Bitcoin Slips Under $67,000: Can BTC Rely On This Historical Support Again?

Bitcoin has observed a plunge during the past day, taking the asset’s price under $67,000. Here’s the historical support level that the asset could visit next. Bitcoin Is Now Not Far From The Short-Term Holder Realized Price As analyst James Van Straten pointed out in a post on X, the Realized Price of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders has been going up recently and currently sits around the $64,000 level. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor in the BTC market. This indicator is based on the “Realized Cap” model for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery When the asset’s spot price is greater than the Realized Price, it means the investors are carrying some net unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, the coin’s value under the metric suggests the dominance of losses in the market. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific sector segment is of interest: the Short-Term Holders (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the Bitcoin STHs over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price rapidly climbed during the rally towards the all-time high price (ATH) earlier in the year. This trend naturally makes sense, as the STHs represent the new investors in the market, who would have had to buy at higher prices as the asset climbed up, thus pushing the cohort’s average up. Since BTC’s consolidation phase following the March ATH, the indicator’s uptrend has slowed, but its value is increasing nonetheless. After the latest increase, the metric has approached $64,000. Now, what significance does the Realized Price of the STHs have? Historically, this indicator has taken turns acting as a major support and resistance line for the cryptocurrency. During bullish periods, this metric can facilitate bottom formations for the cryptocurrency, thus keeping it above itself, while bearish trends generally witness the line acting as a barrier preventing the coin from escaping above it. Transitions beyond this level have generally reflected a flip trend for the coin. This apparent pattern has held up likely because the STHs, being the relatively inexperienced hands, can be quite reactive. The cost basis is an important level for any investor, but this cohort, in particular, can be more likely to panic when a retest of their cost basis takes place. When the sentiment in the market is bullish, the STHs could decide to buy more when the price drops to their average cost basis, believing the drawdown to be merely a “dip” opportunity. In bearish phases, though, they may react to such a retest by panic selling instead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Next Top At $89,200, Crypto Analyst Suggests The chart shows that Bitcoin found support around this line during the crash at the end of April/start of May, potentially implying a bullish sentiment has continued to be dominant. With BTC seeing a drop below $67,000 in the past day and the STH Realized Price closing in at $64,000, it will be interesting to see how a potential retest would play out this time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,800, down over 3% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Loses Historical Level, Analyst Says Reclaim And Bounce, Or Die

An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin recently closed below a historically important on-chain level, a failure to reclaim which could spell trouble for BTC. Bitcoin Fell Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis In Latest Crash In a new post on X, Maartunn discussed BTCs recent close below the realized price of the short-term holders and [...]

The post Bitcoin Loses Historical Level, Analyst Says Reclaim And Bounce, Or Die appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

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Bitcoin Retests Resistance: Heres The Level A Break Could Lead To

Data shows Bitcoin is currently retesting a major on-chain resistance level, and a break above which can potentially lead to a surge in its price. Bitcoin Has Major On-Chain Resistance Around $67,000 As pointed out by analyst Ali in a post on X, BTC may be able to see a rise towards the $72,900 level if the asset can break the current on-chain resistance barrier. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern In on-chain analysis, any level’s potential to act as support or resistance is measured using the amount of Bitcoin that was acquired/bought by the investors around said level. The analyst has shared the chart for the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD) indicator from Glassnode, that reveals how the various levels around the current spot value of BTC are looking like right now based on the density of supply that was last bought at them. Looks like there is significant resistance coming up ahead at the $72,900 mark | Source: @ali_charts on X The URPD here is “ATH partitioned,” which means that the price ranges here are defined by dividing the levels between zero and the current all-time high (ATH) into 100 equal partitions. From the chart, it’s visible that the partition around the $66,990 level carries the cost basis of a notable amount of the supply right now (1.3%). This also happens to be the range BTC is retesting at the moment. Generally, the cost basis is a special level for investors, and thus, they tend to be more likely to show some reaction when a retest takes place. If a large number of holders share their cost basis inside the same narrow range, then this reaction may result in a scale that could be relevant for the market. As for what direction this reaction from the holders would be probable to happen depends on the side the retest is happening from. A retest from under (meaning that these holders had been in loss prior to the retest) could lead to a selling reaction in the market. This is because these investors may not want to risk the cryptocurrency declining again in the future, so exiting while they have the opportunity to at their break-even might be tempting. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode As such, retests like these can lead to the asset feeling some degree of resistance. In the current case, the range is notably filled up with coins, so it’s possible that the strength of this resistance would be just as powerful. From the chart, it’s visible that after this range, the asset potentially faces no strong on-chain resistance barriers until the $72,879 level, which hosts the cost basis of about 1.61% of the supply. “If Bitcoin can break past $66,990, it will likely rise toward $72,880!” says Ali. BTC Price Bitcoin has been climbing up in the past day, with its price now reaching the $67,200 level. Should this surge be sustained, the asset would be through the current resistance block. The price of the coin appears to have been going up over the past couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Near Crucial Retest: Which Of These Historical Patterns Will Repeat?

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is near a crucial retest currently that may decide where the cryptocurrency will go next from here. Which Pattern Will Bitcoin Follow Next: 2016 Or 2019? As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC SOPR for short-term holders is approaching the baseline. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors are selling/moving their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the market is realizing some amount of profit with their selling currently. On the other hand, values below this threshold suggest loss taking is the dominant force in the market at the moment. Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to the 1 baseline implies the total amount of profits being realized are exactly canceling out the amount of losses as the market as a whole is neutral. This SOPR is for the entire Bitcoin market, but in the context of the current discussion, the relevant version of the metric is the one for just a single segment of the market: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STH group includes all the investors who purchased their coins less than 155 days ago. This cohort generally includes the weak hands of the market, who may easily react to fluctuations in the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day and 365-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the last few years: Looks like both the metrics have been above the baseline in recent days: Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the 90-day MA of the Bitcoin STH SOPR (colored in yellow) broke out above the 1 baseline back when this rally first started around the beginning of the year. This breakout suggested a shift towards profit selling for these investors, something that has historically been observed in all previous major rallies in the cryptocurrency. With the latest leg in the Bitcoin rally above the $30,000 mark, the 365-day MA of the indicator (highlighted in blue) has also managed to climb up above this mark. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Spikes, Is This Bearish? While this has been happening, though, the 90-day MA has actually been heading down and is now about to cross below the 365-day MA as it approaches the 1 baseline. In the chart, the quant has marked the two previous instances where a trend similar to this had formed for the asset. It looks like back in 2016 when the 90-day MA had retested the 1 mark after a similar structure had taken shape, the metric had found support at the break-even mark. This rebound kept Bitcoin going and the coin eventually built up into a bull market. In 2019, though, the retest of the 90-day MA STH SOPR failed and a bearish trend once again took over the coin. It wouldn’t be until 160 days later that bullish sentiment returned and the rally happened. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Broken This Open Interest Pattern, Quant Explains As the current Bitcoin market looks to be in a similar spot as these two historical occurrences, it’s possible that it may follow the lead of one of these. It now remains to be seen, as to which of these patterns the asset might exhibit this time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $30,300, down 1% in the last week. BTC has surged during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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This Bitcoin Metric Is At A Crucial Junction, Will Bulls Find Victory?

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is currently retesting a crucial level that could decide the direction the market takes from here. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Plunged To A Value Of 1 As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the short-term holders are currently selling at their break-even mark. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR), which tells us whether Bitcoin investors are moving their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder in the market is currently selling their coins at a profit. On the other hand, the indicator having values below this threshold suggests the market as a whole is realizing a net amount of loss. The level at which SOPR becomes exactly equal to one implies that the loss realization is exactly equal to the profit realization right now, and hence, the average investor is just breaking even on their investment. In the context of the current topic, the entire market isn’t of interest; only a segment of it: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs include all BTC investors that bought their coins within the last 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 14-day moving average (MA) Bitcoin SOPR specifically for these STHs over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant Historically, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has followed a curious pattern. During bullish periods, the indicator has generally stayed above the line where the metric’s value becomes 1. This makes sense, as rallies allow the STHs many profit-taking opportunities, so the majority should be selling at some gains. Related Reading: PEPE Unlikely To Be As Big As DOGE & SHIB, Says Santiment What’s actually interesting, though, is that whenever the metric has dropped to the 1 line, it has provided support to the price (and has also made the indicator rebound back above it). Examples of this have been marked with the green arrows in the graph. As already mentioned before, the 1 line signifies the level where the average STH is just breaking even, meaning that they are selling at the price at which they acquired their coins, that is, their cost basis. The reason why this level acts as support during bullish trends is that the investors see their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity (since they believe the price would go up in the near future). So, a large amount of buying takes place here. Related Reading: Aura Around PEPE Isn’t Good For The Market, Especially Bitcoin – Here’s Why In bear markets, the opposite behavior is seen; the level acts as resistance to the price since selling tends to happen at it. Because of this pattern, the indicator’s behavior about the 1 level can provide hints about whether a bullish or a bearish regime is active currently. Recently, the indicator has once again dipped to this crucial level. If the Bitcoin rally is still on right now, then the Bitcoin STH SOPR should observe a rebound here. This has already happened once during this rally, as the price felt support at this level back in March. If, however, the retest ends up failing, then it may mean that a transition back to a bearish period may have occurred for the cryptocurrency. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,000, down 2% in the last week. Looks like BTC has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin MVRV At Critical Level: Will A Break Happen?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) is at a critical level currently. Will a bullish breakout take place? Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is Retesting The 1.5 Level Right Now As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC MVRV ratio has been around a critical level recently. The “MVRV ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its realized cap. The “realized cap” here refers to a capitalization model for the asset that assumes that the true value of each coin in the circulating supply is not the current spot price, but the price at which the coin was last transferred on the blockchain. This model aims to find a sort of “real value” for the coin, so its comparison with the market cap in the MVRV ratio can tell us how the current spot price (that is, the market cap) weighs up against this fair value. When the indicator has a value greater than one, it means that the market cap is more than the realized cap right now. In this situation, the investors are holding more value than they put in, so they become more likely to sell and harvest these profits. Thus, this kind of trend can suggest the asset is becoming overpriced and a correction may be on the horizon. On the other hand, low values imply the market cap of the cryptocurrency may be undervalued at the moment as the average investor is holding their coins at a loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the last few years: Looks like the value of the metric has gone up recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio had been below the one mark back during most of the second half of 2022. This isn’t an unusual trend, as bearish periods normally see investors going into deep losses, which naturally results in the indicator’s value plunging. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Tight Range: Will BTC Decompress With A Big Move? What’s interesting, though, is the metric’s interaction with the line where its value becomes 1. While bearish trends last, the level usually provides resistance to the asset. Examples of this happening during the past year’s bear market can be seen in the chart. With the rally this year, however, Bitcoin was able to break past this level, implying that a transition toward a bullish regime had occurred. The indicator briefly dropped to this level in March, but the line provided support to it, confirming that a bullish trend was indeed active. The MVRV ratio has now recently surged towards the 1.5 level, at which the market cap is 50% more than the realized cap. At these values, the asset naturally starts becoming overpriced and the risk of corrections goes up. From the graph, it’s visible that the coin found resistance at this 1.5 level when it was retested back in April. Since surging back toward it recently, the cryptocurrency has been moving sideways around this level so far. Related Reading: Polygon Volume Registers Sharp Increase, What Does It Mean? It now remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin MVRV ratio can break through this level with the current retest, or if it will end up facing another rejection. Naturally, if it’s the former, the rally might be able to continue. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $30,500, down 2% in the last week. BTC's price action continues to be stale | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin Market At Decision Point: Will This On-Chain Retest Be Successful?

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin metric is approaching a crucial retest that can make or break a rally. Will the bulls come out on top? Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Is Nearing 1 Level According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a successful retest here would be constructive for the price of the asset. The indicator of interest here is the “realized profit/loss ratio,” which measures the ratio between the profits and losses that Bitcoin investors throughout the network are realizing right now. The metric works by going through the on-chain history of each coin being sold to see what price it was last acquired at. If this previous price for any coin was less than the BTC value that it’s now being sold/moved at, then the coin’s sale is said to be realizing some amount of profit. Naturally, the opposite case would imply that loss realization is occurring with the coin’s movement. The metric takes the sum of all such profits and losses being harvested in the market and finds the ratio between them. When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market as a whole is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values under this threshold imply losses are more dominant in the sector right now. In the context of the current discussion, the realized profit/loss ratio for the entire market is actually not the metric of focus, but the version specifically for the “short-term holders” (STHs) is. The STHs are one of the two major groups in the Bitcoin market and include all the investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Historically Tight Range, Calm Before The Storm? Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) BTC STH realized profit/loss ratio over the last couple of years: The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day EMA Bitcoin STH realized profit/loss ratio has been above 1 during the past few months, suggesting that profit realization has been the dominant force. This naturally makes sense, as the rally occurred during this period, which would have made it so that these investors would be in plenty of profits. Recently, however, the metric has been going down as the price has observed a decline. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator is now closing in toward the 1 mark. The 1 line has historically held immense significance for the market, as it serves as the point where the STHs are just breaking even on their selling. During bearish periods, this line has usually provided resistance to the price of Bitcoin, while it has switched to being a support point during bullish regimes. The reason behind this interesting pattern lies in the fact that investors look at their break-even mark very differently between the two types of markets. Related Reading: Chainlink (LINK) Whale Transfers Spike, Bearish Sign? In a bearish environment, investors see the break-even mark as an ideal exiting point, as that way, they can at least avoid getting into losses. Thus, a lot of selling takes place at the level, leading to the price feeling resistance. Similarly, the investors look at the level as a profitable buying opportunity during rallies, so they participate in some buying at it. Obviously, if the current rally has to have any chance at going, this retest of the 1 level would have to be successful. If a breakdown happens here, however, then a bearish regime might return for Bitcoin. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,000, up 1% in the last week. BTC has been moving sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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These Bitcoin Metrics Are At Important Retests, Will Bullish Trend Prevail?

On-chain data shows two Bitcoin indicators are currently retesting levels that have historically been relevant for the market’s course. Bitcoin NUPL For Both Short-Term & Mid-Term Holders Is Neutral Currently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC NUPL has been retesting crucial levels recently. The “Net Unrealized Profit/Loss” (NUPL) is a metric that keeps track of the net amount of profit or loss that investors are holding currently. This indicator works by looking through the on-chain history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous transfer price for any coin was less than the current spot price of Bitcoin, then that particular coin is holding a profit right now. The NUPL counts this profit that the coin is holding in the unrealized profit. Similarly, the loss that underwater coins are holding gets included in the unrealized loss. The metric then takes the difference between these two numbers to find the net profit/loss status of the entire market. In the context of the current discussion, the entire market isn’t of interest, however, only specific sections of it are. In particular, two BTC cohorts called the “short-term holders” (STHs) and the “mid-term holders” (MTHs) are of relevance. The STHs include all investors who bought their coins within the last six months, while the MTHs are those who have been holding their coins since at least six months ago and at most 2 years ago. First, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL specifically for the STHs: Looks like the value of the metric has approached zero recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH NUPL has been positive throughout this rally that first started back in January of this year. Generally, this is the case in bullish trends, as the STHs are those who bought relatively recently, so any price rises immediately reflect on their profit/loss status. What’s more significant, however, is the indicator’s relationship with the zero mark. At this line, the STHs as a whole are neutral, meaning that their unrealized losses equal their unrealized profits. Usually, whenever the metric retests this line from above during bullish trends, it finds support and the price feels a bullish effect. This could be seen working in action during this rally alone, as the rebounds in March and June both occurred when the STH NUPL approached this line. Related Reading: Bitcoin NVT Shows Bearish Crossover, Price Drop Incoming? From the chart, it’s visible that the metric has once again fallen to this line recently. This retest may be quite important, as a plunge below could mean a reversal back toward a bearish regime. In the below graph, it’s also visible that the MTH NUPL is retesting the same line, although this indicator is approaching it from the negative zone. The metric is retesting the break-even line | Source: CryptoQuant The MTHs had been sitting in losses until now, but they are on the verge of transitioning back into profits currently. If the metric can manage to break through the level, then it would be a positive sign for the rally, as the bullish trend has historically continued whenever these investors have come back above water. Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Rebound Anytime Soon? Here’s What On-Chain Data Says The break-even line providing resistance to Bitcoin, however, is also a possibility, in which case the asset would feel a bearish effect. It now remains to be seen how this retest, as well as the one of the STH NUPL, would pan out in the coming days. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,000, down 1% in the last week. BTC continues to move sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Michael Förtsch on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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