Bitcoin Holders Now Doing Loss-Taking: Sign That A Turnaround Is Near?

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin investors have ended their net profit-taking spree recently, a potential sign that a price reversal could occur soon. Bitcoin Daily Realized Profit Loss Ratio Has Dipped Below 1 Recently As explained by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new post on X, realized losses have started to exceed profits [...]

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Bitcoin Makes Sharp Recovery, But Watch Out For Resistance At $64,000

On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin short-term holder whales have a cost base above $64,000, which could be a potential resistance point for BTC. Bitcoin Is Not Far From Realized Price Of Short-Term Holder Whales After Rally As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the BTC price had slipped below the Realized Price of the short-term holder whales earlier. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the average cost basis that the investors of a particular group currently share. Related Reading: Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Gives Bottom Signal: What Happened Last 2 Times When the asset’s spot price is under this metric, the holders belonging to the cohort are in a state of net unrealized loss. Similarly, it being above the indicator implies the group is enjoying profits. In the context of the current topic, there are two market segments of interest: the short-term holder and long-term holder whales. The short-term and long-term holders are the two main divisions of the Bitcoin sector based on holding time. The short-term holders (STHs) are the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, while the long-term holders (LTHs) include the hands who have kept their coins dormant for longer than this period. The “whales” generally refer to the entities that carry at least 1,000 BTC in their wallets, so the STH and LTH whales would naturally correspond to the large members of the respective cohorts. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for these two Bitcoin groups over the past few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price had slipped considerably below the Realized Price of the STH whales during the recent market downturn. However, with the price observing recovery, it has now neared back to that level. The average cost basis of the STH whales is between $64,000 and $65,000, so a retest of it could be coming soon. However, Such a retest could prove difficult for the cryptocurrency. The STHs represent the weak hands of the market, which can be sensitive to changes in the market. The cost basis is naturally an important level for any investor, but this cohort especially can be likely to react when such a retest happens. Since most STH whales have been at a loss recently, some may be desperately looking forward to a retest taking place so they can exit from the market at their break-even level. It remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will overcome this obstacle if the current recovery rally continues that far. Related Reading: XRP Sharks & Whales Push Bags To ATH As Price Rockets 19% While the STH whales suffer losses, the LTH whales continue to be in high profits as their Realized Price is at just $22,000, implying that their patience has paid off. BTC Price Bitcoin had briefly broken above $62,000 during the past day, but the coin’s price has since seen a retrace to $60,500. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Makes Third Retest Of Historical Support, Analyst Sounds Alarm

An analyst has warned that support levels weaken the more they are retested and Bitcoin is now doing a third consecutive retest of a major such level. Bitcoin Is Again Retesting The Short-Term Holder Realized Price As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC’s latest drawdown has led to it doing another retest of the short-term holder Realized Price. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of the investors or addresses on the Bitcoin network. When the value of this metric is greater than the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the average investor in the market could be assumed to be holding a net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the indicator being below the asset’s value suggests the dominance of losses on the blockchain. Related Reading: Ethereum Seeing High Exchange Outflows, But Watch Out For This Bearish Signal In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of the entire userbase isn’t of interest, but that of a specific segment of it: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for the STHs over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price had slipped under the STH Realized Price in June, but it finally managed to break above the line halfway through last month. In the weeks since the asset has seen a couple of pullbacks back to the line, but it has managed to find rebounds each time. Now, after the latest decline, the coin’s price is once again retesting the level. Historically, the STH Realized Price has been a reliable point of support for the cryptocurrency during bullish periods. The explanation behind this pattern may lie in how investor psychology works. The STHs represent the fickle-minded side of the sector, who are sensitive to change. As such, whenever the price retests their cost basis, they may be prone to making panic moves. In times when the atmosphere in the market is bullish, the STHs may believe such a retest to merely be a dip opportunity, so they could decide to accumulate more. This could be why Bitcoin has found rebounds at the level in the past. While the level has generally been reliable indeed, this latest retest that BTC is facing is already the third within a narrow period. “Each time a level is tested, it becomes weaker,” notes Maartunn. Related Reading: XRP Bullish Signal: Shark & Whale Population Sharply Growing It now remains to be seen if the Bitcoin STHs still carry a bullish outlook on the cryptocurrency or if the constant pullbacks have put fear on their minds. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued its recent bearish momentum in the past 24 hours as its price has slid another 2% to reach the $64,700 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Bull Cycle Likely To Go On Till Mid-2025: CryptoQuant CEO

The CEO and founder of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how this Bitcoin bull cycle could probably last till mid-2025. Profit-Taking From Old Bitcoin Whales Lasted For 18 Months In Previous Cycles In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about a pattern that old whales have followed in terms of profit-taking during the past cycles. “Old whales take profits during bull markets,” notes Young Ju. “Their selling brings new capital into accumulation addresses, raising realized prices.” Accumulation Addresses refer to the Bitcoin wallets that have no history of selling. These addresses also have a few other conditions, such as they must have at least two deposits and shouldn’t be connected to miners or centralized exchanges. They should also carry a balance of at least 10 BTC, and their last transaction should have been within the past seven years. Related Reading: Shiba Inu, XRP Forming Bullish Divergence, Analytics Firm Reveals The Accumulation Addresses basically reflect the perennial HODLers of the market, who only buy more and never sell. During bull markets, as old whales break their silence to harvest their profits, demand from these HODLers absorbs the selling. To display this trend, the CryptoQuant CEO has made use of the “Realized Price” metric, which keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor belonging to this cohort. When the value of this indicator is above the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the cohort as a whole is in a state of unrealized loss right now. On the other hand, it being under BTC’s value implies these diamond hands are currently carrying profits. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for the Bitcoin Accumulation Addresses over the past decade: As shown in the above graph, the Realized Price for this cohort observed a rise during the last two Bitcoin bull runs. This would suggest that these HODLers were buying as prices were going up, thus raising their average cost basis. This accumulation likely corresponded to profit-taking from other entities in the market. As Young Ju has pointed out, this profit-taking spree lasted for about 18 months in these past cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes To $64,000: Will This Historical Support Hold? From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has once again started showing an uptrend with the price rally this year. This would suggest that the Accumulation Addresses are back to absorbing profit-taking from old whales. So far, this rise has lasted for around four months, which means that there could still be around another fourteen months of it left, if the last two cycles are anything to go by. Based on this, the analyst thinks this latest Bitcoin bull cycle could end up running into mid-2025. BTC Price Bitcoin has edged close to the $70,000 level during the past day after observing a surge of around 3%. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Large holders cashed out ahead of Ethereum ETF launch

The market has been gearing up for volatility before the launch of spot ETH ETFs in the US today. While ETH’s price action has been relatively uninteresting in the past few weeks, it seems that large holders are expecting price swings and are rushing to cash out. Glassnode’s data on realized profit for Ethereum holders […]

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Bitcoin Forming A Signal Thats Usually Very Bullish, Analyst Says

An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin is back above the cost basis of the short-term holders, a sign that can be bullish for the asset. Bitcoin Is Back Above The Realized Price Of Short-Term Holders As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC has reclaimed the Realized Price [...]

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Is Bitcoin Overheated Right Now? This Metric Suggests No

Data of an on-chain indicator could suggest Bitcoin is currently not at a stage where its price would be at a significant risk of facing correction. Bitcoin 365-Day MA Growth Rate Is Sitting Below Historical Overheated Zone In a post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the recent trend in the “Growth Rate” metric for Bitcoin. The Growth Rate basically keeps track of the difference between the changes happening in the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap. The Market Cap here is naturally just the simple valuation of the cryptocurrency’s total circulating supply at the current spot price. The Realized Cap, on the other hand, is a bit more complex. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Under $67,000: Can BTC Rely On This Historical Support Again? The Realized Cap is an on-chain capitalization model for the asset that takes the “real” value of any coin in circulation to be the same as the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain. As the last transaction of any coin was likely the last instance of it changing hands, the price at its time would act as its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums up this price for all tokens of the asset, it essentially calculates the sum of the cost basis of each coin in the circulating supply. In other words, the Realized Cap measures the total amount of capital that the investors have used to buy their Bitcoin. The changes in the Realized Cap would, therefore, represent the capital inflows or outflows happening for the cryptocurrency. As the Growth Rate keeps track of how changes in the Realized Cap are reflecting in the Market Cap, it basically tells us about how reactive the market is being to capital flows. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Growth Rate over the last decade or so: As is visible in the above graph, the 365-day MA Bitcoin Growth Rate has been at positive levels since early 2023. When the indicator has green values, it means that the Market Cap is growing at a rate faster than the Realized Cap. At present, the indicator is sitting at the 0.001 mark, which is a relatively high level. Thus, it would appear that capital inflows have been rapidly driving up the price recently. Historically, during periods of euphoria in the market, where Market Cap has exploded relative to the Realized Cap, tops have become more probable to take place. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery From the chart, it’s apparent, though, that the recent levels of the metric, although high, have still been below the 0.002 mark beyond which corrections have become likely in the past. The Bitcoin all-time high (ATH) back in March, which has continued to be the top for the rally thus far, had also occurred when the Growth Rate had surged above this level. BTC Price Bitcoin had slipped under the $67,000 mark yesterday, but the asset has since seen a recovery push that has now taken its price back above $69,300. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Slips Under $67,000: Can BTC Rely On This Historical Support Again?

Bitcoin has observed a plunge during the past day, taking the asset’s price under $67,000. Here’s the historical support level that the asset could visit next. Bitcoin Is Now Not Far From The Short-Term Holder Realized Price As analyst James Van Straten pointed out in a post on X, the Realized Price of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders has been going up recently and currently sits around the $64,000 level. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor in the BTC market. This indicator is based on the “Realized Cap” model for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery When the asset’s spot price is greater than the Realized Price, it means the investors are carrying some net unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, the coin’s value under the metric suggests the dominance of losses in the market. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific sector segment is of interest: the Short-Term Holders (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the Bitcoin STHs over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price rapidly climbed during the rally towards the all-time high price (ATH) earlier in the year. This trend naturally makes sense, as the STHs represent the new investors in the market, who would have had to buy at higher prices as the asset climbed up, thus pushing the cohort’s average up. Since BTC’s consolidation phase following the March ATH, the indicator’s uptrend has slowed, but its value is increasing nonetheless. After the latest increase, the metric has approached $64,000. Now, what significance does the Realized Price of the STHs have? Historically, this indicator has taken turns acting as a major support and resistance line for the cryptocurrency. During bullish periods, this metric can facilitate bottom formations for the cryptocurrency, thus keeping it above itself, while bearish trends generally witness the line acting as a barrier preventing the coin from escaping above it. Transitions beyond this level have generally reflected a flip trend for the coin. This apparent pattern has held up likely because the STHs, being the relatively inexperienced hands, can be quite reactive. The cost basis is an important level for any investor, but this cohort, in particular, can be more likely to panic when a retest of their cost basis takes place. When the sentiment in the market is bullish, the STHs could decide to buy more when the price drops to their average cost basis, believing the drawdown to be merely a “dip” opportunity. In bearish phases, though, they may react to such a retest by panic selling instead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Next Top At $89,200, Crypto Analyst Suggests The chart shows that Bitcoin found support around this line during the crash at the end of April/start of May, potentially implying a bullish sentiment has continued to be dominant. With BTC seeing a drop below $67,000 in the past day and the STH Realized Price closing in at $64,000, it will be interesting to see how a potential retest would play out this time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,800, down over 3% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Realized Volatility Showing Very Rare Trend: What Could Be Next

Data shows that the Bitcoin Realized Volatility metric has fallen to historically low levels. What generally happens after this pattern forms? Bitcoin Realized Volatility Has Decline To Extreme Lows Recently In a post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the latest trend taking place in the Realized Volatility of Bitcoin. The Realized Volatility here refers to an indicator that basically tells us about how volatile a given asset has been based on its price returns within a specified window. When the value of this metric is high, it means that the asset in question has experienced a large number of fluctuations during the period. On the other hand, the low indicator implies that the price action has been stale for the commodity. Related Reading: Ethereum Investors Take On Sky-High Leverage: Brace For Volatile Storm? Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 1-week Realized Volatility for Bitcoin over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 1-week Bitcoin Realized Volatility has declined to pretty low levels of around 7% recently. This is so extreme that only ten other instances in the past six years have seen the metric go similarly low. This means that the cryptocurrency’s recent consolidation has been amongst the tightest in its history; as for what this trend in the indicator could mean for the cryptocurrency, perhaps past patterns could provide some hints. An inspection of the chart reveals that such stale price action in the asset has generally unwound with a burst of sharp volatility. The latest instance occurred right before the rally towards the new all-time high (ATH). Given this pattern, it’s possible that the recent BTC consolidation could also lead to another sharp move for the cryptocurrency. Something to note, however, is that the volatility emerging out of lows in the Realized Volatility has historically gone either way, implying that the price move emerging out of this tight range could very well be a crash. It remains to be seen how the Bitcoin price will develop from here on out, given the historically stale action it has witnessed over the past week. In other news, as Axel pointed out in another X post, the recent movement from the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox has meant that many on-chain indicators have shown false signals. The analyst has cited the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) chart as an example. The aSOPR keeps track of the net profit or loss investors across the network realize. As the Mt. Gox BTC had been sitting still in wallets for quite a long time, it’s not surprising that its movement has “realized” a large amount of profit. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Is One Of Cryptos Top Leading Indicators: Santiment Of course, this spike in the indicator isn’t actually a sign of profit-taking, so it’s not a signal that would impact the market. BTC Price Bitcoin has declined over the past day as its price is now down to $66,800. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Analyst Utilizes Supply And Demand Principles To Determine Bitcoin Price

For analysts and investors alike, comprehending the variables that influence price action in the complex world of cryptocurrency markets is essential. Ali Martinez, a well-known cryptocurrency expert, has recently provided insights into the fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin by applying the basic economic theory of supply and demand.  Understanding Bitcoin Prices Through Supply And Demand It is worth noting that any asset’s price movement, including cryptocurrencies, is determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. An asset’s price tends to decrease when supply outpaces demand, while prices typically increase when supply cannot keep up with demand.  Related Reading: The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-Chain Data Thus, Ali Martinez has deduced the crypto asset’s price and holders’ behaviour by applying the method and other on-chain metrics. Martinez’s analysis demonstrates how fluctuations in the market’s buying interest and the availability of Bitcoin are key factors influencing its price trajectory. According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap witnessed a significant increase mid-way through March when BTC hit a new all-time high of $73,000. This indicated that the majority of BTC’s long-term holders were likely yielding gains at the time. As a result, several investors sold their holdings, which led to a sharp rise in realized profits. Following realized profits in March, long-term holders felt safe adding over 70,000 BTC to their investments at these prices. Meanwhile, when the market’s growing supply of Bitcoin exceeded demand, the coin saw a substantial correction from the $73,000 level to the $57,000 level.  Given that short-term holders are more likely to sell their holdings due to price volatility, this decline took Bitcoin below its realized price for short-term holders, inciting fear in the market. However, despite investors’ concerns, the short-term holder’s Realized Price at the $65,500 level acted as an accumulation point. On the basis of this principle, Martinez believes the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing its upward trajectory will only increase when demand for the cryptocurrency starts to exceed the supply of BTC accessible in the market. Using BTC On Exchanges To Support The Principles Martinez has underscored that the available BTC on crypto exchanges can be used to confirm these supply and demand laws. He further noted that over 30,000 BTC have been moved to private wallets for long-term storage in May, indicating confidence among holders in the potential worth of Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accumulating Like In 2021: Is BTC Ready For A 15X? Observing Bitcoin’s price using the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, Martinez cited a retracement above the +0.5 pricing band at $64,600. Such an upswing has historically caused BTC to test the pricing range of 1.0, which is backed by increasing demand. Meanwhile, this price range at the moment is roughly lingering at $77,000. Presently, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $66,275, indicating an over 5% increase in the past week. Although prices are up, its trading volume has declined by 24%, while its market cap is up by 0.23%. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoins realized profit/loss ratio shows market satisfaction with current price levels

Bitcoin’s yearly realized profit/loss ratio measures the proportion of realized profits to realized losses over a rolling one-year period. It’s an underused but significant metric as it can act as an indicator of market sentiment. When the ratio is high, it suggests that more investors are realizing profits than incurring losses, which is typically characteristic […]

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XRP Price Prediction: $36 Is In The Cards As 3-Month Timeframe Turns Bullish?

Market sentiment around the XRP price is flipping bullish as technical indicators and recent chart movements suggest a promising upward trajectory over the next three months. With momentum building, a crypto analyst is now eyeing a potential rally that could push XRP as high as $36.  According to a new prediction posted by crypto analyst Dark Defender on X (formerly Twitter), the XRP price is gearing up for a potentially explosive surge to $36.  XRP Price Forecasted To Reach $36 The chart analysis shows that XRP has broken through a crucial three-month resistance trendline that has capped its price action since its 2018 peak. This breakout signals a powerful shift in market structure, indicating that the long-standing bearish trend may be over.  Related Reading: XRP Price Repeating History? 2017-Like Rally To Send Price To $10 Dark Defenders three-month candlestick chart applies the Elliott Wave Theory, mapping out a five-wave bullish structure. The analysis shows that Waves 1 and 2 have already played out, and XRP now appears to be entering Wave 3, which is typically seen as the strongest and longest wave.  If this Wave 3 pattern holds, XRP could be on the verge of its most powerful rally yet. According to Dark Defender, the upside target could reach as high as $36.76, representing a staggering 423.6% increase.  Before XRP reaches this projected price level, Dark Defender has forecasted shortto long-term bullish targets for the cryptocurrency. In the short term, XRP could reach $3.33, with a mid-term goal of $5.85.  Additional milestones along the way include key percentage gain levels that may act as interim resistance zones. A 161.8% gain points to a potential price of around $13.81, while a 261.8% surge suggests a move toward $18.96. If momentum continues, the token could push further to $26.87, aligning with a 361.8% increase.  On the downside, support levels at $2.3620 and $2.222 are expected to act as strongholds in case of any retracement before continuation. Moving forward, Dark Defender has doubled down on his bullish stance on XRPs future outlook, referencing a tweet dated March 17 that boldly declared, XRP is extremely bullish. Clear Path Ahead For The Altcoin As Resistance Thins Out  In an X post released on May 13, Ali Martinez, a prominent crypto analyst, disclosed that on-chain data from Glassnode shows a clear bullish path for XRP, with no signs of major resistance clusters ahead. The analysis based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicates that a significant portion of XRP tokens were last moved at lower price levels.  Related Reading: XRP Price Macro Channel Breakout That Puts Targets At $17-$55 The chart also highlights a significant support zone at $2.38, where nearly 1.85 billion XRP, amounting to 2.92% of its supply, were last transacted. This concentration of holders could serve as a psychological and technical support level if the market pulls back. Moreover, the absence of large token holdings at higher price ranges suggests that the price could experience a smoother ascent, unburdened by major resistance from profit-takers. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Ethereum Holds Above $1,900 Realized Price Signaling Long-Term Bullish Confidence

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Ethereum prices gained by 37.14% in the past week to reach a local peak of $2,600. The majority of this gain has been attributed to the recent Petra network upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain, which is designed to introduce many features, including boosting the ETH burn rate and market scarcity.  Amidst Ethereum’s rally in the past week, the altcoin recorded a significant development that signals a long-term bullish market. Related Reading: Ethereum Surge Above $2,200 Says Bear Market Is Over, Analyst Calls $5,791 Easy Target Ethereum Stays Above Realized Price – What Does It Mean? The realized price in the crypto market refers to the average acquisition price of all circulating tokens. It’s a key indicator of market sentiment as a trading price below the realized price signals a bearish market because investors are holding a loss. The reverse scenario is true for a bullish market.  In the analysis provided by CryptoQuant expert Crazzyblockk, ETH is trading above its realized price at $1900 based on the market activity for accumulating addresses, i.e., long-term holders and frequent depositors on the Binance exchange. Notably, this development just occurred in the past week despite the market rebound that has been ongoing since mid-April. The price rise above $1900 proclaims a loud bullish signal as the long-term holders are now in profits, indicating a renewed confidence in ETHs long-term value. This confidence is strongly reflected in the fact that most recent ETH outflows are moving from Binance, the most active crypto exchange for ETH trading. When Binance ETH deposit addresses show profitability with the current ETH price above the realized price, it indicates a general increase in traders’ confidence and stronger market activity. Moreover, the price rise above $1900 shows a sustained bullish momentum, indicating the market can absorb profit-taking without breaking the current uptrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Hit $40 Billion Inflows, Setting Historic Crypto Record Binance Keeps Lead In ETH Liquidity  Based on the presented analysis, Crazzyblockk further concludes that Binance boasts the most active ETH trading community in the crypto space. This is indicated by the massive ETH outflows on the exchange, suggesting a high market activity on the exchange during price appreciation.  The analyst further tipped the exchange to maintain this dominance as traders will always use the most liquid exchange to manage their positions, either for accumulation or for profit taking. At the time of writing, Ethereum trades at $2,525, reflecting a 5.88% gain in the past day. Meanwhile, the assets trading volume is down by 18.44% and valued at $33.79 billion. ETH nexts resistance remains at $2,600 following a recent rejection in the past few hours.  If the altcoin can successfully move past this barrier, a potential upswing to $2,800 lies ahead.   Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoins MVRV ratio shows LTHs move the market while STHs react

The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is one of the most important indicators for analyzing the Bitcoin market. It measures the ratio between the market cap (the current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the total number of coins in circulation) and the realized cap (the sum of the value of all coins in […]

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Heres Where Ethereums Last Line Of Defense Lies, According To On-Chain Data

On-chain data shows Ethereum has broken under all major investor cost basis levels, except for one. Here’s where this price level is currently situated. Ethereum Has Only Realized Price Of Mega Whales To Rely On Now In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, analyst MAC_D has discussed about where the next major support level could lie for Ethereum. The line in question is a version of the Realized Price. The “Realized Price” is an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of investors belonging to a given ETH cohort. When this metric is under the spot price, it means the average member of the group is holding coins at a net loss. On the other hand, it being above the asset’s value suggests the cohort as a whole is in a state of net profit. Related Reading: Bitcoin Keeps ReboundingBut Is Momentum Really Turning Bullish? Investor cost basis is considered an important topic in on-chain analysis, as holders can be more likely to show some kind of move when their profit-loss status is challenged. Whether investors react by buying or selling can come down to which direction the retest of their acquisition level is occurring from. When it’s from above, holders may decide to accumulate more if the atmosphere is bullish, as they can consider the pullback to be just a ‘dip.’ This provides support to the asset, thus defending their cost basis. Similarly, investors who were underwater just prior to the retest might believe the surge wouldn’t last and they would fall back into losses again. So, they could make the decision to exit, to at least escape with their entire investment back. A cost basis level that has shown particular importance for not just Ethereum, but digital assets in general is the Realized Price of the entire network. As the chart shared by the quant shows, this level is currently situated around $2,250 for ETH. From the graph, it’s apparent that the line provided support to Ethereum last year, but it has failed recently as the coin’s price has significantly fallen under it. This means that the average holder on the blockchain is now sitting on a notable loss. With this major level gone, the Realized Price of the individual cohorts could help point to where the next support could be. Here is a chart displaying the trend in the indicator for investors holding between 100 to 1,000 ETH, 1,000 to 10,000 ETH, 10,000 to 100,000 ETH, and more than 100,000 ETH: As is visible in the graph, Ethereum has put three of the cohorts underwater with the latest crash. Now, only the largest of holders in the sector, those with over 100,000 ETH in their balance, are still in the green. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $0.57 Or $0.06? Analyst Says DOGEs Fate Hinges On This Level Back in the 2022 bear market, ETH found support at the Realized Price of these humongous whales. Thus, it’s possible that this line could once again be of relevance to ETH. At present, the cohort has its average acquisition level at $1,290, so it will take more bearish action before a retest can take place. ETH Price At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $1,500, down more than 16% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Crypto Analyst Warns Of Volume Drop That Could Trigger 60% Bitcoin Price Crash To $49,000

Crypto analyst Melika Trader has warned of a volume drop that could trigger a 60% Bitcoin price crash. The analyst provided an in-depth analysis of what this price crash could mean and if it would mark the end of the bull run.  How The Bitcoin Price Could Crash By 60% And Drop To $49,000 In a TradingView post, Melika Trader revealed how the Bitcoin price could crash by 60% and drop to $49,000. The analyst noted that BTC is hanging just above a critical support zone, an area he claimed many traders recognize as the most important support level from a volume perspective on Binance.  Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Has Entered The Ideal Buy Zone, Heres Why His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could suffer a 60% drop once it loses the former trend line at $75,000. The flagship crypto is also in danger, having lost the critical support at around $83,000. This drop to $49,000 would bring BTC back toward the high-volume range near $30,000.  This provides an ultra-bearish outlook for the Bitcoin price. However, Melika Trader raised a twist, stating that only 20% of traders might actually lose. He noted that, according to Binances volume profile data, the majority of buying activity and position accumulation happened below $35,000.  The analyst further mentioned that most long-term holders and smart money entered during the 2022/2023 accumulation range. The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) is also said to show significant support below the current Bitcoin price, with minimal trading volume at higher levels. Melika Trader remarked that only a minority of traders bought BTC during its late-stage bull run above $70,000.  Meanwhile, the majority of investors are still in profit or break-even, even if the Bitcoin price retraces back to its base. As such, most traders are safe, as BTC risks a drop to as low as $49,000.  Why BTCs Bull Market Is Over CryptoQuants CEO, Ki Young Ju, recently asserted that BTCs bull market is over amid the Bitcoin price decline. He alluded to the Realized Cap metric to explain his confidence that the bull run is over. The CryptoQuant CEO noted that if Realized Cap is growing but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in but prices arent rising.  Related Reading: Why Buying Bitcoin Now Is Better Than Later As BTC Price Consolidates Within Falling Wedge Ki Young Ju noted that this is a clear bearish signal, and this is what is currently happening. Capital is entering the market right now, but the Bitcoin price isnt responding, which he claims is typical of a bear market. The CryptoQuant CEO explained that even large purchases like MicroStrategys arent pushing prices up because there is too much sell pressure at the moment.  Ki Young Ju again affirmed that current data points to the Bitcoin price being in a bear market. He noted that sell pressure could ease anytime but warned that historically, real reversals take at least six months. As such, the CryptoQuant CEO believes a short-term rally seems unlikely.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,000, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoins Most Critical Support Level At $69,000 Heres Why

The price of Bitcoin made a strong start to the month of April, reaching as high as $87,000 on Wednesday, April 2. The flagship cryptocurrency couldn’t sustain this blistering momentum, dropping below $84,000 in the late hours of Friday, April 4. However, the BTC price has been relatively stable compared to the altcoin market and the US equities market following the announcement of new trade tariffs by United States President Donald Trump. This show of resilience has reinforced the idea that the bull cycle might not be over just yet. Why Bitcoin Price Must Remain Above $69,000 In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci analyzed the Bitcoin market relative to the downturn affecting the broader financial markets. The analyst offered insight on the most critical support level should the premier cryptocurrency witness a similar decline. Related Reading: PEPE Price Breaks Ascending Triangle To Target Another 20% Crash Kesmeci pinpointed the Bitcoin Spot ETF Realized Price as a crucial metric to watch if the price of BTC succumbs to bearish pressure. As its name suggests, the Bitcoin Spot ETF Realized Price indicator measures the average price at which each Bitcoin exchange-traded fund was acquired. According to Kesmeci, the average purchase price of the BTC ETFs has acted as a formidable support area since the exchange-traded funds launched in early 2024. As observed in the chart below, the flagship cryptocurrency has tested the Bitcoin ETF’s realized price multiple times in the past 15 months. Kesmeci highlighted that the ETF realized price and Bitcoins most critical support level currently stand at around $69,000. The community analyst noted that the premier cryptocurrency is less likely to witness any severe correction so long as it does not slip beneath this price level. When Will BTC Resume Bull Run? While the Bitcoin ETFs realized price is a crucial support level that could prevent a deep correction, the short-term holder (STH) realized price could prove pivotal to the resumption of the bull run. Ali Martinez said in a post on X that the first signal that BTC is ready to resume its bull run is reclaiming the short-term holder realized price at $90,570. As seen in the chart above, the STH realized price is acting as a major resistance to the premier cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin price has tested the on-chain indicator twice since falling beneath it in late February. As of this writing, the market leader is valued at around $83,900, reflecting an over 1% price leap in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of BTC is down by nearly 1% in the last seven days. Related Reading: Chainlink Whales Dump Over 170 Million LINK In Three Weeks Selling Pressure Ahead? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoins Hot Capital Hits Multi-Month Peak at $39.1B: Glassnode

Bitcoin's hot capital increase to $39.1 billion marks a 92% rise in short-term activity and is proof of renewed interest. Most BTC holders remain in profit.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Last Leg-Up That Confirms A Resounding Rally To $150,000

A new Bitcoin price prediction suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency needs just one more leg up to kickstart a powerful bullish move toward $150,000 and beyond. With Bitcoin getting ready to once again hit new all-time highs, technical formations suggest that this projected rally could be the final confirmation of a long-term breakout.   Bitcoin Price Roadmap To $150,000 ATH A new Bitcoin price analysis released by market expert CrediBull Crypto on X (formerly Twitter) predicts that BTC is gearing up for a massive surge to $150,000. The analyst shared a Bitcoin price chart, using Elliott Wave theory on the lower time frames to break down the roadmap to this new all-time high target.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Bullish Confirmation: What Needs To Happen For Next Leg Up To $130,000 Bitcoin is currently forming a 5-wave impulse move on the lower timeframe. The recent price action suggests that it has completed sub-waves i, ii, iii, iv, and v, collectively forming what appears to be Wave 1. Following this, the cryptocurrency experienced a collective pullback in Wave 2, which acted as support and now serves as a launchpad for the next major leg in Wave 3the longest and most explosive wave in an impulse sequence.   If the next wave completes to the upside, it would strongly suggest that Bitcoin is not in a corrective pattern but rather an impulsive trend that could take it to a six-figure valuation once again.  CrediBull Crypto has highlighted $89,000 as a critical level for Bitcoin. He suggested that if the cryptocurrency drops below this price zone before pushing higher, the Elliott Wave structure would likely morph into a 3-legged corrective pattern rather than a 5-wave impulse. This move would imply that the projected rally is not the start of a macro breakout, and the market may have to wait longer for a confirmation.  On the other hand, holding above $89,000 and printing a higher high would complete the anticipated final leg up, validating the start of the large Wave 3 on higher time frames. This bullish scenario would support a strong accumulation strategy, where price declines could become opportunities to buy as Bitcoin targets $150,000 or more.  MVRV Golden Cross Signals BTC Bull Rally Bitcoins Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has formed a Golden Cross with its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), according to fresh data shared by crypto analyst Ali Martínez. The analyst has shared an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, highlighting that this technical event could spark the next BTC bull rally.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Following Analysts Prediction For Bullish Breakout, Heres The Target The Bitcoin chart, published via CryptoQuant, highlights the MVRV ratio surging above the long-term Moving Average. A rising MVRV ratio typically suggests that BTC holders are once again in profit, and sentiment is shifting from bearish to bullish. The last time this crossover occurred, Bitcoin saw a multi-month rally that pushed its price to new all-time highs. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Trader Selling Pressure Declining, CryptoQuant Head Explains Why

The head of research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why selling pressure from Bitcoin traders may be declining. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Has Risen To $60,000 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has discussed why the short-term holder selling pressure may be declining for BTC. [...]

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