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Bitcoin Magazine Pro launches The Bitcoin Report, a monthly digest offering key insights into Bitcoin trends. From on-chain analysis to price forecasts, its a must-read for investors. The inaugural August edition is free to download.
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Over the past seven months, the price of Bitcoin has moved in a range between $73,777 and $49,000, significantly depressing sentiment across the market. In a new analysis published via X, Will Clemente III, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, addresses the prevailing sentiment of impatience and uncertainty among investors, sharing why he still remains bullish. Clementes bullish sentiment draws from a long-term perspective over the next decade. Drawing upon his expertise in portfolio construction and asset allocation, Clemente emphasized the importance of identifying major economic trends likely to unfold over the next decade. “Been thinking a lot about portfolio construction lately and position sizing. I keep coming back to there’s nothing I’d rather go into a coma for 10 years and hold than Bitcoin,” Clemente stated, emphasizing his confidence in Bitcoin as the superior long-term asset. His analysis is grounded in the anticipation of certain macroeconomic trends. Clemente suggests that investors should consider what the biggest trends are likely to be over the next decade and adjust their portfolio accordingly. This involves either significantly increasing investment in the highest confidence trend or spreading investments across several promising trends based on their potential impact. Related Reading: Critical Bitcoin Indicator: Analyst Foresees Major 75% Correction Ahead He personally favors focusing on the most probable trend, which he identifies as the ongoing growth of the US deficit and the subsequent need for the government to debase the currency to service this debt. This scenario, according to Clemente, offers a more predictable outcome than other technological trends like AI or space exploration. Compared to other technological trends, the debasement one is pure math. In addition, the way to bet on other technological trends, for example AI or space, isn’t as clear as debasement, given there’s not a way to position for it as clear as Bitcoin, Clemente writes. How High Can Bitcoin Go In 10 Years? Clemente’s bullish stance on Bitcoin is reinforced by his analysis of potential capital inflows from sovereign wealth and pension funds. He estimates that if these entities were to allocate just 1% of their capital to Bitcoin, it would result in approximately $460 billion of new investments into BTC, potentially doubling its market cap and driving prices to between $150,000 and $200,000 per Bitcoin. He further speculates on the impact of an increased allocation, suggesting that if concerns over the deficit intensify, these institutions might allocate as much as 3%, translating into $1.4 trillion entering Bitcoin. And the upside potential is even larger. What happens if it eats into the $10t-$15t of gold’s monetary premium? How about the combined monetary premium in treasuries/equities/real estate that’s currently parked into these assets as SoV to protect against currency debasement? Clemente pondered. Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Repeat History? Analyst Sees This 2019 Pattern In Current Market Concluding his analysis, Clemente reasoned that a $1 million price per Bitcoin by 2034 is not out of the realm of possibility when factoring in the reduced purchasing power of the dollar. Also would like to sprinkle on top that this is not factoring in dollars being worth significantly less in the future due to debasement, so $1mm BTC in 2034 is not as crazy as $1mm BTC in 2024, the analyst remarked. However, Clemente also acknowledged, I do think Bitcoin’s days of 100%+ CAGR are gone, but that’s not to say it won’t outperform equity indices by a lot — and on a confidence-adjusted basis, I don’t see anything as compelling in the marketplace today. At press time, BTC traded at $56,481. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Investors piled into Bitcoin investment funds and crypto ETPs, with more than $1 billion in inflows over the last week.
Bitcoin emerged as an investors favorite this past week, recording a price rise of 4.07% according to data from CoinMarketCap. During this price surge, the premier cryptocurrency traded as high as $66,000, a level last reached in late July. However, despite this price gain which extends Bitcoins unusual positive performance in September, certain market conditions indicate concern over the sustainability of this rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Biggest September Gains In A Decade: Heres Why Why Bitcoins Rally Is In Danger In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username Wenry outlined several reasons Bitcoin may not sustain its current upward trend. Firstly, Wenry notes that there is a lack of interest from retail investors in Korea and the US as indicated by a stagnant Taker volume. This status is different from previous Bitcoin price rallies where retail activity in these countries was prominent. Therefore, the analyst postulates that the current price surge is devoid of new investments and is likely driven by a select group of market participants. Furthermore, Wenry highlights there is currently a high level of Open Interest in the BTC market, but the asset continues to move in a range-bound market i.e. consolidation due to a low spot volume. The combination of both factors reflects the absence of a significant buying interest in Bitcoin despite the present rally. Another point of concern raised by Wenry states the current Bitcoin price gain is caused by a rise in derivatives trading due to macroeconomic factors such as the reduction of interest rates. The crypto analyst pinpoints a lack of equal support from the spot market therefore, the rally is likely a temporal uptick rather than a structural market shift. In conclusion, Wenry states that the absence of significant spot market volume, a stagnant Taker volume, and low retail participation all threaten the longevity of Bitcoins current rally. Notably, if retail investors remain away from the market, Bitcoin would likely remain in consolidation or even experience a price correction. Related Reading: Analyst Backs Bitcoin Hitting $290,000 In Bull Run Heres Why Bitcoin To Break All-Time High In Q4? On another front, popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe has backed Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high price of $73,750 in the last quarter of 2024, following a similar trajectory with gold. Van de Poppes prediction seems quite plausible as Q4 is traditionally the most bullish moment for Bitcoin. In addition, the renowned analyst is also backing altcoins to experience a 3-5x price surge in the same period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $65,810 following a 0.40% gain in the last day. In tandem, the assets daily trading volume is down 53.16% and valued at $65,649. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview
John Deaton has discussed his stance on US Federal Reserve CBDCs, regulatory clarity and government accountability in his Senate run.
Bitcoin has shown bullish momentum during the past day, but an analyst has pointed out how the asset may be in a high-risk zone now due to the Open Interest trend. Bitcoin Open Interest Has Seen A Rapid Increase Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Open Interest has just surged to high levels. The “Open Interest” is an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of BTC-related positions currently open on all derivatives exchanges. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Rallies 34%, But Will FOMO End The Rally? When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the derivatives market right now. As the overall leverage in the sector increases when this trend occurs, it can lead to higher asset price volatility. On the other hand, the indicator heading down suggests the derivatives contract holders are either closing up positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. This kind of trend can lead to more stability for BTC. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest had cooled off to relatively low levels earlier in the month as the asset’s price crashed. With the recovery in the coin, however, the indicator has been noting growth again. The indicator is now high, potentially implying the market has become overleveraged. As mentioned earlier, a high metric value can lead to more volatility for BTC. The reason behind this is that mass liquidation events can become more probable to occur at these levels, making the price act more volatile. On paper, the volatility emerging from an Open Interest increase can take the coin in either direction, but BTC has shown a consistent pattern in the past year. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, the indicator entering into the same zone as now has generally turned out to be bearish for Bitcoin in this window. Related Reading: Render (RENDER) Shows 23% Surge As Sharks & Whales Continue To Buy In these instances, the Open Interest surge had occurred alongside price surges, indicating that long positions had been piling up. The latest growth in the indicator has also naturally come similarly. “We’re in a high-risk zone, and in my opinion, it’s not the best time for fresh long positions,” notes Maartunn. It remains to be seen how Bitcoin develops in the coming days and if it will hit the top, just like it did during those other instances. BTC Price Following the rally in the past day, Bitcoin has managed to find a break above the $66,000 level for the first time in almost two months Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Render has shown a sharp jump of more than 23% during the last week as on-chain data shows the large hands have continued to buy. Render Has Enjoyed Bullish Momentum Over The Past Week The cryptocurrency sector as a whole has witnessed an uplift recently, but Render has been among the altcoins that have really stood out from the rest. Whereas Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have only seen weekly profits of around 3% and 9%, respectively, RENDER has shown an impressive 23% jump. Related Reading: Dogecoin Wins Over Major Demand Zone: Path To $0.15 Now Clear? The below chart shows how the recent performance of the asset has been like. Following this sharp growth, Render’s price has now neared the $6.5 mark for the first time in four weeks. In terms of the market cap, the asset has seen its valuation touch $3.3 billion, placing it at the 29th place on the top cryptocurrencies list. The coin is now chasing Pepe (PEPE), which is the 28th largest asset in the sector with a market cap of around $3.9 billion. Though, considering the 18% difference in their valuations, it wouldn’t be an easy task for RENDER, especially since PEPE generally shows a notable rise of its own when the market goes up. As for what could be behind the latest growth that the cryptocurrency has enjoyed, perhaps on-chain data can provide some hints. Sharks & Whales Have Been Busy Buying The Token Recently According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the Render sharks and whales have participated in some considerable accumulation during the last eleven weeks. The indicator of relevance here is the “Supply Distribution,” which tells us about the amount of supply that a given wallet group on the network is holding right now. In the context of the current topic, the cohort containing addresses who own at least 100,000 tokens is of interest. At the current price of the coin, this cutoff is equivalent to just under $650,000, which is a significant amount. As such, this group corresponds to the large hands of the market, popularly known as the sharks and whales. Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm, which shows how the Supply Distribution for these investors carrying 100,000+ coins has changed over the last few months: From the graph, it’s apparent that the supply held by the Render sharks and whales has witnessed a considerable increase over the last eleven or so weeks. More specifically, these investors have added 20.54 million tokens to their wallets, equivalent to 3.7% of the total supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Correlation With Gold Now At Highest Level Since March The buying spree from this cohort has continued during the latest price surge and thus, could be at least a factor behind why it has taken place. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, CoinMarketCap.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoins strong rally puts it in a good position where the 200-MA and $65,000 level could potentially serve as a new level of support.
Bitcoin is firm at press time. According to CoinMarketCap data, the world’s most valuable coin is changing hands above $63,500, steady on the last day and up a decent 7% over the previous week of trading. Technically, the uptrend remains as long as prices stay above the support zone at around $58,000 and $60,000. Bitcoin Up 30% From August Lows, RSI Dips Below 80% Level In The Monthly Chart At press time, traders are upbeat and optimistic, which could form the base of another leg up. So far, since the dip in early August, Bitcoin is up 30% and retesting August highs at around $65,000. However, there are high expectations that buyers will push prices above this level, marking another phase for confident bulls, a development in the monthly chart is worth noting. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Top At $400,000 Based On This Model, Analyst Says Taking to X, the analyst notes that as bulls struggle to break above $65,000 and print a fresh 2-month high, the upside momentum seems to be fading. At press time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the monthly chart is falling, recently breaking below the 80%. Typically, the zone between 80% and 100% marks the upper limit of the oscillator, denoting that the coin is overvalued or in the overbought territory. With the RSI falling, it can be interpreted that the upside momentum is down, which is a net negative for bulls. Since this is printed out in the monthly chart, it could have serious consequences in the daily and lower time frames. It can hint that cracks are forming, and sellers may be preparing to push lower, especially if bulls fail to break above $65,000. There Is Hope, BTC Will Likely Spike Once Prices Race Above $73,000 Bearish as this may be, there is hope. The analyst observes that though the RSI is below the 80% mark, this is not the first time. On multiple occasions, Bitcoin prices recover steadily when the RSI falls to this level. Nonetheless, this doesn’t happen all the time. As this is a concern, traders should closely monitor how price action pans out in the coming days. A drop toward the $60,000 mark will pour cold water into the current momentum, signaling the start of a possible correction. Related Reading: Cardano (ADA) Reclaims Top 10 Crypto Spot, Analysts Set New Targets Even with this outlook, the analyst is bullish. In a separate post, the analyst said if Bitcoin shakes off weakness and climbs towards $73,000, the coin may rally strongly. When this happens, the analyst expects a new influx of fresh liquidity, especially in the futures market. The inflow, in turn, could drive prices to new levels, perhaps even above all-time highs. All the same, before this happens, BTC needs to gather momentum. This surge will happen, especially if there is a decisive close above the $65,000 resistance line. Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView
China remains a major player in the Bitcoin mining industry despite imposing a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies in 2021.
An analyst has explained why Bitcoin could end the year 2024 inside the $108,000 to $155,000 range if history repeats for the asset. Bitcoin Performance Has Been Similar To Last Two Cycles So Far In a new post on X, analyst James Van Straten has discussed about the BTC price performance from the cycle low chart for the last couple of cycles. As its name suggests, this chart captures the price trend between successive cyclical lows. For the latest cycle, the start-point is naturally the bottom that was observed shortly following the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX back in late 2022. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hype Remains Low Even After $63,000 Surge: Green Sign For Rally? Below is the chart shared by Van Straten, which shows how this most recent cycle has stacked against the last two so far: As is visible, the asset’s recent price performance has been remarkably similar to that witnessed in the past two cycles at the same stage. “Out of all the graphs, TA etc, Bitcoin from the cycle low continues to be the most valid,” notes the analyst. Given the similarity so far, it’s possible that the coin’s trajectory in the current cycle may continue to mimic that of the last two. Van Straten has pointed out that both these cycles finished September higher. Not just that, this is also the point at which the two began a long-lasting surge that culminated into the bull run highs. Thus, it’s possible that Bitcoin may also surge from here, if the current cycle continues to follow the last two. “If BTC were to finish EOY between the two previous cycles, which it has done for most of the current cycle, we would be looking at 108k-155k,” explains the analyst. From the latest Bitcoin price, a rally to the lower end of this range, $108,000, would mean an increase of around 70%, while that to the $155,000 upper level would suggest growth of more than 144%. Related Reading: These Altcoins Are Seeing High Whale Interest After Fed Rate Cut As always with patterns that depend on history, though, it’s not necessary that BTC would show a rally in this range to end the year. Nonetheless, the analyst says, “if we don’t get a recession, this is entirely possible.” In some other news, as market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has pointed out in an X post, Tether’s stablecoin, USDT, has reached a new high in its supply recently. As displayed in the above graph, the the USDT market cap has witnessed some sharp growth recently. With the metric’s value now nearly at $120 billion, Tether’s token has left the other stablecoins way behind. The inflows into the stablecoin can actually be relevant to Bitcoin, as capital from USDT generally tends to find its way into the original cryptocurrency. Thus, the growth to a new record suggests the investors potentially have more dry powder available to buy BTC with than ever before. BTC Price Bitcoin has gone stale after its recent recovery as its price is still trading around the $63,600 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the social media users have yet to show excessive hype around the latest Bitcoin rally, a sign that could be positive for its sustainability. Bitcoin Sentiment Ratio Has Spiked, But Value Still Not Too High According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, Bitcoin Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) has remained low through the latest rally. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive Sentiment vs. Negative Sentiment Ratio,” which, as its name suggests, measures the ratio between the positive and negative comments around BTC being made on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: These Altcoins Are Seeing High Whale Interest After Fed Rate Cut To separate the posts/threads/messages on these platforms between positive and negative, Santiment’s indicator uses a machine-learning model. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the social media users are making more posts expressing a positive sentiment than a negative one. On the other hand, it being under 1 suggests bearish messages are the norm on these platforms. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Positive Sentiment vs. Negative Sentiment Ratio over the last few months: As the above graph shows, this Bitcoin indicator has observed an uplift alongside the latest recovery run in the cryptocurrency’s price. This rally has come as the US Federal Reserve has announced an interest rate cut. The indicator is currently decently above the neutral mark, meaning that positive posts notably outweigh the negative ones. Historically, the asset has tended to move in a direction opposite to what the crowd is expecting, with the probability of the contrary move going up the stronger this expectation becomes. A very bullish market can be a warning sign for the BTC price. Despite the recent surge in sentiment, FOMO is not yet at a level where it would be a problem. The chart shows that the previous spikes in the indicator that occurred around the tops for Bitcoin were of a significantly large scale. The last few months have also seen the indicator generally maintain a positive level, so the metric’s current value isn’t even that out of place when compared to the norm. “Markets can roll until we see a bullish sentiment spike similar to what we saw during the April 19th and May 21st tops,” notes the analytics firm. If FOMO does end up spiking to high levels in the coming days, BTC could encounter another top. Related Reading: Crypto Shorts Suffer $147 Million Squeeze As Bitcoin Returns Above $63,000 When that happens, another foray into the negative sentiment zone could be to wait since, as highlighted in the graph, the last two such instances proved to be profitable buying points into Bitcoin. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed a surge of almost 6% over the past week, bringing its price back to the $63,200 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the cryptocurrency sector as a whole has witnessed a high amount of liquidations following the volatility Bitcoin and others have gone through. Bitcoin Has Recovered Back Above The $63,000 Level Following the news of the US Federal Reserve cutting back on interest rates, Bitcoin has responded positively, with its price breaking above the [...]
The post Crypto Shorts Suffer $147 Million Squeeze As Bitcoin Returns Above $63,000 appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
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