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Can Historical Election Trends Predict Bitcoins Next Move?
Ian Rogers of Ledger stresses the importance of self-custody and warns against complacency during crypto market booms.
The behavior of Bitcoins value during the 2023-2024 market cycle can be divided into four phases. Daan Crypto Trades highlighted in a recent post on X that these stages consist of two rallies and two consolidation periods with the second phase of each stage longer than the first. This pattern makes it easier to describe […]
The long-held belief in the crypto market’s predictable four-year cycle, characterized by distinct phases of accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend, is being questioned by top-analyst Jordan Fish, better known as Cobie. He articulated an argument that challenges this traditional view, suggesting that the concept of a cyclic market may no longer hold true. Cobie ignited a debate on X (formerly Twitter) with his assertion, “Unironically [the bull run] has not even started yet.” This statement was met with incredulity by some, such as Maher Abdelsala, who remarked, “Brother people think you are serious lol.” Cobie clarified his stance, stating, “I am serious! Increasingly I like the argument that this is not even a ‘cycle’, really, but it’s more like 2019 with leverage and ETFs.” The End Of The Traditional Crypto Cycle? Cobies perspective hinges on the notion that the structural dynamics of the crypto market have fundamentally changed. He draws parallels to the market conditions of 2019, but with significant differences influenced by the proliferation of leverage and the introduction of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). “Was 2019 a new ‘cycle’ or was it part of the bear market?” Cobie pondered. “Floated this idea to a few people in March but everyone told me I was an idiot, which I am, but still it was quite rude to say that to my face.” Related Reading: Crypto Market Liquidations Top $197 Million As Bitcoin Price Plunges Below $60,000 The introduction of ETFs and the increased use of leverage have brought new complexities to the market. These instruments have changed how capital flows into and out of the crypto ecosystem, creating a less predictable and more fragmented market landscape. Cobie emphasized, “Of course if we’re in 2019-looking-2024, it doesn’t mean 2020 plays out the same way, because structurally so much is different now with ETFs and high FDVs and shit, probably too difficult to pattern match too much stuff about the future.” Cobies analysis suggests that the current market exhibits a high degree of dispersion, where various assets behave differently rather than moving in unison as seen in previous cycles. This dispersion makes it challenging to identify a single driving force or pattern that governs the entire market. “I think this cycle is so unlike any other cycle it’s probably better to just stop thinking of cycles altogether,” Cobie stated. “It’s clear there is no one single thread pulling everything forward like it did before.” Related Reading: Not All Hope Is Lost: Crypto Analyst Weighs In On The Markets Performance This view is reinforced by the performance of certain cryptocurrencies. For instance, Chainlink (LINK) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are cited by Cobie as examples where the traditional hype and subsequent price appreciation may no longer apply. He explained, “I think there’s a very strong likelihood stuff like that could potentially never make new highs again and LINK could just keep existing as a wildly successful oracle without the price appreciation.” The Echo Bubble Phenomenon In the context of market maturity, Cobie referenced the concept of the “echo bubble,” popularized by the renowned trader GCR (Global Coin Research). The echo bubble theory posits that a smaller bubble follows the burst of a larger one, as observed in 2019 following the massive rally in 2017. Cobie expressed surprise at GCR’s recent market behavior, noting, “I actually found it pretty weird GCR kept talking about the echo bubble when he was bullish at the picobottom but then when shit started getting silly he just bought the dogwithhat NFT and broke his hiatus to come and tell people not to sell.” Overall, Cobie believes that the market is currently in a “multi-month/quarter cool-off reaccumulation period” for Bitcoin. He expects Bitcoin to trade within a range of $45,000 to $70,000, with a possibility of a brief breakout to new highs. However, he is pessimistic about the future of many altcoins, particularly those that have survived multiple market cycles. “I def think all the sudden memecoin theses marked an intermediary top for overall risk appetite, and everyone has been conditioned to max long as soon as they think we’re ready to go for it again.” He anticipates that many of these older altcoins will “slowly bleed away and become irrelevant” as speculative investments. This outlook suggests that the market’s risk-on paradigm, characterized by rapid and extensive price increases, may not resume anytime soon. He concludes, “So long story short I think we need a lot more time before the (real) risk on paradigm starts again and I expect more downside to come before it happens.” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $51,104. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin's 2024 bull run was mainly driven by institutional inflows, which could be the key to unlocking the next leg up.
The price of Bitcoin has shown no significant movement in the last day rising by only 0.78% according to data from CoinMarketCap. Following a widescale crash in the global financial markets, the crypto market leader pulled off a strong recovery in the past week, gaining by 16% to reach a peak of $62,000. As Bitcoin [...]
The post Bitcoin To Rally To $250,000 If This Condition Is Met, Analyst Says appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
Bitcoin price has dropped to a worrying low, leading some traders to throw in the towel and claim the bull run is over.
The CEO and founder of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how this Bitcoin bull cycle could probably last till mid-2025. Profit-Taking From Old Bitcoin Whales Lasted For 18 Months In Previous Cycles In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about a pattern that old whales have followed in terms of profit-taking during the past cycles. “Old whales take profits during bull markets,” notes Young Ju. “Their selling brings new capital into accumulation addresses, raising realized prices.” Accumulation Addresses refer to the Bitcoin wallets that have no history of selling. These addresses also have a few other conditions, such as they must have at least two deposits and shouldn’t be connected to miners or centralized exchanges. They should also carry a balance of at least 10 BTC, and their last transaction should have been within the past seven years. Related Reading: Shiba Inu, XRP Forming Bullish Divergence, Analytics Firm Reveals The Accumulation Addresses basically reflect the perennial HODLers of the market, who only buy more and never sell. During bull markets, as old whales break their silence to harvest their profits, demand from these HODLers absorbs the selling. To display this trend, the CryptoQuant CEO has made use of the “Realized Price” metric, which keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor belonging to this cohort. When the value of this indicator is above the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the cohort as a whole is in a state of unrealized loss right now. On the other hand, it being under BTC’s value implies these diamond hands are currently carrying profits. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for the Bitcoin Accumulation Addresses over the past decade: As shown in the above graph, the Realized Price for this cohort observed a rise during the last two Bitcoin bull runs. This would suggest that these HODLers were buying as prices were going up, thus raising their average cost basis. This accumulation likely corresponded to profit-taking from other entities in the market. As Young Ju has pointed out, this profit-taking spree lasted for about 18 months in these past cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes To $64,000: Will This Historical Support Hold? From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has once again started showing an uptrend with the price rally this year. This would suggest that the Accumulation Addresses are back to absorbing profit-taking from old whales. So far, this rise has lasted for around four months, which means that there could still be around another fourteen months of it left, if the last two cycles are anything to go by. Based on this, the analyst thinks this latest Bitcoin bull cycle could end up running into mid-2025. BTC Price Bitcoin has edged close to the $70,000 level during the past day after observing a surge of around 3%. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto exchange Bitget and Nansen Research collaborated to help exchanges evaluate the potential of a cryptocurrency depending on the token cycle.
Bitcoins decisive move above $65,000 and miners' return to deep profitability could lead to BTC hitting $220,000.
Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the market, recently touched the crucial $70,000 level, proving to be a significant hurdle for its price consolidation in recent months. Despite surpassing its previous high and reaching a record all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 in March, BTC experienced a 20% price correction to around $56,500 at the beginning [...]
The post The Half-Million Dollar Bitcoin: Predictions Point To Monumental Price Surge In 18 Months appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021. Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been [...]
The post This Historical Ethereum Top Signal Is Yet To Appear This Cycle appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
The Bitcoin price has experienced heightened volatility over the past week. After recovering from a low of $56,500, the largest cryptocurrency in the market surged to $65,500 within four days. However, it has since retraced some of its gains and is currently testing the $61,000 support level. Despite this volatility and the absence of strong bullish momentum, venture capital firm Pantera Capital remains optimistic about the future of BTC’s price, citing the recent Halving event as a significant factor. Pantera Capital Projects $117,000 Price Target By 2025 In a recent investor letter, Pantera Capital revealed its Bitcoin Halving rallies model, which predicts a bottoming out of the BTC price followed by a rise through the Halving rally. Based on the average duration of previous rallies, the firm forecasts that BTC’s price will peak at $117,000 in August 2025. The average total duration of this cycle, encompassing pre- and post-Halving rallies, has historically been around 2.6 years, with symmetry observed across cycles. Related Reading: What Triggered The 6,350% Spike In XRP Long Liquidations Compared To Shorts? Pantera Capital highlights the relationship between Halving events and BTC’s price. The firm asserts that if the demand for new Bitcoin remains constant while the supply of new Bitcoin is reduced by half, it will create upward pressure on the price. The anticipation of a price increase has also historically driven increased demand for Bitcoin leading up to Halving events. However, Pantera Capital acknowledges that the impact of each subsequent Halving on price may diminish as the reduction in the supply of new Bitcoin from previous Halvings becomes less significant. Moreover, the firm notes that, on average, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has nearly doubled in value for eleven years. Based on this historical performance, Pantera Capital envisions a scenario in which the price of Bitcoin reaches $117,000 by 2025. Bullish Bitcoin Price Predictions Renowned crypto analyst Titan of Crypto has recently taken to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to share bullish predictions for the Bitcoin price. With forecasts ranging from $75,000 to $110,000, Titan of Crypto highlights various factors and patterns that could potentially drive BTCs growth. According to Titan of Crypto, a price rise to $110,000 for Bitcoin is “programmed.” While the analyst did not elaborate on the specifics of this programming, it suggests a strong conviction in BTC’s potential to reach that level. Titan of Crypto also identifies a current head-and-shoulders pattern in the Bitcoin price chart. If this pattern holds, the analyst suggests that BTC could rise to the $75,000 mark. If confirmed, this pattern could signify a bullish trend reversal and further support the projection of Bitcoin reaching higher price levels. Related Reading: Analyst Narrows Down Timeline For Bitcoin Peak This Bull Cycle The analyst also highlighted $61,500 as a critical point to monitor due to the possibility of panic selling. The analyst suggests many market participants might react to this level, potentially increasing selling pressure. Lastly, based on his analysis, the analyst suggests a conservative price prediction of $108,000. However, Titan of Crypto believes that BTC’s price may exceed this projection, indicating a more optimistic outlook. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
XRP is trading at a pivotal level as the broader crypto market regains strength and bullish sentiment returns. While macro uncertainty and volatility persist, XRP has remained resilient, holding firmly above key demand zones. The asset is now attempting to reclaim higher supply levels, with bulls pushing for a breakout that could define its next major move. Related Reading: Ethereum Consolidates As Accumulation Trend Develops New Bullish Phase Ahead? Top analyst Ali Martinez recently shared a technical view showing that XRP is currently trading within a very tight range. This period of consolidation has compressed volatility, setting the stage for a potential explosive move. According to Martinez, a decisive daily close outside this range could determine the direction of the next major trendeither a breakout toward previous highs or a drop toward lower support levels. For now, XRP appears to be leaning bullish as it tracks the momentum seen across other major cryptocurrencies. Traders are watching closely to see if XRP can reclaim the $0.70$0.75 range, which could open the door to a broader rally. Until then, the current structure suggests that XRP is coiling for a breakout, and the next few sessions could be decisive in confirming the trend ahead. XRP Trades Above $2 As Market Awaits Breakout Or Breakdown XRP is trading above the $2 mark, holding strong amid rising volatility and uncertainty across the crypto market. While bulls are showing signs of strength, they continue to struggle with the $2.35 resistance levela barrier that has capped recent upward momentum. At the same time, bears have been unable to push the price below current support levels, keeping XRP locked in a tight consolidation range. The broader market is heating up, with Bitcoin testing key resistance near all-time highs, creating an environment where altcoins like XRP could soon follow with significant moves. Analysts are closely watching this setup, with many calling for a bullish expansion phase if XRP can break through overhead resistance and confirm strength. Martinez has identified two critical levels that will likely define XRPs short-term trend: $2 and $2.26. According to Martinez, a decisive daily close outside this range could set the tone for the next major trend moveeither a breakout toward new highs or a breakdown into deeper consolidation. However, market risks remain. Ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and China continue to influence risk sentiment, and traders remain cautious as these macro factors develop. Still, XRPs price structure shows strength, and if bulls can overcome $2.35, the asset could gain serious momentum. For now, all eyes are on XRP as it coils near key levels. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether this consolidation resolves to the upside or signals another round of range-bound price action. Either way, a major move appears to be on the horizon. Related Reading: Cardano Struggles At Resistance Expert Sees A Retest of Lower Support Levels Price Analysis: Technical Details XRP is currently trading at $2.14 after bouncing off recent lows near the $2.05 level. The 4-hour chart shows the price holding just above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at $2.11 and slightly below the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.17. This positioning highlights a key zone of indecision, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war around a major support and resistance confluence. The price structure remains neutral but constructive. After a failed attempt to push above the $2.30$2.35 resistance range in late April, XRP has entered a phase of consolidation. Despite the pullback, bulls have defended the $2 psychological level multiple times, indicating strong demand in that area. Volume has remained steady, and XRP appears to be forming a higher low, which could serve as a launchpad for another attempt at the range highs. A breakout above the $2.26$2.35 zone would likely confirm bullish continuation and open the path toward $2.50 and beyond. Related Reading: Ethereum Breaks Massive Downtrend Price Structure Momentum Shift? However, a breakdown below $2.05 could invalidate the current setup and expose XRP to further downside. For now, XRP remains at a pivotal level, and the next 48 hours will be critical in determining its short-term direction. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
At Sui Basecamp, macro investor and Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal delivered a characteristically sweeping address that framed the current crypto market environment as the beginning of what he called a liquidity-driven supercycle with Bitcoin potentially reaching $450,000 before the end of it. Drawing from over three decades of macroeconomic research, Pal outlined his thesis through the lens of what he terms the Everything Code, a framework that centers on global liquidity, debt cycles, and currency debasement as the core forces shaping asset prices across all markets. Why $450,000 Bitcoin Is Possible? Bitcoins year-on-year rate of change is driven by financial conditions with a three-month lag, said Pal, pointing to the remarkably consistent correlation between total global liquidity and the price action of major assets. The correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity is 90%, and with the Nasdaq, it’s 95%. Its hard to refute that this is not what is happening. According to Pal, this correlation is not incidental it is structurally tied to how the modern macro system operates, especially in a post-2008 world characterized by chronic debt overhang and systematic liquidity injections. Pal emphasized that most people misunderstand the true driver of crypto cycles. Everyone talks about the halving, but this is about the debt refi cycle. Every four years, global debt rolls over, and central banks are forced to pump liquidity to avoid systemic collapse. He added that the average maturity of global debt is four years, concentrated in the three- to five-year sector, which naturally produces cyclical liquidity waves that coincide with market booms in crypto. The mechanism, Pal argued, is a global financial shell game: Scarce assets keep going up in price real estate, equities, art, gold. Young people cant afford them. Whats actually happening is a global taxation of 8% a year you dont understand. Add in another 3% global inflation, and youre looking at 11% debasement. In this context, Bitcoin with its fixed supply and decentralized nature becomes, in Pals view, a rational escape valve for capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Fueled By Almost $19 Billion In Crypto Inflows, Data Shows Notably, Pal referred to Bitcoin as the single best-performing asset in all of financial history, citing a 27.5 million percent return since 2012 and an average annualized return of 130%, despite massive drawdowns. Nothing has ever come close, he said, before comparing its performance to that of Ethereum (113%) and Solana (142%), with the caveat that Solanas data covers a shorter timeframe. While some of his statements may appear hyperbolic, Pal backed them with a detailed macro analysis and time-tested indicators. He invoked his use of Demark indicators a technical analysis tool which flagged significant market turning points in prior cycles, and are now suggesting a breakout continuation for Bitcoin. According to his models, should the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index reach a level of 57, Bitcoin could be fairly priced at $450,000. Is it exact? No. But all the people who are saying its going to $150K or $250K are probably scarred from the last cycle, Pal argued, stressing the importance of forward-looking data. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Faces Stiff Resistance: Is Another Drop on the Horizon? He also dismissed current bearish sentiment as misguided and backward-looking: People are creating narratives for today to explain liquidity conditions from three months ago, he said, criticizing popular economic commentary on platforms like X. To Pal, the market has already priced in recent economic weakness including fears surrounding tariffs, the slowing economy, and geopolitical tensions and is beginning to pivot toward the next liquidity expansion phase. Bitcoins already priced it down to 47.4 on the business cycle indicator, he said, referencing data that had only just come out the day before. But financial conditions lead by nine months, and theyre turning. When Will BTC Peak? Pals broader view is that we are now entering the banana zone, his term for the high-velocity portion of the crypto cycle where prices move sharply upward. Every cycle looks the same. Breakout, retest, banana zone. Weve had banana one, the corrective zone, banana two. Whats next is banana three. He believes the current setup is unusually strong due to a confluence of factors: synchronized global liquidity expansion, a weakening dollar, central banks beginning to ease, and retail plus institutional underexposure to risk assets. As he concluded his speech, Pal reinforced his thesis with urgency but caution: Weve got the central banks debasing currency, giving us a gigantic tailwind. They dont want the system to break. Every time something happens, they inject more liquidity. Theyre giving you free money. And to take that money, you need the volatility. He warned against overtrading, using leverage, or panicking during inevitable corrections. Dont f*** this up, he said, referencing his own past mistakes during the 2017 bull run. Hold on to your tokens. Be careful. Dont get FOMO. Follow the liquidity. Pal expects this cycle to extend potentially into Q1 or Q2 of 2026, especially if political dynamics around a possible Trump re-election push the liquidity cycle even further. Whether Bitcoin ultimately reaches $450,000 remains to be seen, but Pals thesis is clear: the macro tailwinds are aligned, the data supports it, and this may be as he puts it the greatest macro opportunity of all time. At press time, BTC traded at $94,191. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
According to CZ, Bitcoin’s value could potentially reach $500,000 to $1 million within this market cycle. The CEO of Binance expressed his optimism regarding the future price of the leading cryptocurrency during a recent interview. With the ongoing adoption and institutional interest in Bitcoin, CZ believes that such a substantial price increase is not out [...]
In a detailed analysis shared with his 788,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter), renowned analyst Pentoshi has forecasted a more restrained outlook for the current crypto bull run, suggesting that it may not mirror the explosive growth seen in previous cycles. His insights provide a deep dive into the underlying factors that could temper the market’s performance. Why Crypto Investors Have To Expect Diminishing Returns Pentoshi began his analysis by stating, “This cycle should have the largest diminishing returns of any cycle,” attributing this prediction to several key market conditions. Primarily, he noted that the base market capitalization for cryptocurrencies has increased significantly in each successive cycle, setting a higher starting point that makes further exponential growth increasingly challenging. “Each cycle has set a floor about 10x the previous lows in terms of market cap,” Pentoshi explained. He provided a historical context, recounting that when he entered the crypto market in 2017, the market cap for altcoins was only around $12-15 billion, a figure that ballooned to over $1 trillion during peak periods. He argued, “That growth isn’t repeatable,” pointing out that the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, which was then nascent, played a significant role in driving previous cycles’ exceptional returns. Related Reading: Buy Crypto In May, Go Away: Arthur Hayes Shares His Top Altcoin Picks Another significant factor Pentoshi highlighted is the dramatic increase in the number of altcoins and the corresponding market dilution. “Today, however, there are a lot more alts, and a lot more dilution,” he remarked, indicating that the proliferation of new tokens spreads investment thinner across the market, reducing the potential for individual tokens to achieve substantial price increases. Pentoshi also touched upon the demographic shifts in crypto ownership. He contrasted the early days of crypto adoption, when approximately 2% of Americans were involved in the market, to the present, where over 25% of Americans have some form of crypto investment. “It just requires more capital to move the markets, and there will continue to be a lot more alts, spreading it out further,” he noted, emphasizing the logistical and financial challenges of replicating past growth rates in a much more saturated market. An often-overlooked aspect of market dynamics, according to Pentoshi, is the role of token liquidity and its impact on price stability. He detailed that recently, tokens amounting to about $250 million were unlocked daily, though not necessarily sold. “Assuming they all got sold, that is the inflows you’d need just to keep prices stable for 24 hours,” he explained, highlighting the delicate balance required to maintain current market levels, let alone drive prices upward. Related Reading: Crypto Prediction Website Reveals When The Cardano Price Will Reach $45 Looking forward, Pentoshi was conservative in his expectations for the Total3 index, which tracks the top 125 altcoins (excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum). He estimated, “My best guess is that this cycle we don’t see Total 3 go 2x past the 21′ cycle ATH. So 2.2T max for Total3.” This projection underscores his broader thesis that while the market continues to offer daily opportunities, the era of “easy, outsized gains” might be behind us. Pentoshi concluded his analysis with advice for investors, suggesting a more cautious approach to market participation. “If you believe the cycle is 50% over, you should be taking out more than you are putting in and building up some cash and buying other assets with lower risk in the meantime,” he advised, stressing the importance of securing gains and diversifying holdings to mitigate risk. Reflecting on the psychological aspects of investing, he added, “Most people never really learn. Because if you can’t control your greed, and defeat it, you are destined to give back your gains repeatedly.” His parting words were a reminder of the cyclical and often predatory nature of financial markets, urging investors to secure profits and protect themselves from foreseeable downturns. At press time, TOTAL3 stood at $635.565 billion, which is still more than -43 % below the last cycle high. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com
Solana is trading at a critical level as the broader crypto market consolidates below key resistance zones. After an impressive 90% surge since early April, SOL has experienced a modest pullback, sparking speculation that this may be the final dip before a significant move higher. While many assets are struggling to maintain momentum, Solana has shown remarkable strength and resilience, bolstering bullish expectations. Related Reading: Dogecoin Momentum Fades Analyst Expects $0.213 Retest Top analyst Cas Abbe shared a technical view suggesting that the long-term bullish structure for Solana remains firmly intact. According to Abbe, last months retest of the multi-year trendline marked a pivotal moment for the asset, reinforcing support and resetting sentiment for a potential continuation. Since the bounce from that level, SOL has continued to climb steadily, and many now believe that Solana is gearing up for another leg up. With fundamentals improving and historical patterns pointing to renewed upside, the market is watching closely. A successful reclaim of nearby resistance levels could be the trigger that drives Solana back toward its previous all-time highand potentially beyond. For now, SOL holders are eyeing this consolidation phase as the calm before the storm. Solana Holds Critical Support As Market Eyes Bullish Continuation Solana is testing a crucial demand zone around the $165 level, attempting to establish a foundation for its next major move. This range has become a key battleground between bulls and bears, especially as broader market sentiment is shaped by Bitcoins struggle to push past its all-time high. With BTC stalling just below $109K, uncertainty clouds the outlook for many altcoins, including SOL. However, Solana continues to show signs of relative strength. Despite recent pullbacks, the overall trend for Solana remains bullish. According to Abbe, the assets multi-year uptrend remains intact. Last month, Solana successfully retested its long-term trendline, which Abbe believes marked the bottom of the recent correction. Since that bounce, SOL has surged over 50%, demonstrating strong investor confidence and solid underlying momentum. Abbe maintains that the $290 high seen earlier was not the final peak for Solana, projecting a new all-time high sometime in 2025. His bullish thesis is supported by improving fundamentals across the Solana ecosystem, including rising developer activity, growing DeFi participation, and increasing on-chain usage. Related Reading: Range-Bound Ethereum Sees Volatility High Timeframe Levels Hold The Key SOL Price Analysis: Holding The Line Before A Big Move Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $167.76 after a sharp rally in early May that pushed the price above both the 200-day EMA and 200-day SMA. The chart shows SOL climbing over 90% since its April low, confirming bullish momentum and renewed interest across the market. However, the price is now stalling just below the 200-day SMA at $181.03, which is acting as dynamic resistance. The key support lies near the 200-day EMA at $162.55. As long as SOL holds this level, the short-term structure remains bullish. A clean break above the $181 level would open the door for a move toward the psychological $200 mark and potentially higher. But if bears regain control and price breaks below $160, the uptrend could be in jeopardy. Related Reading: Chainlink Struggles At Key Resistance Level $10 Support Back In Focus Volume has decreased slightly since the early May breakout, hinting at possible exhaustion or consolidation before another leg. Traders are closely watching for confirmation either a breakout above $181 or a breakdown below the EMA. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
This crypto cycle achieved some remarkable feats during Q1 2024, including the highest monthly and quarterly close in Bitcoin (BTC) history. However, BTC suffered a retrace that dragged Ethereum (ETH) and the rest of the crypto market down as the year’s second quarter started. Now that we are one month into Q2, the market faces another correction. The most recent retrace became the deepest of the cycle, with Bitcoin nosediving into the $57,000 support zone and Ethereum falling below $3,000. Despite the markets stumble, analysts remain optimistic for whats to come. Related Reading: Is This Cycles Bitcoin Bottom In? Analysts Forecast BTC Bounce Back What Makes This Cycle Different? Traders and analysts have urged investors not to panic about the retraces yet. A broader look shows that the market is above levels not seen since the last bull run. As many have discussed, theres a significant resemblance between this cycles performance and previous ones. However, analysts have also pointed out the singularities of this bull run. Compared to the 2020 cycle, altcoins didnt even run that hard over the last few months, as renowned analyst Altcoin Sherpa highlighted. After Wednesdays correction, trader and economist Alex Krüger weighed in on this cycles performance. Krüger concurs with some of Sherpas points, considering that the markets too many options have made the playfield more convoluted. Some thoughts on the current crypto cycle #1 The crypto cycle has been almost entirely driven by the bitcoin ETF. #2 ETH has been a major disappointment, but it has performed well overall for stakers and airdrop farmers. #3 Solana established itself as the chain of choice for — Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) May 1, 2024 Similarly, he also has noticed the desire to focus on making a quick buck and investing in short-term hype rather than on longevity. The trader highlighted that the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have almost entirely driven this cycle. Besides BTC, memecoins have been the dominating narrative of the bull run, ranking among the top gainers of Q1 2024. Moreover, Krüger asserted that most market participants who missed the Bitcoin ETF run went all in on altcoins to compensate. As a result: They deployed late and poorly, going in larger at higher levels, and are now seething and at a loss, as too many altcoins have given up their entire 2024 gains in the last month. Ethereum Disappointing Run One of the crucial points of Krügers analysis is Ethereums overall unsatisfactory performance. To the crypto veteran, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been a major disappointment even though it has performed well for stakers and farmers. Despite seeing massive gains alongside Bitcoins run, Ethereum has not been able to challenge its all-time high (ATH) price set over two years ago. Furthermore, Solana overtook Ethereum after establishing itself as the chain of choice for retail traders. Its worth noting that the turmoil surrounding Ether and the Ethereum Network has seemingly affected the tokens recent performance. The king of altcoins is currently facing severe regulatory scrutiny. The suspicion of a spot Ether ETF rejection from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), alongside the news of the agencys investigation on the assets classification as an unregistered security, seems to have created uncertainty around ETH. Ethereum’s current landscape has reignited deeming conversations against its founders and the asset, possibly fueling the doubtful sentiment surrounding a sector of the crypto community. Despite the challenging landscape, many analysts consider that investors should not be bearish on Ethereum. After falling 4.5% and 14.39% in the weekly and monthly timeframes, ETH has recovered 3.3% of its price in the past 24 hours. Ultimately, Krügers consideration concludes that the cycle is not over. However, he points out that investors need to move out of the panic area and reignite the majors before finding a new narrative for this run. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Revisits Key Support, Can Bears Take Over? Ether is trading at $2,999.80 in the three-day chart. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
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