Bitcoin Price Prints Rare Buy Signal With 84% Win Rate, $80,000 Coming?

After rising by more than 28% over the 16 days, the Bitcoin price was rejected at key resistance at $68,500 on Sunday. Since then, the BTC price is displaying a slight pullback, but according to Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, investors can expect the bullish momentum to continue. Edwards shared the chart below and stated via X, “BREAKING: Hash Ribbon buy signal just fired.” Why The Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Matter This statement is significant, as the hash ribbons have historically been a reliable indicator, with an 84% accuracy rate in predicting Bitcoin’s major price bottoms. The hash ribbons are predicated on the interplay between the Bitcoin hash ratethe total computational power used to mine and process transactionsand Bitcoin’s market price. Related Reading: Is Bitcoins Recent ETF Inflow Surge a Setup for a Fall? What Traders Need to Know Analysts observe that a drop in Bitcoin’s price or an increase in operational costs, such as electricity, may cause miners to halt operations temporarily. This period, known as ‘miner capitulation,’ is crucial because a resumption in mining activity is typically viewed as a bullish signal for Bitcoin’s price. The indicator itself is derived from the moving averages of the Bitcoin hash rate; specifically, the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. A ‘Buy’ signal occurs when the shorter-term moving average crosses above the longer-term average after a period of miner capitulation, indicating that the worst of the sell-off may be over and a recovery phase is likely imminent. Crypto analyst Jelle, known on X as @CryptoJelleNL, commented, “Hash ribbons are showing that minor capitulation is over! This signal prints after every halving event, and after major corrections — and suggests the next leg of expansion is just around the corner. Time for 80k+?” Related Reading: Mt. Gox Creditors Begin Withdrawing Owed Bitcoin And BCH Funds Via Kraken Further supporting the bullish sentiment, the account @DaFinancialPage noted on X, “Miner Capitulation. The Hash Ribbons indicator’s blue buy signal has appeared 19 times. Of those, 16 marked Bitcoin’s macro low, giving it an 84% win rate. The 3 times it didn’t, a major correction followed.” Thus, the appearance of the hash ribbon ‘Buy’ signal can be interpreted as a strong indicator for the next bullish phase in Bitcoin’s market cycle. However, the three instances when the signal failed to predict a significant rise highlight the inherent risks and uncertainties with every indicator. Notably, technical analysis aligns closely with the anticipated target of $80,000 discussed by Jelle. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension is sitting at approximately $79,337. However, before a new all-time high can be explored, Bitcoin must secure support at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at $65,943 in the daily chart, which could act as a critical juncture. Subsequent levels at the 0.786 Fibonacci at $69,384 and the 1.0 Fibonacci at $73,767 serve as potential interim targets. At press time, BTC traded at $66,403. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

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Best Long-Term Bitcoin Buy Signal Flashes, Hedge Fund CEO Warns

In his latest dispatch, Charles Edwards, CEO of the Bitcoin and digital asset hedge fund Capriole, has flagged a significant market indicator in the latest edition of the firm’s newsletter, Update #51. Edwards points to the activation of the “Hash Ribbons” buy signal, a notable event that has historically indicated prime buying opportunities for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal The Hash Ribbons indicator, first introduced in 2019, utilizes mining data to predict long-term buying opportunities based on miners’ economic pressures. The signal arises from the convergence of short-term and long-term moving averages of Bitcoins hash rate, specifically when the 30-day moving average falls below the 60-day. According to Edwards, this event has “in the vast majority of cases synced with broader Bitcoin market weakness, price volatility and significantly long-term value opportunities.” The current Miner Capitulation, as highlighted by Edwards, began two weeks ago and coincides with post-halving adjustments in the mining sector. This period often leads to the shuttering of operations and even bankruptcies among less efficient miners. Edwards notes, “Just as we are seeing today, these mining rigs will typically then be phased out over several weeks following the Halving resulting in falling hash rates.” Despite the historical profitability of miners, especially with increased block fees from new applications such as Ordinals and Runes, Edwards suggests that the market should not overlook the current opportunity signaled by the latest Miner Capitulation. “While this capitulation is occurring when miners have broadly been profitable, we would be remiss not to note this rare opportunity,” stated Edwards. Related Reading: The Half-Million Dollar Bitcoin: Predictions Point To Monumental Price Surge In 18 Months The Hash Ribbons have not been without their critics, with each occurrence stirring debate about the current relevance and accuracy of the signal. Edwards addressed these criticisms by referencing the previous years signal, which correlated with Bitcoin trading in the $20,000 range, reinforcing the indicator’s predictive strength. “Every occurrence brings some debate about their relevance today, or why the current signal perhaps doesnt count,” Edwards explained. Edwards recommends that the safest approach to leveraging the Hash Ribbons is by waiting for confirmation through renewed hash rate growth and a positive price trend. He concludes, “The safest (lowest volatility opportunity) to allocate to the Hash Ribbons strategy is on confirmation of the Hash Ribbon Buy which is triggered by renewed Hash Rate growth (30DMA>60DMA) and a positive price trend (as defined by the 10DMA>20DMA of price).” Broader Market Context Transitioning from the technical to the contextual, Edwards discusses the changing regulatory landscape that has recently become more favorable to cryptocurrencies. The SECs approval of an Ethereum ETF, categorizing ETH as a commodity, marks a significant shift in the regulatory approach towards cryptocurrencies and reflects growing institutional acceptance. Related Reading: Is This The Biggest Bitcoin Bull Run Ever? Analyst Says Yes! “The reclassification of Ethereum and the approval of its ETF represent a pivotal shift in governmental stance on cryptocurrencies,” Edwards notes. “This could lead to increased institutional involvement and potentially more stability in the crypto markets.” Furthermore, Edwards points to macroeconomic factors that could influence Bitcoin’s value. The expansion of the M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates are designed to stimulate economic activity. However, Edwards warns of the potential long-term consequences of these policies, such as inflation, which could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against monetary devaluation. “Bitcoin was conceptualized as an alternative to traditional financial systems in times of economic stress,” Edwards remarks. “The current economic policies reinforce the fundamental reasons for Bitcoin’s existence and could lead to increased adoption.” On the technical front, Edwards provides an analysis of Bitcoins price movements, highlighting the recent breakout and consolidation above critical resistance levels. He sets a conditional mid-term price target of $100,000, contingent upon the market sustaining its current momentum and the monthly close remaining above a critical threshold of $58,000. At press time, BTC traded at $69,008. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

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One Of Bitcoins Most Reliable Buy Signals Just Flashed

The Hash Ribbon indicatoran on-chain metric designed to identify periods of miner capitulation and subsequent recoveryhas just issued a bullish signal for Bitcoin. Several well-known figures within the BTC community highlighted the event through posts on X , suggesting that the signal could mark a turning point in the market. The Ultimate Bitcoin Buy Signal? First introduced by on-chain analyst Charles Edwards, the Hash Ribbon relies on two moving averages (commonly the 30-day and 60-day averages of Bitcoins hash rate) to determine when mining difficulty and hash power may have capitulated and begun to recover. Traditionally, a buy signal is triggered once the 30-day MA crosses decisively above the 60-day MA, indicating that any period of miner-driven distress may be over. According to historical data, major buy signals have frequently appeared after sharp market downturns, sometimes coinciding with cycle bottoms. Although the indicator is not infallible, it has correctly identified several previous lows in Bitcoins historymost notably in 20112012, during the depths of the 20142015 bear market, around the $3k bottom of late 2018early 2019, and near the $29k region in mid-2021. Related Reading: Now Is The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin, Says Investment Giant Shortly after the latest crossover was triggered, popular commentator Bitcoin Archive posted: BITCOIN HASH-RIBBON FLASHES BUY SIGNAL This is one of the most reliable buy indicators. Significant price gains have followed 7 out of the last 7 times this indicator was triggered. Edwards, the creator of the Hash Ribbon, retweeted this post, a move that many interpreted as an endorsement of the analysis. Adding to the discussion, a user noted: Signal flashed only 20 times in Bitcoins history. 17/20 times the most recent local low was never violated on a closing basis. We can sweep the lows, or even wick below, but 85% of the time the lows in and its up only from here. Meanwhile, Jamie Coutts, chief analyst at Real Vision, stressed the importance of monitoring multiple on-chain metrics, even as the Hash Ribbon flashes bullish: The widely watched Bitcoin Hash Ribbon signal just fired. While on-chain activity remains sluggish, the metrics with the strongest historical correlation to future price performance are flashing green. Notably, many on-chain signals havent reached the levels of previous cycles even when the Bitcoin price hit almost $110,000 in mid-January. Also traditional technical signals havent reached peaks of the past. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Make Big Moves As Bullish Momentum Resurfaces Tony Severino, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and Head of Research at NewsBTC, has recently shifted from a bullish to a bearish stance on Bitcoin. Severino, who is also the founder of CoinChartist.io, argues that Bitcoins price action and on-chain metrics no longer support the bullish narratives common in past cycles. The idea that Bitcoin HAS to reach past extremes on indicators is a dangerous way of thinking. Higher highs in price and lower highs on an oscillator is a bearish signal, Severino stated recently. Severino warns against expecting Bitcoin to replicate its historical pattern of pushing certain momentum indicators (e.g., RSI or MACD) to extreme levels. Instead, he notes that divergenceswhere price climbs to new highs but technical indicators fail to confirm those highscan signal market exhaustion. The tools I use are bearish, period, he remarked via X. At press time, BTC traded at $87,373. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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Market Alert: Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Triggers Cautionary Outlook

Charles Edwards, the mastermind behind the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons signal and founder of Capriole Investments, has sounded the alarm. The renowned analyst warns that the Hash Ribbons capitulation signal just flashed, a phenomenon that has historically accompanied moments of distress for BTC miners. As outlined by Edwards, Bitcoin’s hash rate had experienced an astonishing and [...]

The post Market Alert: Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Capitulation Triggers Cautionary Outlook appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

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WATCH: Daily Crypto Technical Analysis August 22, 2022: Bitcoin Price (BTCUSD)

Welcome to the first episode of NewsBTC’s all-new daily technical analysis videos. In the first episode, we are looking at Bitcoin price action using the weekly BTCUSD price chart. Specifically, this episode looks at Bitcoin’s “most profitable buy signal” in its entire history: the hash ribbons. In addition, we analyze weekly momentum using the logarithmic MACD to try to understand if a bottom could be in. Take a look at the video below. VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): August 22, 2022   All About The Hash Ribbons The Hash Ribbons were created by Bitcoin analyst Charles Edwards. They are a pair of moving averages based on the Bitcoin hash rate and mining difficulty, and signal when miners are capitulating. When this phase ends, a buy signal is issued. In fact, its buy signal has been called Bitcoin’s most profitable buy signal, producing several thousand percent ROI on average each time it triggers. The signal is even more profitable when it appears prior to a Bitcoin halving The hash ribbons have triggered a buy signal | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com With the hash ribbons buy signal on the daily, weekly timeframes become more interesting in anticipation of a possible bottom. Although a bottom could be in already, the market has historically continued to draw down even after the hash ribbons buy signal. Related Reading: The Most Profitable Buy Signal In Bitcoin Just Triggered Measuring Momentum With LMACD Yesterday gave us a fresh weekly close in BTCUSD. In particular, we will be using the Logarithmic MACD in our analysis. The log version of the MACD provides better comparative analysis across past cycles. Although the MACD had opened green the week prior, the late-week selloff uncrossed the bullish crossover and has forced momentum sideways. The weekly MACD is at historical bear market readings. Diverging down further would be unprecedented and likely take Bitcoin down below $17K. Will momentum cross upward? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com However, if bulls can complete the bull cross, in previous cycles the change in momentum was enough to kickstart a bullish impulse. The MACD is currently one of the most important indicators to watch on weekly timeframes. Although a bullish crossover could confirm the bottom, the MACD gets a reputation for being a lagging indicator and therefore the bottom could be in long before the bull crossover confirms. Related Reading: Has Bitcoin Price Found Support At A Decade-Long Trend Line? The Ten Year Trend Line Adding credence to a potential bottom, Bitcoin weekly is sitting at a long-term trend line lasting over a decade long. The long term trend line has been touched on 5 separate occasions including the 2014 bear market bottom and Black Thursday in March 2020. Losing this trend line could be disastrous for the cryptocurrency market. Will this nearly ten year long trend line hold? | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Learn crypto technical analysis yourself with the NewsBTC Trading Course. Click here to access the free educational program. Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Mining Hash Ribbons As A Market Indicator

Analyzing the changes in average hash rate to measure miner capitulation in the bitcoin market can be a market indicator for miner capitulation.

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Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Indicator: Miners Show Unwavering Optimism as Hash Rate Hits New Highs

Bitcoin's hash rate is surging to new all-time highs, signaling strong miner confidence in the network's future. Discover how the Hash Ribbons Indicator helps decode miner sentiment and why this bullish crossover could hint at upcoming price momentum.

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Bitcoin’s tight trading range mirrored by flat hash ribbons signals impending market movement

The Bitcoin mining industry serves as a critical barometer for market health and direction. Among the various tools employed to analyze this vital sector, hash ribbons stand out for their nuanced insights into the state of Bitcoin miners. Hash Ribbons are a technical indicator that compares two moving averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate: the 30-day […]

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