Day Trader Profits Back In Healthy Range, Is BTC Ready For $100,000?

On-chain data shows the unrealized gains of the 30-day Bitcoin investors are now back inside the historical ‘healthy’ zone, a sign that could be bullish for BTC. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio For 30-Day Traders Has Declined Recently In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has discussed about the trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. The MVRV Ratio here refers to an indicator that keeps track of how the value held by the BTC investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put in (the realized cap). Related Reading: XRP, Bitcoin See Lack Of Euphoria: Why This Is Bullish When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the market as a whole is in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold implies the dominance of loss among the investors. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio for the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of two specific holding ranges: 30-day and 365-day. The indicator corresponding to these ranges provides insight into the profit-loss breakdown of the monthly and yearly buyers of the asset. Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for the 30-day and 365-day traders over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Ratio for the 30-day investors had shot up to significant levels last month as the asset’s all-time high (ATH) exploration had taken place. Since the cryptocurrency has fallen to its consolidation phase, though, the metric has observed a cooldown. In the chart, Santiment has highlighted three zones for the indicator based on the historical trend. It would appear that the earlier increase had seen the metric surge into the ‘danger’ region, but with this decline, it’s now back inside the ‘healthy’ range. More specifically, the indicator has a value of 4.2% now, which is just inside the +5% to -5% range of the healthy zone. From the chart, it’s visible that the metric was last at this level on 26 November, just after which BTC observed a rebound. Generally, the tendency of the investors to sell goes up the higher amount of profits that they own, so high values of the MVRV Ratio can be a bad sign for the asset’s price. This is why the indicator being higher than 5% corresponds to the danger zone. Related Reading: Strong Bitcoin Rise Expected Within 1-2 Months, Quant Explains Why With the MVRV Ratio of the 30-day traders making a return into the healthy range, it’s possible that Bitcoin may be able to see a resumption of its rally or at least, avoid a further drop. The indicator for those who bought within the past year sits at more than 37%, but usually, investors who have been holding for so long don’t tend to sell easily, so these high profits may not be an immediate threat to BTC. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,900, down 1% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

Nov 23, 2024 12:05

Bitcoin Officially In Overheated MVRV Zone, Rally End Near?

On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently surpassed a level of the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that has historically signaled overheated conditions. Bitcoin Has Surpassed Highest MVRV Deviation Pricing Band In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how Bitcoin is looking right now from the perspective of a pricing model based on the MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio is a popular BTC indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its realized cap. The latter here is an on-chain capitalization model that, in short, tells us about the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase their tokens. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Could See A 53% Surge If This Resistance Breaks, Analyst Explains Since the MVRV Ratio compares this initial investment against the value that the investors are currently holding (that is, the market cap), it essentially provides information about the profitability of the addresses on the BTC network. Now, the pricing model that Glassnode has created doesn’t directly make use of the MVRV Ratio itself, but rather some standard deviations (SDs) from its mean. Below is the chart for this model shared by the analytics firm in the report. In this model, pricing levels correspond to BTC prices at which the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to a certain SD above or below its mean. At the +0.5 SD level, for instance, the MVRV Ratio is 0.5 SD greater than its mean value. From the graph, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin price has broken past the highest of the pricing bands part of this model with its latest run. The level in question is the +1.0 SD, equivalent to $90,200 at the moment. Historically, BTC has tended to form tops when its price has exceeded this pricing band. The reason behind this is the fact that at such high levels of the MVRV Ratio, the investors carry a significant amount of profits, so a mass selloff with the motive of profit-taking can become a real possibility. Related Reading: XRP Binance Inflows Spike: What It Means For Price The last time that the cryptocurrency broke past this barrier was in the first quarter of this year. As is visible in the chart, it didn’t take the price long to top out back then. In full-blown bull markets in the past, however, Bitcoin has generally sustained inside this overheated territory for notable periods of time before finding a peak. An example of this trend is also highlighted in the chart; the first half 2021 bull run saw the coin stay in the zone for a few months thanks to high capital inflows. As such, it’s not necessary that BTC would immediately reach a cyclical top now that it has become overheated on this model. BTC Price Bitcoin had risen beyond the $98,000 level earlier in the past day, but it seems the coin has suffered a minor setback as it’s now back at $97,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Oct 07, 2024 12:05

Bitcoin Holds Steady As Bullish Breakout Awaits These Conditions Details

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin currently hovers near the $62,000 price mark with no significant movement in the past day. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has slipped into a minor consolidation state since the little gains recorded on Friday. However, for long-term traders, Bitcoin has remained in a range-bound movement stretching to March. And while many investors are highly expectant of a bullish breakout in Q4 2024, certain market conditions must be met. Related Reading: Bitcoin Futures Liquidation Forms Local Price Bottom A Return To $65,000 Inevitable? Bitcoin MVRV, CQ Bull & Bear Indicators Show Market Uneasiness In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username burakkesmeci shares that the Bitcoin market is currently set for key price movements. Based on the MVRV Ratio and CQ Bull & Bear metric, burakkesmeci notes that Bitcoin investors are presently showing a significant level of market anticipation.  For context, the MVRV Ratio compares the current price of Bitcoin to its realized value i.e. the price at which the asset last moved on-chain. It is generally used to indicate if Bitcoin is undervalued or overvalued relative to its realized value.  When the MVRV ratio crosses above its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA 365), it indicates a bullish trend as investors are seeing a year-to-date gain on their assets. However, burakkesmeci notes that Bitcoins MVRV currently at 1.90 has been hovering just below its SMA 365 (2.03) since July showing the BTC market remains in a steady position waiting for a breakout. The analyst has also observed a similar pattern in the CQ Bull & Bear indicator which measures recent price action relative to longer-term price movements. According to burrakesmeci, the CQ Bull & Bear metric has been oscillating slightly below its SMA 365 (0.46) since August enforcing the notion that the Bitcoin market is in a holding pattern.   Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Show Fear Could A Price Bottom Be Imminent? Factors That Will Spark A Bitcoin Rally For Bitcoin to experience a bullish breakout from its current holding position, burakkesmeci highlights certain events that must occur. First, he notes that the Federal Reserve must fully engage in a rate-cut cycle, gradually lowering interest rates over time. Interestingly, following a 50 basis points cut in September, market experts are tipping the Fed to implement another 25% cut at their next FOMC meeting in November.   Another bullish factor highlighted by burakkesmeci is an impending quantitative easing which will see the US government inject liquidity into the economy. It is expected that higher liquidity will allow individuals to explore risky investments such as Bitcoin.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $62,009 with a 0.02% loss in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the assets daily trading volume is down by 53.80% and valued at $12.97 billion.  Featured image from StomGain, chart from Tradingview

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