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Trumps election odds on prediction markets and several other Trump-themed memecoins soared following an assassination attempt on the former president while he was speaking on stage at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Following President Donald Trumps Liberation Day tariff announcement on April 2, recession probabilities have spiked across leading economic trackers, putting Bitcoin on high alert. Kalshis prediction markets now stand at 53%, an 8.1% jump from prior estimates, and Polymarkets odds have surged to 54%. Tariff Shock And Rising Recession Odds After President Trumps latest move to impose higher dutiesLiberation Day tariffs targeting key US trading partners, including a 34% levy on imports from China and 20% on those from the European Unionmultiple forecasters revised their recession probabilities upward. The odds have been updated across several respected institutions and platforms: Besides Kalshi and Polymarket, Larry Summers has indicated a 50% likelihood, whereas JPMorgan puts the chance at 40%. According to a CNBC Fed Survey, the odds are 36%, with both Moodys Analytics and Pimco forecasting a 35% chance. Notably, Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its stance, now estimating the probability at 35%, up from a previous 20%. Related Reading: Corporate Bitcoin Buying Hits Record Levels, Yet Prices Are DownHeres Why JPMorgan warns that these tariffs could result in a $660 billion annual tax increase on Americans, potentially adding 2% to domestic inflation. The risk of a knock-on effect is underscored by shifting consumer confidence data and the looming prospect of retaliatory trade measures from partners such as Canada and the EU. Goldman Sachs, in its March 30 research note, offered a sobering outlook for 2025. According to the team: We now see a 12-month recession probability of 35%. The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies. What This Means For Bitcoin Renowned crypto trader Bob Loukas captured market sentiment on X, writing: Im starting to think were heading into a recession or bear market, maybe a milder one, but its looking likely. […] We should take it seriously. That said, I think its time to move away from the buy the dip habit weve leaned on during the bull market. […] It might not end up being a disaster, but focusing too much on potential gains could mean overlooking real risks. […] Bonds seem like a good bet, capital has to flow somewhere. With respect to Bitcoin, Loukas underlines the difficult situation for investor with respect to Trumps pro-BTC policy: Bitcoins tricky, instinct says it struggles, but I can see it holding up as a kind of digital gold, especially since the administration seems to want it to succeed, outside of trade policy stuff. Maybe there is some bias in that last statement. Aksel Kibar (@TechCharts), a Chartered Market Technician and ex-fund manager, briefly affirmed Loukass stance by commenting, Agreed. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Watch This Key Price Meanwhile, LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) spotlighted new guidance from UBS global wealth management, which now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75100 bps through the remainder of 2025. The analyst writes via X: This is kind of the key for Bitcoin. If the Fed treats tariff induced inflation as transitory [… ] and focuses on supporting growth, then real rates are coming way lower […] and Bitcoin will fly. Financial conditions are currently easing with lower dollar and yields (although keep an eye on credit spreads). […] Bitcoin front runs liquidity […] Ultimately, this all ends with the Fed being forced to be the liquidity providers of last resort […] Bitcoin will end this year significantly higher. Just the path is going to be a very volatile and choppy one. Macro analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) cautioned about the interplay between monetary easing and recession risk: Fed cuts without recession are usually bullish. Fed cuts with recession are usually bearish. This was a major talking point in 2024. Powells Speech: A Pivotal Moment In light of President Trumps unexpected tariffs, Fridays scheduled remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have taken on renewed urgency. Powell had previously indicated that monetary policy remains restrictive, given inflations persistence above the Feds 2% target. Yet tariffs introduce a potential double bind: higher costs for consumers that could drive inflation further, alongside a drag on economic growth that complicates the labor market outlook. Andy Brenner of NatAlliance Securities described the speech as possibly One of the most important Powell speeches in three years. The Fed Chair is due to speak at 11:25 am ET. At press time, BTC traded at $83,197. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin mining community was astounded recently when a solo miner managed to successfully win a block using a small and inexpensive Bitcoin miner. This remarkable feat has sparked a discussion within the mining community about the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency mining. Traditionally, Bitcoin mining has been dominated by large mining operations that invest in [...]
The post Small But Mighty: Bitcoin Miner Beats the Odds to Claim Block with Affordable Setup appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
While Musk has a bigger frame and height advantage at 6’1, Zuckerberg has now been training in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu for nine months.
As one of the most loved sports in the world, hockey offers a lot of betting opportunities. Fans of NHL hockey love its physicality and fast pace, which makes it one of the most exciting sports to watch. With a few well-researched and legal wagers, things only get better. How Does NHL Betting Work? You […]
Most of the market has been rather responsive to Bitcoin’s price action lately. But, even though a lot of altcoins have carved their own niche, the larger market is still waiting for Bitcoin’s cue. Solana, Cardano, and Terra (LUNA) set up independent rallies and made new ATHs while other top alts journeyed on the back […]
Cointelegraphs latest video breaks down the odds of the US creating a Bitcoin reserve in the next year and its potential impact on prices.
Polymarket dominates with around $3.3 billion in betting volumes tied to the outcome of the US presidential race.
The US-based prediction market is vying to catch up with industry leader Polymarket.
Competition is heating up among election betting platforms, with crypto-native Polymarket still strongly in the lead.
The prediction marketplace has certified more than a dozen political event contracts since prevailing in a court battle in September.
Blockchain betting is a new form of online sports betting which uses blockchain technology as the basis for its infrastructure. Blockchain betting offers increased transparency, improved security, and improved fairness when compared to traditional online sports betting. This is because the underlying blockchain technology allows for a more secure form of betting which eliminates the […]
According to James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, two analysts specializing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at Bloomberg, the likelihood of a spot bitcoin ETF debut in the U.S. has surged to 65%. These analysts attribute this increase to “pressure from Blackrock and possibly Democrats,” a force that could compel the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to [...]
The post ETF Analysts: Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds at 65% Amid Pressure From Blackrock appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
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