Bitcoin Price Prints Rare Buy Signal With 84% Win Rate, $80,000 Coming?

After rising by more than 28% over the 16 days, the Bitcoin price was rejected at key resistance at $68,500 on Sunday. Since then, the BTC price is displaying a slight pullback, but according to Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, investors can expect the bullish momentum to continue. Edwards shared the chart below and stated via X, “BREAKING: Hash Ribbon buy signal just fired.” Why The Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Matter This statement is significant, as the hash ribbons have historically been a reliable indicator, with an 84% accuracy rate in predicting Bitcoin’s major price bottoms. The hash ribbons are predicated on the interplay between the Bitcoin hash ratethe total computational power used to mine and process transactionsand Bitcoin’s market price. Related Reading: Is Bitcoins Recent ETF Inflow Surge a Setup for a Fall? What Traders Need to Know Analysts observe that a drop in Bitcoin’s price or an increase in operational costs, such as electricity, may cause miners to halt operations temporarily. This period, known as ‘miner capitulation,’ is crucial because a resumption in mining activity is typically viewed as a bullish signal for Bitcoin’s price. The indicator itself is derived from the moving averages of the Bitcoin hash rate; specifically, the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. A ‘Buy’ signal occurs when the shorter-term moving average crosses above the longer-term average after a period of miner capitulation, indicating that the worst of the sell-off may be over and a recovery phase is likely imminent. Crypto analyst Jelle, known on X as @CryptoJelleNL, commented, “Hash ribbons are showing that minor capitulation is over! This signal prints after every halving event, and after major corrections — and suggests the next leg of expansion is just around the corner. Time for 80k+?” Related Reading: Mt. Gox Creditors Begin Withdrawing Owed Bitcoin And BCH Funds Via Kraken Further supporting the bullish sentiment, the account @DaFinancialPage noted on X, “Miner Capitulation. The Hash Ribbons indicator’s blue buy signal has appeared 19 times. Of those, 16 marked Bitcoin’s macro low, giving it an 84% win rate. The 3 times it didn’t, a major correction followed.” Thus, the appearance of the hash ribbon ‘Buy’ signal can be interpreted as a strong indicator for the next bullish phase in Bitcoin’s market cycle. However, the three instances when the signal failed to predict a significant rise highlight the inherent risks and uncertainties with every indicator. Notably, technical analysis aligns closely with the anticipated target of $80,000 discussed by Jelle. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension is sitting at approximately $79,337. However, before a new all-time high can be explored, Bitcoin must secure support at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $65,943 in the daily chart, which could act as a critical juncture. Subsequent levels at the 0.786 Fibonacci at $69,384 and the 1.0 Fibonacci at $73,767 serve as potential interim targets. At press time, BTC traded at $66,403. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

View Details

Bitcoin return to $71K would wipe $1.38B shorts

If Bitcoin returns to the price it had been hovering around for the previous two days before the slight dip, it would wipe out a considerable number of short positions.

View Details

Best Long-Term Bitcoin Buy Signal Flashes, Hedge Fund CEO Warns

In his latest dispatch, Charles Edwards, CEO of the Bitcoin and digital asset hedge fund Capriole, has flagged a significant market indicator in the latest edition of the firm’s newsletter, Update #51. Edwards points to the activation of the “Hash Ribbons” buy signal, a notable event that has historically indicated prime buying opportunities for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal The Hash Ribbons indicator, first introduced in 2019, utilizes mining data to predict long-term buying opportunities based on miners’ economic pressures. The signal arises from the convergence of short-term and long-term moving averages of Bitcoins hash rate, specifically when the 30-day moving average falls below the 60-day. According to Edwards, this event has “in the vast majority of cases synced with broader Bitcoin market weakness, price volatility and significantly long-term value opportunities.” The current Miner Capitulation, as highlighted by Edwards, began two weeks ago and coincides with post-halving adjustments in the mining sector. This period often leads to the shuttering of operations and even bankruptcies among less efficient miners. Edwards notes, “Just as we are seeing today, these mining rigs will typically then be phased out over several weeks following the Halving resulting in falling hash rates.” Despite the historical profitability of miners, especially with increased block fees from new applications such as Ordinals and Runes, Edwards suggests that the market should not overlook the current opportunity signaled by the latest Miner Capitulation. “While this capitulation is occurring when miners have broadly been profitable, we would be remiss not to note this rare opportunity,” stated Edwards. Related Reading: The Half-Million Dollar Bitcoin: Predictions Point To Monumental Price Surge In 18 Months The Hash Ribbons have not been without their critics, with each occurrence stirring debate about the current relevance and accuracy of the signal. Edwards addressed these criticisms by referencing the previous years signal, which correlated with Bitcoin trading in the $20,000 range, reinforcing the indicator’s predictive strength. “Every occurrence brings some debate about their relevance today, or why the current signal perhaps doesnt count,” Edwards explained. Edwards recommends that the safest approach to leveraging the Hash Ribbons is by waiting for confirmation through renewed hash rate growth and a positive price trend. He concludes, “The safest (lowest volatility opportunity) to allocate to the Hash Ribbons strategy is on confirmation of the Hash Ribbon Buy which is triggered by renewed Hash Rate growth (30DMA>60DMA) and a positive price trend (as defined by the 10DMA>20DMA of price).” Broader Market Context Transitioning from the technical to the contextual, Edwards discusses the changing regulatory landscape that has recently become more favorable to cryptocurrencies. The SECs approval of an Ethereum ETF, categorizing ETH as a commodity, marks a significant shift in the regulatory approach towards cryptocurrencies and reflects growing institutional acceptance. Related Reading: Is This The Biggest Bitcoin Bull Run Ever? Analyst Says Yes! “The reclassification of Ethereum and the approval of its ETF represent a pivotal shift in governmental stance on cryptocurrencies,” Edwards notes. “This could lead to increased institutional involvement and potentially more stability in the crypto markets.” Furthermore, Edwards points to macroeconomic factors that could influence Bitcoin’s value. The expansion of the M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates are designed to stimulate economic activity. However, Edwards warns of the potential long-term consequences of these policies, such as inflation, which could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against monetary devaluation. “Bitcoin was conceptualized as an alternative to traditional financial systems in times of economic stress,” Edwards remarks. “The current economic policies reinforce the fundamental reasons for Bitcoin’s existence and could lead to increased adoption.” On the technical front, Edwards provides an analysis of Bitcoins price movements, highlighting the recent breakout and consolidation above critical resistance levels. He sets a conditional mid-term price target of $100,000, contingent upon the market sustaining its current momentum and the monthly close remaining above a critical threshold of $58,000. At press time, BTC traded at $69,008. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

View Details

Ethena (ENA) Is The LUNA Of This Cycle With 20x Potential: Expert

Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, has sparked significant interest and debate within the cryptocurrency community. He heralded Ethena (ENA) as “the Luna of this cycle,” but with a crucial difference: its economic fundamentals are deemed sustainable. Edwards elaborated, “It’s 100% collateralized and the yield is variable based on market forces. Two things Luna wasn’t.” He also noted that at its zenith, Luna’s valuation exceeded ENA’s current market cap by more than twenty-fold, yet he cautioned, “ENA is not risk-free, custody and execution risk exist.” Ethena is the Luna of this cycle, except the underlying economics are actually sustainable. It's 100% collateralized and the yield is variable based on market forces. Two things Luna wasn't. At it's peak LUNA was over 20X bigger than what ENA is now. ENA is not risk free, custody — Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 10, 2024 Since its launch on April 2, ENA has seen a meteoric rise from under $0.30 to a high of $1.45. This rally is largely attributed to Ethena Labs’ strategic enhancement of its rewards program, now in its “Season 2,” which offers a 50% reward boost for users locking their ENA tokens for at least seven days. This move aims to bolster user engagement and loyalty, fostering a sustainable ecosystem for the Ethena platform. Related Reading: Ethenas (ENA) Crucial Role In Bitcoin Bull Market: Expert Identifies Critical Factors For Sustainable Growth A remarkable aspect of this ecosystem is the rapid growth of its stablecoin, USDe, which has outstripped the supply growth of established counterparts such as USDT, USDC, and DAI, reaching a $2 billion supply in just over 100 days. USDe is the fastest growing USD denominated asset in the history of crypto pic.twitter.com/xgiRJjf96t — G | Ethena (@leptokurtic_) April 8, 2024 However, the project’s high yields which are generated by harnessing the derivative markets and staked Ethereum have stirred skepticism among industry experts. Fantom founder Andre Cronje, among others, has raised concerns about the sustainability of these yields, which are the highest in the entire crypto industry. Risks Involved With Ethena Noteworthy, ENA is often compared to Terra Luna (LUNA), but the differences could not be much bigger, as Edwards also noted. While ENA is not risk free, a demise like the one of LUNA is highly unlikely. Despite that, investors need to be aware of other risks involved with ENA. Diving deeper into the discussion of risks, CL (@CL207) from eGirl Capital offers an intriguing perspective on the behavior of derivatives traders. She clarifies, It appears Ethena is making many people who dont trade derivatives have a really hard time wrapping their heads around the fact that derivatives traders are so genuinely retarded that we’re willing to pay like 50%+ APR to enter a position. Related Reading: Ethena (ENA) Surges 60%, But Fantom Co-Founder Warns Of Luna-Like Demise Notably, last cycle crypto traders were bidding futures so high that Bitcoin quarterlies earned a locked-in >50% apr. She added, just 50 days into 2021, we collectively paid 2,400,000,000$ in funding rates by the end of 2021, the market has paid as much as a decently sized country’s GDP. Monetsupply.eth (@MonetSupply) from Block Analitica provides a granular analysis of the risks Andre Cronje highlighted. Through his examination, several key areas of concern are outlined: Oracle Risk: The potential impact on exchange positions due to Ethena providing inaccurate quotes on minting or redeeming operations. However, MonetSupply notes, “there’s rate limits on this tho so max loss is constrained and counterparties are all whitelisted (can’t just run away with the money).” Liquidation Risk: Deemed not a significant factor as the portfolio is leveraged less than 1x, suggesting a conservative approach to borrowing and leverage. Spread Risk: The possibility of increased basis leading to higher funding revenue, which should theoretically attract inflows. Conversely, a negative basis might cause outflows, but Ethena could benefit from closing hedged positions profitably. Collateral Ratio Risk: Even though liquid staking tokens (LSTs) are given less than 100% weight on centralized exchanges (CEX), the overall low leverage mitigates this risk. The proportion of LST in spot collateral is relatively minor. Custody Risk: Highlighted as one of the more significant concerns, given the reliance on custodians with a good track record and the distribution of assets across multiple entities. Exchange Solvency Risk: This risk could lead to the loss of unsettled profit and loss (PnL) and some trading costs to rehedge on other exchanges. However, MonetSupply adds, “the Binance/ceffu nexus might change this assessment though, are they actually independent?” Ethena Entity Risk: The internal risk related to Ethena’s keys or authentication tokens being compromised, or a team member acting maliciously. MonetSupply concludes that despite these risks, the framework of overcollateralization on platforms like Morpho, the Maker surplus buffer, and the MKR backstop, supported by a substantial Proof of Liquidity (POL), serves as a robust mitigating factor. At press time, ENA traded at $1.329. Featured image from Bitget, chart from TradingView.com

View Details

BlackRock ETF will be 'big rubber yes stamp' for Bitcoin: Interview with Charles Edwards

Bitcoin's future is overwhelmingly bright, and short-term price pressures should not distract investors from a future global asset class, says the Capriole Investments founder.

View Details

This Is How The Bitcoin Price Will Be Affected By Macro: Charles Edwards

In a new interview, Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments shared his Bitcoin theses for 2023. Looking back at the past few months, the renowned expert said those have put the market in a position where Bitcoin offers “a great position for long-term investors.” As Edwards noted, almost every sentiment metric imaginable fell into the “biggest or second-biggest bearish” range in macro, equities, and crypto. “Pretty much anyone would have said on Twitter last year that we are in a recession or it’s coming to a recession,” the analyst continued. While Edwards acknowledged that the risk of a recession is far from gone, many key metrics have come back quite a bit. Among them is the housing market, which is slowing and often leads the overall economy. “So there are a number of metrics which suggest things are slowing down a bit. You got all the big tech names laying off employees and you see this in crypto as well. 10% to 20% cuts have not been unusual in the last months,” the founder of Capriole Investments asserted. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Resumes Increase as The Bulls Aim Larger Rally To $25K Furthermore, he pointed out an interesting fact: every time inflation peaked above 5% and then fell by more than 20%, the U.S. central bank pivoted. This observation holds true for the last 60 years. “So I think there is a high probability the Fed stops raising rates or reducing rates,” Edwards concluded and further said: And then we have this deep value situation in crypto which has been playing out the last 3 or 4 months. […] And all that sets up a great opportunity for long-term investors in crypto and equities, as well, risk assets in general. Fed Pivot Will Propel Bitcoin Upwards Within 6 Months In general, it is difficult to predict when there will be a regime change at the Fed. However, Edwards believes it will happen within the next 3-6 months. After the forced liquidations in the Bitcoin market over the past 12 months, there is currently no longer any significant selling pressure. Therefore, according to the Capriole Investments founder, there will be a liquidity crisis on the sell side once larger amounts of Bitcoin buyers return to the market, leading to a squeeze to the upside. “And we saw that kind of short-squeeze play out in the first weeks of January.” As for the Fed pivot, investors should keep an eye on specific data. While the consensus now seems to be that the Fed will change monetary policy, there are still some risks. Edwards pointed to history in this regard, warning that inflation could rise again. In the 1970s inflation went through a roller coaster ride and that could be the case for the next 5 to 10 years as well. But I do think the base case for me is at least a rate pause this year, at some point in the coming months. Related Reading: Banking Giant Goldman Sachs Ranks Bitcoin As World Best Performing Asset Moreover, investors should be cautious when employment remains very high. This is “probably the single most important factor leading to recessions.” While this data point is still incredibly strong currently, it could change “any month now” given the layoffs in the big tech sector, according to Edwards. Equities are also worth considering, he said. If they hit new highs, or if earnings are very strong, if manufacturing picks up and inflation is still at 5% to 6%, then the Fed might think it can keep going because everything is still fine. However, Edwards’s base case looks different: I think 2023 will generally be a positive year because the Bitcoin price will probably be higher at the end of the year […], but there will be a lot of volatility. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $23.115. Featured image from iStock, Chart from TradingView.com

View Details

Bitcoin Fundamental Expert Breaks Down Why The Bottom Is In

Calling the bottom in Bitcoin is no easy task. Prices tend to fall more dramatically and faster than anyone is prepared for and is the investing equivalent of catching a falling knife. Yet if anyone is equipped to accurately call the bottom in crypto, it would be Charles Edwards, fund manager and Bitcoin fundamental expert, responsible for creating some of the most famous tools in crypto.  Meet The Creator Of The Most Profitable Bitcoin Buy Signal Although you might not know Charles Edwards by name, you might have heard of some of his tools before. The Hash Ribbons, once known as the most profitable signal in Bitcoin ever, is among his custom toolset of crypto-specific indicators.  Related Reading: Bitcoin At $1,000: Looking Back At Nine Years Of Bull Run In a recent Twitter thread, Edward unveils a series of on-chain signals that present a strong case as to why the bear market bottom in crypto could be in.  Among the arguments made include the price per BTC dropping below the electrical cost of generating each coin, plus MVRV-Z score and long-term NUPL are at previous bear market lows.  Bitcoin briefly traded below its electrical cost | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com On-Chain Cases For The Bear Market Bottom Being In Entity-adjusted dormancy flow is at an all-time low, and we’ve reached the third-highest BTC miner stress event ever. Past events were back when BTC traded at $290 and $2. Bitcoin Energy Value is also at the deepest price discount it’s ever seen.  Entity-adjusted dormancy flow is at the lowest level ever | Source: Glassnode Edwards also cites that stablecoin capital is sidelined in USDT and USDC and hasn’t left the industry due to FTX — its just waiting for a reversal to reenter safely.  He also points to miner capitulation in the Hash Ribbons.  Related Reading: For First Time Ever, Bitcoin Hash Ribbon Golden Cross Has Failed The only problem is that the last time the tool fired, the previously profitable signal failed to yield any positive results for the first time since it was created. Will this signal redeem the indicator? Will this coming buy signal do the trick? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Bitcoin price is trading at approximately $17,000 per coin, or roughly 77% down from all-time highs. Past drawdowns concluded at 96%, 86%, and 84%. What will the final number be for this market cycle? Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

View Details

Bitcoin Price Will Skyrocket To $280,000 Next Year: Hedge Fund Manager

Renowned crypto asset hedge fund manager Charles Edwards has made a bold prediction regarding the future price of Bitcoin. Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, shared his insights via X (formerly Twitter), outlining a compelling case for Bitcoin’s potential to reach $280,000 in the coming year. In his statement, Edwards referenced historical data and several key factors that could drive Bitcoin’s price to new heights. He began by comparing Bitcoin’s performance after the 2020 halving event, stating, “If Bitcoin’s post halving returns are the same as 2020, we are looking at $280K Bitcoin next year.” Bitcoin Price Could Top $300,000 Next Year As the chart by Edwards shows, the third bull run in 2020 was rather subdued in comparison to the previous ones. The first bull market (halving cycle) in 2012 saw Bitcoin price peak at $1132, marking a dramatic increase of 8,996% over 11 months (335 days). The second bull run in 2016 ended in December 2017 when the price reached approximately $20,000, marking a 2,089% increase over 17 months (518 days). Edwards acknowledged that some might argue that profits diminish with each cycle. However, he made a counterpoint that 2020’s performance was pinned down due to main factors. First, Edwards attributed the lackluster performance of the 2020 bull market to China’s decision to ban Bitcoin mining, which led to a 50% reduction in hash rate and had a stifling effect on Bitcoin. Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin Price Not Going Up Despite The ETFs? Expert Explains Second, he highlighted the aggressive tightening measures taken by the Federal Reserve, which negatively impacted Bitcoin’s performance during that period, stating, “2020 was the worst Bitcoin bull market in history. I believe overall performance was pinned down due to the -50% destruction of mining network by China and the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in history.” However, Edwards expressed optimism about the future, pointing to a contrasting economic landscape in 2024. He stated, “In fact, 2024 marks the polar opposite to 2021. QE has resumed and the Fed has started easing, with Fed chair Powell expecting 3 cuts this year. A weaker dollar = a stronger Bitcoin.” He also compared the upcoming launch of Bitcoin ETFs in January to a “second halving,” highlighting the potential market impact, saying, “Further, I consider the January Bitcoin ETF launches as powerful as a ‘second halving’.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Holders Moving Big: Number Of Whale Wallets Reaches Highest Count In 15 Months Drawing parallels to the gold market, Edwards emphasized that Bitcoin’s current market cap of around $800 billion is significantly smaller than gold’s market cap when the GLD ETF launched in 2004. He noted that gold experienced a parabolic rise of over 300% in just seven years following the launch of the ETF, stating, “With a market cap of around $3.3T, Gold commenced a parabolic rise of over 300% to $13T in under 7 years. Bitcoin’s market cap today is just over $800B. Smaller assets are generally capable of experiencing larger upside returns.” Furthermore, Edwards underscored the rapid growth of Bitcoin, asserting that it is currently outpacing the adoption rate of the Internet, saying, “Bitcoin is currently growing faster than the Internet.” The hedge fund manager concluded by summarizing his prediction, stating: A 500% return over the 18 months following the halving would not be unusual for Bitcoin historically. An additional 300% return over the next 2-5 years from the ETFs alone would be a conservative assumption. When you drill it down to the two most important factors for Bitcoin this cycle, and add them together, it’s easy to arrive at a conservative Bitcoin price of $300K in the next couple of years. At press time, BTC traded at $43,134. Featured image from YouTube / Blockworks, chart from TradingView.com

View Details

Bitcoin Price Could Easily Double In A Short Time, Predicts Hedge Fund CEO

In the latest episode of The Milk Road Show, Charles Edwards, founder of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments, provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s current state, its future trajectory, and the potential conclusion of the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle. Edwards posits that Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 could be the catalyst for an unprecedented price acceleration. [...]

The post Bitcoin Price Could Easily Double In A Short Time, Predicts Hedge Fund CEO appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

View Details