Bitcoin Makes Third Retest Of Historical Support, Analyst Sounds Alarm

An analyst has warned that support levels weaken the more they are retested and Bitcoin is now doing a third consecutive retest of a major such level. Bitcoin Is Again Retesting The Short-Term Holder Realized Price As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC’s latest drawdown has led to it doing another retest of the short-term holder Realized Price. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of the investors or addresses on the Bitcoin network. When the value of this metric is greater than the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the average investor in the market could be assumed to be holding a net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the indicator being below the asset’s value suggests the dominance of losses on the blockchain. Related Reading: Ethereum Seeing High Exchange Outflows, But Watch Out For This Bearish Signal In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of the entire userbase isn’t of interest, but that of a specific segment of it: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for the STHs over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin spot price had slipped under the STH Realized Price in June, but it finally managed to break above the line halfway through last month. In the weeks since the asset has seen a couple of pullbacks back to the line, but it has managed to find rebounds each time. Now, after the latest decline, the coin’s price is once again retesting the level. Historically, the STH Realized Price has been a reliable point of support for the cryptocurrency during bullish periods. The explanation behind this pattern may lie in how investor psychology works. The STHs represent the fickle-minded side of the sector, who are sensitive to change. As such, whenever the price retests their cost basis, they may be prone to making panic moves. In times when the atmosphere in the market is bullish, the STHs may believe such a retest to merely be a dip opportunity, so they could decide to accumulate more. This could be why Bitcoin has found rebounds at the level in the past. While the level has generally been reliable indeed, this latest retest that BTC is facing is already the third within a narrow period. “Each time a level is tested, it becomes weaker,” notes Maartunn. Related Reading: XRP Bullish Signal: Shark & Whale Population Sharply Growing It now remains to be seen if the Bitcoin STHs still carry a bullish outlook on the cryptocurrency or if the constant pullbacks have put fear on their minds. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued its recent bearish momentum in the past 24 hours as its price has slid another 2% to reach the $64,700 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Bull Cycle Likely To Go On Till Mid-2025: CryptoQuant CEO

The CEO and founder of the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how this Bitcoin bull cycle could probably last till mid-2025. Profit-Taking From Old Bitcoin Whales Lasted For 18 Months In Previous Cycles In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about a pattern that old whales have followed in terms of profit-taking during the past cycles. “Old whales take profits during bull markets,” notes Young Ju. “Their selling brings new capital into accumulation addresses, raising realized prices.” Accumulation Addresses refer to the Bitcoin wallets that have no history of selling. These addresses also have a few other conditions, such as they must have at least two deposits and shouldn’t be connected to miners or centralized exchanges. They should also carry a balance of at least 10 BTC, and their last transaction should have been within the past seven years. Related Reading: Shiba Inu, XRP Forming Bullish Divergence, Analytics Firm Reveals The Accumulation Addresses basically reflect the perennial HODLers of the market, who only buy more and never sell. During bull markets, as old whales break their silence to harvest their profits, demand from these HODLers absorbs the selling. To display this trend, the CryptoQuant CEO has made use of the “Realized Price” metric, which keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor belonging to this cohort. When the value of this indicator is above the spot price of the cryptocurrency, it means the cohort as a whole is in a state of unrealized loss right now. On the other hand, it being under BTC’s value implies these diamond hands are currently carrying profits. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for the Bitcoin Accumulation Addresses over the past decade: As shown in the above graph, the Realized Price for this cohort observed a rise during the last two Bitcoin bull runs. This would suggest that these HODLers were buying as prices were going up, thus raising their average cost basis. This accumulation likely corresponded to profit-taking from other entities in the market. As Young Ju has pointed out, this profit-taking spree lasted for about 18 months in these past cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes To $64,000: Will This Historical Support Hold? From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has once again started showing an uptrend with the price rally this year. This would suggest that the Accumulation Addresses are back to absorbing profit-taking from old whales. So far, this rise has lasted for around four months, which means that there could still be around another fourteen months of it left, if the last two cycles are anything to go by. Based on this, the analyst thinks this latest Bitcoin bull cycle could end up running into mid-2025. BTC Price Bitcoin has edged close to the $70,000 level during the past day after observing a surge of around 3%. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Forming A Signal Thats Usually Very Bullish, Analyst Says

An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin is back above the cost basis of the short-term holders, a sign that can be bullish for the asset. Bitcoin Is Back Above The Realized Price Of Short-Term Holders As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, BTC has reclaimed the Realized Price [...]

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Bitcoin Slips Under $67,000: Can BTC Rely On This Historical Support Again?

Bitcoin has observed a plunge during the past day, taking the asset’s price under $67,000. Here’s the historical support level that the asset could visit next. Bitcoin Is Now Not Far From The Short-Term Holder Realized Price As analyst James Van Straten pointed out in a post on X, the Realized Price of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders has been going up recently and currently sits around the $64,000 level. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor in the BTC market. This indicator is based on the “Realized Cap” model for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery When the asset’s spot price is greater than the Realized Price, it means the investors are carrying some net unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, the coin’s value under the metric suggests the dominance of losses in the market. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific sector segment is of interest: the Short-Term Holders (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the Bitcoin STHs over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price rapidly climbed during the rally towards the all-time high price (ATH) earlier in the year. This trend naturally makes sense, as the STHs represent the new investors in the market, who would have had to buy at higher prices as the asset climbed up, thus pushing the cohort’s average up. Since BTC’s consolidation phase following the March ATH, the indicator’s uptrend has slowed, but its value is increasing nonetheless. After the latest increase, the metric has approached $64,000. Now, what significance does the Realized Price of the STHs have? Historically, this indicator has taken turns acting as a major support and resistance line for the cryptocurrency. During bullish periods, this metric can facilitate bottom formations for the cryptocurrency, thus keeping it above itself, while bearish trends generally witness the line acting as a barrier preventing the coin from escaping above it. Transitions beyond this level have generally reflected a flip trend for the coin. This apparent pattern has held up likely because the STHs, being the relatively inexperienced hands, can be quite reactive. The cost basis is an important level for any investor, but this cohort, in particular, can be more likely to panic when a retest of their cost basis takes place. When the sentiment in the market is bullish, the STHs could decide to buy more when the price drops to their average cost basis, believing the drawdown to be merely a “dip” opportunity. In bearish phases, though, they may react to such a retest by panic selling instead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Next Top At $89,200, Crypto Analyst Suggests The chart shows that Bitcoin found support around this line during the crash at the end of April/start of May, potentially implying a bullish sentiment has continued to be dominant. With BTC seeing a drop below $67,000 in the past day and the STH Realized Price closing in at $64,000, it will be interesting to see how a potential retest would play out this time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,800, down over 3% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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XRP Price Prediction: $36 Is In The Cards As 3-Month Timeframe Turns Bullish?

Market sentiment around the XRP price is flipping bullish as technical indicators and recent chart movements suggest a promising upward trajectory over the next three months. With momentum building, a crypto analyst is now eyeing a potential rally that could push XRP as high as $36.  According to a new prediction posted by crypto analyst Dark Defender on X (formerly Twitter), the XRP price is gearing up for a potentially explosive surge to $36.  XRP Price Forecasted To Reach $36 The chart analysis shows that XRP has broken through a crucial three-month resistance trendline that has capped its price action since its 2018 peak. This breakout signals a powerful shift in market structure, indicating that the long-standing bearish trend may be over.  Related Reading: XRP Price Repeating History? 2017-Like Rally To Send Price To $10 Dark Defenders three-month candlestick chart applies the Elliott Wave Theory, mapping out a five-wave bullish structure. The analysis shows that Waves 1 and 2 have already played out, and XRP now appears to be entering Wave 3, which is typically seen as the strongest and longest wave.  If this Wave 3 pattern holds, XRP could be on the verge of its most powerful rally yet. According to Dark Defender, the upside target could reach as high as $36.76, representing a staggering 423.6% increase.  Before XRP reaches this projected price level, Dark Defender has forecasted shortto long-term bullish targets for the cryptocurrency. In the short term, XRP could reach $3.33, with a mid-term goal of $5.85.  Additional milestones along the way include key percentage gain levels that may act as interim resistance zones. A 161.8% gain points to a potential price of around $13.81, while a 261.8% surge suggests a move toward $18.96. If momentum continues, the token could push further to $26.87, aligning with a 361.8% increase.  On the downside, support levels at $2.3620 and $2.222 are expected to act as strongholds in case of any retracement before continuation. Moving forward, Dark Defender has doubled down on his bullish stance on XRPs future outlook, referencing a tweet dated March 17 that boldly declared, XRP is extremely bullish. Clear Path Ahead For The Altcoin As Resistance Thins Out  In an X post released on May 13, Ali Martinez, a prominent crypto analyst, disclosed that on-chain data from Glassnode shows a clear bullish path for XRP, with no signs of major resistance clusters ahead. The analysis based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicates that a significant portion of XRP tokens were last moved at lower price levels.  Related Reading: XRP Price Macro Channel Breakout That Puts Targets At $17-$55 The chart also highlights a significant support zone at $2.38, where nearly 1.85 billion XRP, amounting to 2.92% of its supply, were last transacted. This concentration of holders could serve as a psychological and technical support level if the market pulls back. Moreover, the absence of large token holdings at higher price ranges suggests that the price could experience a smoother ascent, unburdened by major resistance from profit-takers. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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Ethereum Holds Above $1,900 Realized Price Signaling Long-Term Bullish Confidence

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Ethereum prices gained by 37.14% in the past week to reach a local peak of $2,600. The majority of this gain has been attributed to the recent Petra network upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain, which is designed to introduce many features, including boosting the ETH burn rate and market scarcity.  Amidst Ethereum’s rally in the past week, the altcoin recorded a significant development that signals a long-term bullish market. Related Reading: Ethereum Surge Above $2,200 Says Bear Market Is Over, Analyst Calls $5,791 Easy Target Ethereum Stays Above Realized Price – What Does It Mean? The realized price in the crypto market refers to the average acquisition price of all circulating tokens. It’s a key indicator of market sentiment as a trading price below the realized price signals a bearish market because investors are holding a loss. The reverse scenario is true for a bullish market.  In the analysis provided by CryptoQuant expert Crazzyblockk, ETH is trading above its realized price at $1900 based on the market activity for accumulating addresses, i.e., long-term holders and frequent depositors on the Binance exchange. Notably, this development just occurred in the past week despite the market rebound that has been ongoing since mid-April. The price rise above $1900 proclaims a loud bullish signal as the long-term holders are now in profits, indicating a renewed confidence in ETHs long-term value. This confidence is strongly reflected in the fact that most recent ETH outflows are moving from Binance, the most active crypto exchange for ETH trading. When Binance ETH deposit addresses show profitability with the current ETH price above the realized price, it indicates a general increase in traders’ confidence and stronger market activity. Moreover, the price rise above $1900 shows a sustained bullish momentum, indicating the market can absorb profit-taking without breaking the current uptrend. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Hit $40 Billion Inflows, Setting Historic Crypto Record Binance Keeps Lead In ETH Liquidity  Based on the presented analysis, Crazzyblockk further concludes that Binance boasts the most active ETH trading community in the crypto space. This is indicated by the massive ETH outflows on the exchange, suggesting a high market activity on the exchange during price appreciation.  The analyst further tipped the exchange to maintain this dominance as traders will always use the most liquid exchange to manage their positions, either for accumulation or for profit taking. At the time of writing, Ethereum trades at $2,525, reflecting a 5.88% gain in the past day. Meanwhile, the assets trading volume is down by 18.44% and valued at $33.79 billion. ETH nexts resistance remains at $2,600 following a recent rejection in the past few hours.  If the altcoin can successfully move past this barrier, a potential upswing to $2,800 lies ahead.   Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview

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Heres Where Ethereums Last Line Of Defense Lies, According To On-Chain Data

On-chain data shows Ethereum has broken under all major investor cost basis levels, except for one. Here’s where this price level is currently situated. Ethereum Has Only Realized Price Of Mega Whales To Rely On Now In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, analyst MAC_D has discussed about where the next major support level could lie for Ethereum. The line in question is a version of the Realized Price. The “Realized Price” is an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average cost basis of investors belonging to a given ETH cohort. When this metric is under the spot price, it means the average member of the group is holding coins at a net loss. On the other hand, it being above the asset’s value suggests the cohort as a whole is in a state of net profit. Related Reading: Bitcoin Keeps ReboundingBut Is Momentum Really Turning Bullish? Investor cost basis is considered an important topic in on-chain analysis, as holders can be more likely to show some kind of move when their profit-loss status is challenged. Whether investors react by buying or selling can come down to which direction the retest of their acquisition level is occurring from. When it’s from above, holders may decide to accumulate more if the atmosphere is bullish, as they can consider the pullback to be just a ‘dip.’ This provides support to the asset, thus defending their cost basis. Similarly, investors who were underwater just prior to the retest might believe the surge wouldn’t last and they would fall back into losses again. So, they could make the decision to exit, to at least escape with their entire investment back. A cost basis level that has shown particular importance for not just Ethereum, but digital assets in general is the Realized Price of the entire network. As the chart shared by the quant shows, this level is currently situated around $2,250 for ETH. From the graph, it’s apparent that the line provided support to Ethereum last year, but it has failed recently as the coin’s price has significantly fallen under it. This means that the average holder on the blockchain is now sitting on a notable loss. With this major level gone, the Realized Price of the individual cohorts could help point to where the next support could be. Here is a chart displaying the trend in the indicator for investors holding between 100 to 1,000 ETH, 1,000 to 10,000 ETH, 10,000 to 100,000 ETH, and more than 100,000 ETH: As is visible in the graph, Ethereum has put three of the cohorts underwater with the latest crash. Now, only the largest of holders in the sector, those with over 100,000 ETH in their balance, are still in the green. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $0.57 Or $0.06? Analyst Says DOGEs Fate Hinges On This Level Back in the 2022 bear market, ETH found support at the Realized Price of these humongous whales. Thus, it’s possible that this line could once again be of relevance to ETH. At present, the cohort has its average acquisition level at $1,290, so it will take more bearish action before a retest can take place. ETH Price At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $1,500, down more than 16% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoins Most Critical Support Level At $69,000 Heres Why

The price of Bitcoin made a strong start to the month of April, reaching as high as $87,000 on Wednesday, April 2. The flagship cryptocurrency couldn’t sustain this blistering momentum, dropping below $84,000 in the late hours of Friday, April 4. However, the BTC price has been relatively stable compared to the altcoin market and the US equities market following the announcement of new trade tariffs by United States President Donald Trump. This show of resilience has reinforced the idea that the bull cycle might not be over just yet. Why Bitcoin Price Must Remain Above $69,000 In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci analyzed the Bitcoin market relative to the downturn affecting the broader financial markets. The analyst offered insight on the most critical support level should the premier cryptocurrency witness a similar decline. Related Reading: PEPE Price Breaks Ascending Triangle To Target Another 20% Crash Kesmeci pinpointed the Bitcoin Spot ETF Realized Price as a crucial metric to watch if the price of BTC succumbs to bearish pressure. As its name suggests, the Bitcoin Spot ETF Realized Price indicator measures the average price at which each Bitcoin exchange-traded fund was acquired. According to Kesmeci, the average purchase price of the BTC ETFs has acted as a formidable support area since the exchange-traded funds launched in early 2024. As observed in the chart below, the flagship cryptocurrency has tested the Bitcoin ETF’s realized price multiple times in the past 15 months. Kesmeci highlighted that the ETF realized price and Bitcoins most critical support level currently stand at around $69,000. The community analyst noted that the premier cryptocurrency is less likely to witness any severe correction so long as it does not slip beneath this price level. When Will BTC Resume Bull Run? While the Bitcoin ETFs realized price is a crucial support level that could prevent a deep correction, the short-term holder (STH) realized price could prove pivotal to the resumption of the bull run. Ali Martinez said in a post on X that the first signal that BTC is ready to resume its bull run is reclaiming the short-term holder realized price at $90,570. As seen in the chart above, the STH realized price is acting as a major resistance to the premier cryptocurrency. The Bitcoin price has tested the on-chain indicator twice since falling beneath it in late February. As of this writing, the market leader is valued at around $83,900, reflecting an over 1% price leap in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of BTC is down by nearly 1% in the last seven days. Related Reading: Chainlink Whales Dump Over 170 Million LINK In Three Weeks Selling Pressure Ahead? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Trader Selling Pressure Declining, CryptoQuant Head Explains Why

The head of research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why selling pressure from Bitcoin traders may be declining. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Has Risen To $60,000 In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has discussed why the short-term holder selling pressure may be declining for BTC. [...]

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Bitcoin Could Hit $86,000 If This Key Level Is Surpassed: Analyst

In a compelling forecast for Bitcoin, Ali Martinez, a well-known cryptocurrency expert and trader, has pointed out a possible development that could propel the crypto asset’s price to the $86,000 threshold in the foreseeable future. Bitcoin Movement Determined By Key Levels The analyst’s positive perspective highlights the possibility of a large upward shift in the price trend of Bitcoin, igniting interest and speculation in the cryptocurrency space.  Ali Martinez’s analysis primarily focuses on several key support and resistance levels, of which a break out from these levels will determine the future trajectory of Bitcoin.  Related Reading: Are The Odds In Bitcoin Bulls Favor? These Analysts Forecast BTCs Future According to the expert, it appears the digital asset has been gathering momentum in a parallel channel. As a result, the $61,000 mark becomes the most significant support level, while the $72,400 mark becomes the most crucial resistance level. Martinez affirms that Bitcoin might plummet toward the $56,200 and $51,600 range if it manages to surpass the aforementioned support level. However, should it break out from the $72,400 resistance zone, $79,000 and $86,000 are the next price targets to expect. Considering the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart, Martinez notes that $62,000 also proves to be an important support area for Bitcoin. If this level is lost, attention might move to the following significant demand region, which is situated around $51,500. On the other hand, the likelihood of the bull run rekindling would be largely increased should there be a rise back above $66,250. This suggests a new wave of confidence and enthusiasm from market investors and players. Martinez has also identified a notable shift in the accumulation trend score for Bitcoin lately. Specifically, the recent development marks the first time it has happened in six months, and it is now pegged at 0.27. This change suggests that BTC whales might be selling off their holdings rather than hoarding the crypto asset even more. Interest From ETF Investors To Impact Price Substantially Despite the negative performance of BTC lately, several analysts still believe the coin is headed for unprecedented heights. Crypto expert Willy Woo recently made a bold forecast, putting his price target at $650,000 at the bull market top and $91,000 at the bear market bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Issuers Push Holdings To 4.27% Of BTC Supply Amid Crash To $61,000 Willy Woo expects the coin to top out at this level when ETF investors have completely deployed their capital based on asset manager recommendations. Furthermore, Woo stated that while these figures are quite cautious, Bitcoin will surpass the gold cap after ETFs have served their purpose. “Gold went on a 12-year bull run when its ETF was approved, now it is Bitcoin’s turn,” he added. In the last day, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between a low of $62,000 and a high of $66,000, ultimately concluding around $63,000. Its daily trading volume has decreased by 20%, indicating a declining intreest from traders. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

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Bitcoin Rebounds After Nearing Cost Basis Of Short-Term Whales

Bitcoin has found a rebound back above the $66,000 mark following a drop towards the on-chain cost basis of the short-term holder whales. Bitcoin Drawdown Had Nearly Put Short-Term Whales Under Pressure As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, BTC’s price had neared the Realized Price of the short-term holder whales during the recent drop, but had still managed to remain above the level. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis (that is, the acquisition price) of the average investor in the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: PEPE Preparing For A 54% Move? Analyst Thinks So When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is trading above this level, it means that the investors as a whole are in a state of unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, it being under implies the overall market is carrying losses. In the context of the current discussion, the Realized Price of the entire Bitcoin market isn’t of interest, but that of only a part of it: the short-term holder (STH) whales. The STHs refer to the BTC investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, while the whales are categorized as entities holding greater than 1,000 BTC. As such, the STH whales would refer to the large investors who bought during the last five months. Naturally, the Realized Price of this group would indicate the average whale buying price over the past five months (and this price would obviously have to be one the cryptocurrency had traded at on some occasion inside this timeframe). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for the STH whales over the last decade: The value of the metric appears to have shot up in recent months | Source: CryptoQuant From the graph, it’s visible that the Realized Price of the STH whales has rapidly climbed alongside the sharp rally Bitcoin has gone through this year. This makes sense, as the STHs represent the new hands coming into the market, who would have to buy at higher prices as the asset’s surge would continue. Not only that, but the STHs who age past the 155 days mark (that is, those who bought at the relatively low prices) exit out of the cohort, thus raising the average even further. The group that these matured investors advance to is known as the long-term holder (LTH) cohort. In the same chart, the quant has also attached the data for the Realized Price of the LTH whales as well. It would appear that these veteran whales have their cost basis at just $21,500, meaning that these investors would be getting some big rewards for their patience. In contrast, the STH whales have their Realized Price at $60,700. Related Reading: Dogecoin Usurped: These Memecoins Overtake DOGE In Active Trader Count During Bitcoin’s recent drawdown, the asset had come close to retesting this mark. Such retests have historically lead to reactions in the market and during bull runs, this reaction has often appeared in the form of buying. This may be why the cryptocurrency found its rebound near the $60,700 level. BTC Price With its latest rebound, Bitcoin has so far managed to recover back towards the $66,500 level. Looks like the price of the coin has made some recovery from its recent drop | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Thomas Kelley on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum Stays Below Realized Price: Once-In-A-Cycle Opportunity?

Ethereum surprised the market with a powerful bounce on Wednesday, surging more than 21% from its recent low of $1,380. The move came shortly after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, which now faces a 145% tariff. This development injected optimism into global markets, triggering a broad recovery across risk assets with ETH among the top beneficiaries. Related Reading: Dogecoin Whales Buy Over 80 Million DOGE In 24 Hours Sign Of Recovery? Despite the relief rally, Ethereum still trades below critical technical levels, and the broader price structure suggests ongoing consolidation rather than a confirmed reversal. Analysts remain cautious, as the assets inability to reclaim the $1,800$2,000 range keeps the long-term trend in question. However, on-chain data from CryptoQuant adds an intriguing layer to the current outlook. Ethereums price is still trading below its realized price the average price at which all ETH in circulation last moved. Historically, this scenario has represented a high-probability accumulation zone, often appearing once per cycle. According to some analysts, this could present a rare buying opportunity for contrarian investors willing to look beyond short-term volatility and macro uncertainty. As Ethereum continues to consolidate, all eyes are on whether bulls can build on this momentum. Ethereum Faces Critical Test Amid Volatility And Trade Tensions Ethereum is at a pivotal point after enduring weeks of relentless selling pressure and extreme volatility. The broader market has been shaken by macroeconomic uncertainty and escalating global trade tensions, with US tariffs under Trump’s administration continuing to rattle investor confidence. The crypto market, particularly altcoins like Ethereum, has taken the brunt of this instability. ETH has lost over 60% of its value since late December, raising fears of a prolonged bear market. However, a shift may be unfolding. Bulls are beginning to reappear, with Ethereum bouncing and setting a strong support above $1,400. This recovery follows aggressive price swings not only in crypto but also in global equities, which have seen significant rebounds following the announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China. Still, Ethereum remains below crucial resistance levels, especially the $2,000 mark a level that represents more than just a psychological barrier. According to top analyst Quinten Francois, ETH is currently trading under its realized price, which averages the cost basis of all coins in circulation. Historically, such conditions have presented rare buying opportunities. Francois suggests this might be a once-in-a-cycle or even once-in-a-lifetime chance for long-term investors to accumulate ETH at undervalued levels. The coming days will determine whether bulls can reclaim key resistance and shift sentiment toward a sustained recovery. Related Reading: Solana Approaches $125 Will 2-Level Filter Trigger A Long Signal? Price Action Details: Key Levels To Reclaim Ethereum is currently trading at $1,650 after failing to break above the $1,700 level, a psychological and technical barrier that continues to cap bullish momentum. Despite a sharp rebound earlier in the week, ETH remains stuck in a consolidation range and is struggling to find direction amid broader market uncertainty. For bulls to regain control and initiate a stronger recovery, Ethereum must push above the $1,850 mark a level aligned with the 4-hour 200-day moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). These indicators have acted as short-term resistance since ETH fell below the $2,000 mark in February and reclaiming them is critical for confirming a shift in trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Conviction: 63% Of Supply Hasnt Moved In A Year However, if Ethereum fails to break above $1,750 in the coming days, downside risk increases significantly. A rejection at current levels could trigger another wave of selling, potentially sending the price below the $1,500 support zone. This would put further pressure on bulls and undermine recent gains. With market sentiment still fragile and macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on investor confidence, Ethereum remains at a crucial juncture where a decisive move above resistance is needed to shift the outlook from bearish to neutral. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin short-term holder realized price growth hits a speed bump

The realized Bitcoin price represents the average on-chain acquisition cost. It’s a handy metric as it perfectly gauges the market’s valuation baseline at any given point. When dissected through the lens of short-term and long-term holders, it provides insights into the cohorts’ investment horizons and their acute effect on Bitcoin’s price. These cohorts’ 7-day change […]

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Bitcoin STH Average Cost Basis At $90,950 Why Is It Relevant?

The Bitcoin price continues to dance within the newly formed $80,000 – $85,000 range, showing some level of indecisiveness in its movement. Since the premier cryptocurrency lost its hold above $90,000, investors have wondered whether the ongoing correction is a “buy the dip” opportunity or the market top is in. While there is no surefire way to put these doubts away, on-chain data can provide relevant insights into what is to come. The latest on-chain data suggests the highlighted level below is the one to watch before investors return to the market. Level To Watch Before ‘Buying The Dip’ In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analyst Maartunn shared that it might not be technically secure to reenter the Bitcoin market at the current price. This analysis is based on the movement of the Bitcoin price relative to the current value of the short-term holders’ (STH) average cost basis. Related Reading: Litecoin Price Shows Resilience In Uncertain Market Conditions Whats Next For LTC? The STH average cost basis metric estimates the average price at which short-term holders (investors who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days) acquired their coins. It represents a psychological level for BTC investors and could act as a reference point for price analysis, especially during bull cycles. Bitcoin usually trades above the short-term holders’ average cost basis during bull markets, signaling substantial buying pressure and optimistic sentiment from short-term investors. On the flip side, when the price of BTC falls beneath this cost basis as seen in the ongoing correction, it implies that short-term investors are at a loss, which could lead to a sell-off and precipitate significant bearish pressure. According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin price is currently 6% below the short-term holders’ average cost basis at $90,950. With the flagship cryptocurrency beneath the realized price of short-term holders, the odds are that BTC price could face further selling pressure as the investor cohort looks to minimize their loss. Using this logic, Maartunn noted that investors might want to wait till the price of Bitcoin climbs above the STH average cost price before reentering the market. Interestingly, the short-term investors appear to still be loading their bags. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed in a post on X that short-term holders have purchased more than 35,000 BTC in the past 4 days. Bitcoin Price At A Glance  As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just below the $86,000 mark, reflecting an over 2% jump in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Whales Add 190,000 Ethereum In The Last 24 Hours The Accumulation Continues Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin To $53,200? Why History Says Its Possible

As Bitcoin drops below $68,000, history suggests this correction is rather tame for bull markets, as plunges to this deep on-chain level have been the norm. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Currently Around $53,200 As pointed out by CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn in a post on X, BTC still has a decent margin over the realized price of the short-term holders. The “realized price” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the average price at which the Bitcoin investors acquired their coins. The indicator calculates this value by going through the transaction history of each coin and assuming that the last transfer of it was the last time it was purchased (that is, the price at the time is its current cost basis). Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today? 3 Key Reasons When the spot value of the cryptocurrency dips below the realized price, it means that the average investor is now in a state of loss. On the other hand, a break above implies the market as a whole has entered into net profits. In the context of the current discussion, the realized price for only a particular segment of the investors is of interest: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for this cohort: Looks like the value of the metric has been trending up recently | Source: @JA_Maartun on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH realized price has shot up recently as the price of the asset has gone up. This makes sense, as this group includes the most recent buyers, who would continuously be buying at higher prices in an uptrend, thus raising their average cost basis. At present, this cohort’s realized price is about $53,200. During the past day, BTC has seen a sharp drop that has taken its price below the $68,000 mark, but clearly, the STHs would still be in high profits even after this drawdown. “In previous bull markets, the average cost basis of short-term holders was fully reset multiple times,” explains Maartunn. This trend is most prominent in the data for the 2017 bull run when the price retested this level several times. An interesting pattern that has been held is that these retests of the level during bull trends have generally resulted in the cryptocurrency finding support and turning itself back around. The explanation for this trend may lie in the fickle nature of the STHs. The cost basis is an important level for these investors, and when a retest of it happens, they panic and show some reaction. Related Reading: Brace For Impact: MicroStrategy Is Planning Another $500 Million Bitcoin Purchase During uptrends, these holders are more likely to buy more when a retest of their cost basis occurs since they may think that the same price levels that were profitable earlier will be so again in the near future. Naturally, it’s not a certainty that Bitcoin would also end up retesting this level in this bull market. Still, a correction might reach close to it if the historical precedent is anything to go by. BTC Price Following its 7% drop in the past day, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,700. The price of the coin has registered a sharp drop over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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This Highly Profitable Bitcoin Cross Has Just Formed Again

On-chain data shows that a Bitcoin cross that has proved quite profitable has once again formed for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Realized Price Of Short-Term Holders Overtakes Long-Term Holders As an analyst in a CryptoQuant post explained, the realized price of the 1 to 3 months holders has just exceeded that of the 6 to 12 months investors. The “realized price” here refers to a metric derived from the “realized cap,” which is a capitalization model for Bitcoin that assumes a coin’s true value is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain rather than the current BTC price as the usual market cap says. The realized price is obtained when the realized cap is divided by the total number of coins in circulation. Since the realized cap accounted for the prices at which the investors acquired their coins (their “cost basis”), the realized price represents the average acquisition price in the market. This means that whenever the Bitcoin price dips below this metric, the average cryptocurrency investor holds assets at a loss. Similarly, a break above implies a transition towards profits for the average investor. In the context of the current discussion, the realized price of three specific segments of the market is relevant; the holders who bought between 1 month and 3 months ago, 3 months and 6 months ago, and 6 months and 12 months ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bearish Signal: NVT Golden Cross Enters Overbought Zone The first two of these are parts of the “short-term holder” (STH) cohort, while the third one is part of the “long-term holder” (LTH) group. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for these segments of the market: Looks like two of these metrics have come together in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As shown in the above graph, an interesting pattern formed during the leadup to the 2021 bull run. First, the realized price of the 1-month to 3 months cohort exceeded that of the 6- 12 months group. Following this crossover, BTC saw some sharp uptrend, but it didn’t last long. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market At Decision Point: aSOPR Retests Crucial Level Then, as this price increase winded down, the 3- 6 months segment also crossed above this LTH cohort. These crossovers implied that fresh purchases were happening in the market as the rally built up. Since the prices were rising during this leadup, the STHs had to buy at higher and higher prices, which is why their realized price went up and eventually became higher than the LTHs’. After these crossovers were completed, the BTC bull run ramped up. Recently, the first of these crossovers seem to be forming again, as the realized price of the 1-month 3 months group is now equal to that of the 6 months to 12 months band. While it’s uncertain if the second crossover will also go and take shape now, Bitcoin could observe at least some bullish momentum from this initial cross alone (assuming that it’s not just a fake-out), just like it did back in 2020. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,800, up 1% in the last week. BTC has seen rapid increase in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Dylan Leagh on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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$28.7k Could Be Next Level To Break For Bitcoin, Here’s Why

On-chain data suggests the $28,700 mark, which Bitcoin has yet to hit since the LUNA collapse, could be the next major obstacle to clear for the asset. Bitcoin Has Been Under The $28,700 Level For 310 Days Now According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the $28,700 is the cost basis (that is, [...]

The post $28.7k Could Be Next Level To Break For Bitcoin, Here’s Why appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.

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Research: Withdrawal price – A new way of assessing Bitcoin

Assessing the health of the crypto market requires looking at more than just Bitcoin’s price.

The post Research: Withdrawal price – A new way of assessing Bitcoin appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Six on-chain metrics suggesting Bitcoin is a 'generational buying opportunity'

Six tried and tested on-chain metrics are repeating patterns last seen at the bottom of the past three bear markets.

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Here’s Why $22,400 Could Be The Next Major Level To Break For Bitcoin

As Bitcoin continues its strong rally, $22,400 could be the level to watch next, if this on-chain metric is anything to go by. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Realized Price Is Currently Around $22,400 According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, BTC broke through all three realized prices of the market back in April 2019. To understand the concept of “realized price,” the realized cap needs to be looked at first. The realized cap is a capitalization model for BTC that values each coin in circulation at the price it was last transacted. This is different from the usual market cap, which puts the value of all tokens at the same current price of Bitcoin. When the market cap is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, the BTC price is obtained, a fact that isn’t unexpected at all, as the market cap is calculated by multiplying the price by the number of coins to start with. However, if this same idea is applied to the realized cap (that is if it’s divided by the number of coins), a sort of “realized price” can be derived. The significance of this price is that it’s the cost basis of the average holder in the Bitcoin market. The implication of this is that if the (normal) price of BTC declines under this realized price, the average investor can be thought to have entered into a state of loss. Related Reading: Glassnode Points Out This Bizarre Consistency In Bitcoin Cycles All investors in the market can be divided into two major cohorts: the “short-term holders” (STHs) and the “long-term holders” (LTHs). The former includes investors who acquired their coins less than 155 days ago, while the latter consists of holders who have been holding their coins for more than that period. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the realized price for the entire Bitcoin market, as well as that for the STHs and LTHs, over the last five years: Looks like the value of the crypto has broken past all but one of these metrics | Source: Glassnode The Week Onchain - Week 3, 2023 As shown in the above graph, the BTC price had been below all three of these realized prices for much of the bear market, suggesting that the average Bitcoin investor in all the cohorts was carrying an unrealized loss. However, in the most recent rally, the crypto has so far managed to break above the STH cost basis ($18,000), as well as that of the entire market ($19,700). The LTH realized price of about $22,400 is yet to be reached by the coin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Show Signs Of Dumping, Bad For Rally? A similar rally took place back in April 2019, which marked the end of the 2018-2019 bear market. But in that rally, Bitcoin managed to rise above all three of the realized prices. If a similar transition is truly taking place in this bear market as well, then the $22,400 level could be the one to watch for next, as a break above it could imply a return towards a bullish regime. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $21,100, up 22% in the last week. BTC continues to move sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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