Bitcoin Slips Under $67,000: Can BTC Rely On This Historical Support Again?

Bitcoin has observed a plunge during the past day, taking the asset’s price under $67,000. Here’s the historical support level that the asset could visit next. Bitcoin Is Now Not Far From The Short-Term Holder Realized Price As analyst James Van Straten pointed out in a post on X, the Realized Price of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders has been going up recently and currently sits around the $64,000 level. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor in the BTC market. This indicator is based on the “Realized Cap” model for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery When the asset’s spot price is greater than the Realized Price, it means the investors are carrying some net unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, the coin’s value under the metric suggests the dominance of losses in the market. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific sector segment is of interest: the Short-Term Holders (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the Bitcoin STHs over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price rapidly climbed during the rally towards the all-time high price (ATH) earlier in the year. This trend naturally makes sense, as the STHs represent the new investors in the market, who would have had to buy at higher prices as the asset climbed up, thus pushing the cohort’s average up. Since BTC’s consolidation phase following the March ATH, the indicator’s uptrend has slowed, but its value is increasing nonetheless. After the latest increase, the metric has approached $64,000. Now, what significance does the Realized Price of the STHs have? Historically, this indicator has taken turns acting as a major support and resistance line for the cryptocurrency. During bullish periods, this metric can facilitate bottom formations for the cryptocurrency, thus keeping it above itself, while bearish trends generally witness the line acting as a barrier preventing the coin from escaping above it. Transitions beyond this level have generally reflected a flip trend for the coin. This apparent pattern has held up likely because the STHs, being the relatively inexperienced hands, can be quite reactive. The cost basis is an important level for any investor, but this cohort, in particular, can be more likely to panic when a retest of their cost basis takes place. When the sentiment in the market is bullish, the STHs could decide to buy more when the price drops to their average cost basis, believing the drawdown to be merely a “dip” opportunity. In bearish phases, though, they may react to such a retest by panic selling instead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Next Top At $89,200, Crypto Analyst Suggests The chart shows that Bitcoin found support around this line during the crash at the end of April/start of May, potentially implying a bullish sentiment has continued to be dominant. With BTC seeing a drop below $67,000 in the past day and the STH Realized Price closing in at $64,000, it will be interesting to see how a potential retest would play out this time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,800, down over 3% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Loses Historical Level, Analyst Says Reclaim And Bounce, Or Die

An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin recently closed below a historically important on-chain level, a failure to reclaim which could spell trouble for BTC. Bitcoin Fell Below Short-Term Holder Cost Basis In Latest Crash In a new post on X, Maartunn discussed BTCs recent close below the realized price of the short-term holders and [...]

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Chainlink Struggles At Key Resistance Level $10 Support Back In Focus

After weeks of consistent buying pressure and bullish sentiment, Chainlink (LINK) is now facing a critical moment. The price failed to reclaim the $18 resistance level and has since dropped more than 16%, showing signs of weakening momentum. This recent rejection has sparked concerns among investors and traders, as downside risk intensifies in the short term. Related Reading: Cardano Whale Activity Spikes 80 Million ADA Added In 48 Hours Top crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared a technical analysis pointing to a potential retracement toward lower demand levels. According to Martinez, the recent failure to break above key resistance may trigger further selling pressure, especially if broader market conditions remain uncertain. He suggests that LINK appears to be losing its bullish structure and could be preparing to revisit lower support levels before any meaningful rebound. Chainlinks current position highlights a shift in sentiment, as bulls struggle to hold key zones. While the broader market remains relatively stable, LINK’s inability to maintain higher levels could signal an early sign of deeper correction if volume and momentum do not pick up. With volatility returning to the altcoin space, the coming days will be decisive for Chainlink. Holding above interim supports will be key if bulls want to regain control and avoid further losses. Chainlink Struggles As Momentum Fades: Downside Risks Grow Chainlink (LINK) is showing signs of exhaustion after weeks of upward movement, now trading under mounting pressure as the market grapples with renewed volatility and global financial uncertainty. Bulls remain active, defending key demand zones and continuing to call for a breakout, but fading momentum and growing fear are starting to weigh on sentiment. The failure to breach the $18 resistance level marked a turning point. Since then, Chainlink has slipped over 16%, losing critical support zones and entering a vulnerable technical position. According to Martinez, this rejection could be the start of a deeper correction. Martinezs analysis suggests that LINK is now poised to revisit the $10 level a psychological and structural support that aligns with historical price behavior. The next few trading sessions will be crucial. If bulls cant reclaim higher levels or at least stabilize price action above $14, the selling pressure could accelerate. Adding to the uncertainty is a broader lack of clarity in global markets, with investors closely watching central banks, inflation data, and geopolitical developments for guidance. While some traders are still positioning for a bounce, the current structure points to caution. Chainlinks performance in the coming days could either confirm a local top or offer a high-risk, high-reward entry point if support holds and momentum returns. Either way, the $10$12 range may soon be tested, and how LINK responds there will define its next major trend. Related Reading: XRP Flashes Bullish Signal Technical Indicator Hints At Imminent Rebound LINK Faces Pullback As Buy Pressure Weakens Chainlink (LINK) is under pressure after failing to hold above the $17.50$18 resistance zone. The daily chart shows a sharp rejection near the 200-day SMA (currently at $17.79), followed by a 16% drop that pushed LINK below the 200-day EMA ($16). This move confirms a breakdown of bullish momentum and highlights growing downside risk as traders reassess short-term expectations. Volume has picked up during the recent pullback, suggesting active profit-taking or renewed selling interest. The current support zone lies around $14.80$15.00, a region previously tested in late April and early May. If bulls fail to hold this level, the next major support rests closer to $13.20, potentially opening the door for a deeper correction toward the $10 markan area cited by analyst Ali Martinez. Related Reading: Ethereum Faces Resistance Against Bitcoin ETH/BTC Bullish Structure In Question To regain momentum, LINK must first reclaim the $16 zone and flip the 200 EMA back into support. A daily close above both the 200 EMA and SMA would shift sentiment and restore the bullish structure. Until then, traders should watch for continuation signals or further weakness, especially if broader market volatility persists. LINK is in a make-or-break phase, with the next few days likely to set the tone for its short-term trajectory. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Ethereum Eyes $2.4K Retest Analyst Sets Key Levels To Watch

After several days of intense buying pressure and strong bullish momentum, Ethereum has finally paused its rally, finding resistance around the $2,740 mark. The move comes after ETH effortlessly cleared key resistance levels at $2,000 and $2,200, marking one of its strongest short-term performances in months. As excitement builds across the broader crypto market, Ethereums next move could define the strength and sustainability of this breakout. Related Reading: $1.2B In Ethereum Withdrawn From CEXs Strong Accumulation Signal With price now stalling, analysts believe a period of consolidation is likelyand perhaps even necessarybefore the next leg higher. Top analyst Daan shared a technical view suggesting that the $2,400 level will be crucial in the coming days. He believes it makes sense to retest that local support, which would provide a healthier structure for further upside. However, Daan also notes a cautionary signal: extremely high levels of Open Interest across the ETH derivatives market. Hes currently avoiding long positions until some of that leverage is flushed out, reducing the risk of a sharper pullback. For now, Ethereum bulls must hold above $2,400 to confirm strength and keep the uptrend intact, while traders await cleaner conditions for potential reentry. Ethereums Surge Faces a Crucial Retest Around $2.4K Ethereum has surged more than 50% since last week, reclaiming momentum after months of heavy selling pressure. ETH is showing sustained strength for the first time since late December, fueling optimism that the broader altcoin market could be next. Many analysts are calling for an altseason, and Ethereums breakout is seen as a potential catalyst for a larger move across altcoins that have severely underperformed in recent years. However, after such a sharp move, a period of consolidation or correction wouldnt be unusualand could even be healthy. According to Daan, the $2,400 level will be a key support zone to watch. He believes it makes sense for price to test this area before further continuation. Daan currently has no interest in entering long positions until some of the billions in Open Interest are flushed from the system. How Ethereum reacts around $2.4K will likely set the tone for the next phase. If ETH sweeps $2.4K and quickly bounces, Daan expects a local range to form between $2.4K and $2.7K. However, if price loses that level decisively, the next major support lies at $2.1K. A slow bleed into that zone could signal weakness, while a quick flush might present a short-lived buying opportunity. Despite short-term risks, Daan notes that even a pullback to $2.1K would still leave ETH up roughly 20% from the prior week. In his view, the larger trading range for now is between $2.1K and $2.8Ka zone that could define Ethereums next major trend if bulls can hold key levels and regain momentum. For now, the rally is alive, but the next test will be critical. Related Reading: Ethereum MVRV Pricing Bands Show Key Resistance Around $3,100 Level Details Price Consolidation Taking Place Amid Optimism Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $2,565, following a sharp retracement from its recent local high near $2,740. After a powerful rally that pushed ETH above both the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA), the price is now consolidating just below the 200-day SMA at $2,702.93. This level has acted as resistance over the last few sessions, capping Ethereums attempt to continue its upward momentum. Volume has declined slightly, reflecting market indecision after last weeks breakout. If bulls can defend the 200-day EMA near $2,437 and maintain higher lows above $2,500, the structure would remain bullish. However, a failure to hold these levels could lead to a deeper pullback, with $2,400 and $2,200 as potential supports. The recent price action suggests Ethereum is forming a short-term range between $2,400 and $2,700, which could persist until a clear breakout above the 200-day SMA. Holding above $2,500 is crucial to maintaining bullish momentum, especially as the altcoin market eyes further gains. Related Reading: XRP Open Interest Surges 41% As Speculation Grows Over $1B Added In Just One Week If ETH can push above $2,700 with strong volume, it would confirm renewed strength and open the path toward the $3,000$3,100 resistance zone. Until then, consolidation and caution dominate the short-term outlook. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin Update: Local Highs and $88K Retest Ahead 5 Key Insights to Stay Informed This Week

Bitcoin Price Hits $88k as Bulls Retest Local High; 5 Key Events This Week The price of Bitcoin surged to $88,000 this week as bullish momentum picked up steam. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts and investors are closely monitoring the market as the digital asset continues to reach new heights. Here are five key events that have impacted [...]

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Bitcoin Retests Resistance: Heres The Level A Break Could Lead To

Data shows Bitcoin is currently retesting a major on-chain resistance level, and a break above which can potentially lead to a surge in its price. Bitcoin Has Major On-Chain Resistance Around $67,000 As pointed out by analyst Ali in a post on X, BTC may be able to see a rise towards the $72,900 level if the asset can break the current on-chain resistance barrier. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern In on-chain analysis, any level’s potential to act as support or resistance is measured using the amount of Bitcoin that was acquired/bought by the investors around said level. The analyst has shared the chart for the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD) indicator from Glassnode, that reveals how the various levels around the current spot value of BTC are looking like right now based on the density of supply that was last bought at them. Looks like there is significant resistance coming up ahead at the $72,900 mark | Source: @ali_charts on X The URPD here is “ATH partitioned,” which means that the price ranges here are defined by dividing the levels between zero and the current all-time high (ATH) into 100 equal partitions. From the chart, it’s visible that the partition around the $66,990 level carries the cost basis of a notable amount of the supply right now (1.3%). This also happens to be the range BTC is retesting at the moment. Generally, the cost basis is a special level for investors, and thus, they tend to be more likely to show some reaction when a retest takes place. If a large number of holders share their cost basis inside the same narrow range, then this reaction may result in a scale that could be relevant for the market. As for what direction this reaction from the holders would be probable to happen depends on the side the retest is happening from. A retest from under (meaning that these holders had been in loss prior to the retest) could lead to a selling reaction in the market. This is because these investors may not want to risk the cryptocurrency declining again in the future, so exiting while they have the opportunity to at their break-even might be tempting. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode As such, retests like these can lead to the asset feeling some degree of resistance. In the current case, the range is notably filled up with coins, so it’s possible that the strength of this resistance would be just as powerful. From the chart, it’s visible that after this range, the asset potentially faces no strong on-chain resistance barriers until the $72,879 level, which hosts the cost basis of about 1.61% of the supply. “If Bitcoin can break past $66,990, it will likely rise toward $72,880!” says Ali. BTC Price Bitcoin has been climbing up in the past day, with its price now reaching the $67,200 level. Should this surge be sustained, the asset would be through the current resistance block. The price of the coin appears to have been going up over the past couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum Is Retesting A 5-Year Long Trendline Massive Rally Incoming?

Ethereum is currently consolidating below the $2,000 mark, trading within a narrow range between $1,800 and $1,900 as market uncertainty persists. Bulls have lost control, and speculation about a potential continuation of the bear trend is growing among analysts and investors. With macroeconomic instability, rising trade war fears, and erratic policy decisions from US President Trump, both crypto and U.S. stock markets remain highly volatile, adding to Ethereums struggles. Related Reading: Solana Holds Bullish Pattern Expert Sets $140 Target To highlight Ethereums fragile position, top analyst Mister Crypto shared a technical analysis revealing that ETH is currently testing a 5-year-long trendline, a crucial level that has historically acted as strong support during major corrections. If Ethereum fails to hold this trendline, the market could see a deeper decline, reinforcing bearish sentiment and potentially pushing ETH toward lower demand zones. On the other hand, if Ethereum holds above this trendline, it could trigger a strong recovery, offering hope for bulls looking for a reversal. Over the coming days, Ethereums reaction at this level will determine its next major move, making this a pivotal moment for the second-largest cryptocurrency. Ethereum Faces Crucial Test as It Trades Below Multi-Year Support Ethereum has been under massive selling pressure, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and trade war fears that have rattled both the crypto and U.S. stock markets. With risk assets struggling to find stability, ETH has lost key price levels and now trades below a critical multi-year support around $2,000, which could flip into strong resistance if bulls fail to reclaim it. Related Reading: 130,000 Ethereum Moved Off Exchanges Bullish Signal? Analysts warn that Ethereum’s downtrend may continue as broader economic conditions show no signs of improvement. Investors remain cautious, with global trade tensions, inflation concerns, and U.S. regulatory uncertainties weighing on market sentiment. However, despite these bearish factors, some experts believe Ethereum could be preparing for a long-term recovery. Mister Crypto’s technical analysis on X highlights that Ethereum is currently testing a 5-year-long support trendline, an even stronger level than the $2,000 demand zone. According to his insights, this trendline has historically held during major corrections and served as a key turning point for bullish reversals. If Ethereum maintains support above this level, it could trigger a significant recovery rally, pushing ETH back above $2,000 and beyond. Over the coming weeks, Ethereums price reaction at this crucial trendline will determine whether a reversal is on the horizon or if the bearish trend will extend further. ETH Bulls And Bears Battle For Control Ethereum is now at a crucial crossroads, with bulls struggling to reclaim the $2,000 mark, while bears fail to push ETH below $1,800. This prolonged consolidation phase has left investors uncertain about the next major move for ETH. For a recovery rally to take shape, bulls must reclaim the $2,300 level, which aligns with the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). Breaking above this level would signal a shift in momentum and pave the way for further upside toward key resistance zones. However, failure to reclaim the $2,000 mark and hold above crucial moving averages could trigger another wave of selling pressure. A decisive drop below $1,800 would put Ethereum in dangerous territory, opening the door for a potential retest of lower demand zones around $1,600-$1,700. Related Reading: Whales Accumulate Over 150 Million XRP In Just 48 Hours Is A Rally Incoming? With macroeconomic uncertainty and market-wide volatility still in play, ETH traders should watch for a breakout or breakdown from the current range, as the next few sessions will determine the short-term trend for Ethereum. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Tether’s Paolo Ardoino says BTC could retest its all-time high amid the banking crisis

Tether’s chief technology officer (CTO) Paolo Ardoino in an interview with CNBC said that Bitcoin could retest its all-time high amid the current banking crisis. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $69,000 on November 10, 2021, before embarking on a bearish trend that saw it test $15,000 towards the end of 2022. Bitcoin is currently …

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Bitcoin retests $22.8k as hashrate hits 300 EH/s | Invezz

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose on Wednesday as the crypto market strengthened following the week’s turmoil amid negative regulatory news and uncertainty across stock markets after Tuesday’s US inflation data. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin climbed to highs of $22,800 across major exchanges, with the coin at 4% higher at around 8:00 am ET. Are you looking ...

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Bitcoin Near Crucial Retest: Which Of These Historical Patterns Will Repeat?

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is near a crucial retest currently that may decide where the cryptocurrency will go next from here. Which Pattern Will Bitcoin Follow Next: 2016 Or 2019? As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC SOPR for short-term holders is approaching the baseline. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors are selling/moving their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the market is realizing some amount of profit with their selling currently. On the other hand, values below this threshold suggest loss taking is the dominant force in the market at the moment. Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to the 1 baseline implies the total amount of profits being realized are exactly canceling out the amount of losses as the market as a whole is neutral. This SOPR is for the entire Bitcoin market, but in the context of the current discussion, the relevant version of the metric is the one for just a single segment of the market: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STH group includes all the investors who purchased their coins less than 155 days ago. This cohort generally includes the weak hands of the market, who may easily react to fluctuations in the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 90-day and 365-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the last few years: Looks like both the metrics have been above the baseline in recent days: Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the 90-day MA of the Bitcoin STH SOPR (colored in yellow) broke out above the 1 baseline back when this rally first started around the beginning of the year. This breakout suggested a shift towards profit selling for these investors, something that has historically been observed in all previous major rallies in the cryptocurrency. With the latest leg in the Bitcoin rally above the $30,000 mark, the 365-day MA of the indicator (highlighted in blue) has also managed to climb up above this mark. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Spikes, Is This Bearish? While this has been happening, though, the 90-day MA has actually been heading down and is now about to cross below the 365-day MA as it approaches the 1 baseline. In the chart, the quant has marked the two previous instances where a trend similar to this had formed for the asset. It looks like back in 2016 when the 90-day MA had retested the 1 mark after a similar structure had taken shape, the metric had found support at the break-even mark. This rebound kept Bitcoin going and the coin eventually built up into a bull market. In 2019, though, the retest of the 90-day MA STH SOPR failed and a bearish trend once again took over the coin. It wouldn’t be until 160 days later that bullish sentiment returned and the rally happened. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Broken This Open Interest Pattern, Quant Explains As the current Bitcoin market looks to be in a similar spot as these two historical occurrences, it’s possible that it may follow the lead of one of these. It now remains to be seen, as to which of these patterns the asset might exhibit this time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $30,300, down 1% in the last week. BTC has surged during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Chainlink Surges 12% To $18: Price Set To Retest $20 Next?

Chainlink has shot up over 12% to break $18 during the past day. A retest of the on-chain resistance wall at $20 could be next. Chainlink Has Outperformed Market With Its 12% Rally The past 24 hours have been green for most of the cryptocurrency sector, but the positive returns have been small for most of the market, with Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, only seeing profits of 1%. Related Reading: BitMEX Whales Buy Bitcoin: What History Says Will Happen Next Chainlink, however, has separated from the crowd during this period, rallying around 12%. The chart below shows how the coin has performed over the last few days. The price of the coin seems to have observed a sharp climb over the past day | Source: LINKUSD on TradingView With this latest surge, Chainlink has surpassed the $18 level for the first time in almost two years. With profits of about 30% over the past week, LINK is by far the best-performing asset among the top 60 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Speaking of the market cap list, LINK has now flipped Tron (TRX) to become the 11th largest asset in the sector following this recent strong performance. The table below shows where LINK stands among its peers in the sector right now. The market cap of the coin appears to be around $10.4 billion at the moment | Source: CoinMarketCap Dogecoin (DOGE) is the next coin above Chainlink now, and if the asset can continue its run, it should be able to flip the meme coin. While there is still some gap between their market caps, it isn’t too big. Whether the coin can further this rally or not, perhaps on-chain data could provide some hints. LINK Has Next Major On-Chain Resistance Wall Around $20 As explained by analyst Ali in a new post on X, LINK has significant on-chain resistance at $20. In on-chain analysis, the strength of a support/resistance level lies in the amount of BTC that the investors bought at it. Below is a chart that shows the distribution of holder cost basis across the various LINK price ranges near the current price of the cryptocurrency. Looks like there is some resistance coming up ahead for the coin | Source: @ali_charts on X When the analyst shared the chart, LINK was trading around $17.85, and the ranges until the $19.49 to $20.03 one weren’t too dense with investors. Chainlink has mowed through some of these weaker price levels since then, and the asset may continue to do so until it strikes the resistance wall around $20. Related Reading: These Are The Four Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch, Reveals Analyst In total, 5,330 addresses bought 8.59 million LINK within this range. Generally, investors become more sensitive when the price retests their cost basis, so they may be prone to making some moves. For investors in loss like those inside this range, such a retest can mean an exit opportunity, as they might be desperate to get their money back. This effect becomes more pronounced as investors share their cost basis inside the same range, so ranges with dense cost basis distribution can be a source of major resistance for the spot price. Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, IntoTheBlock.com

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Multiple Bitcoin death crosses signal potential retest of $92K BTC price support

Bitcoin is facing significant challenges as death crosses accumulate, indicating a potential drop in its price. The death cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average, signaling a bearish trend in the market. The latest death cross on the Bitcoin chart has triggered concerns among investors, leading to a test [...]

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This Bitcoin Metric Is At A Crucial Junction, Will Bulls Find Victory?

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin indicator is currently retesting a crucial level that could decide the direction the market takes from here. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Plunged To A Value Of 1 As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the short-term holders are currently selling at their break-even mark. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR), which tells us whether Bitcoin investors are moving their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder in the market is currently selling their coins at a profit. On the other hand, the indicator having values below this threshold suggests the market as a whole is realizing a net amount of loss. The level at which SOPR becomes exactly equal to one implies that the loss realization is exactly equal to the profit realization right now, and hence, the average investor is just breaking even on their investment. In the context of the current topic, the entire market isn’t of interest; only a segment of it: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs include all BTC investors that bought their coins within the last 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 14-day moving average (MA) Bitcoin SOPR specifically for these STHs over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant Historically, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has followed a curious pattern. During bullish periods, the indicator has generally stayed above the line where the metric’s value becomes 1. This makes sense, as rallies allow the STHs many profit-taking opportunities, so the majority should be selling at some gains. Related Reading: PEPE Unlikely To Be As Big As DOGE & SHIB, Says Santiment What’s actually interesting, though, is that whenever the metric has dropped to the 1 line, it has provided support to the price (and has also made the indicator rebound back above it). Examples of this have been marked with the green arrows in the graph. As already mentioned before, the 1 line signifies the level where the average STH is just breaking even, meaning that they are selling at the price at which they acquired their coins, that is, their cost basis. The reason why this level acts as support during bullish trends is that the investors see their cost basis as a profitable buying opportunity (since they believe the price would go up in the near future). So, a large amount of buying takes place here. Related Reading: Aura Around PEPE Isn’t Good For The Market, Especially Bitcoin – Here’s Why In bear markets, the opposite behavior is seen; the level acts as resistance to the price since selling tends to happen at it. Because of this pattern, the indicator’s behavior about the 1 level can provide hints about whether a bullish or a bearish regime is active currently. Recently, the indicator has once again dipped to this crucial level. If the Bitcoin rally is still on right now, then the Bitcoin STH SOPR should observe a rebound here. This has already happened once during this rally, as the price felt support at this level back in March. If, however, the retest ends up failing, then it may mean that a transition back to a bearish period may have occurred for the cryptocurrency. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,000, down 2% in the last week. Looks like BTC has been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin MVRV At Critical Level: Will A Break Happen?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) is at a critical level currently. Will a bullish breakout take place? Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is Retesting The 1.5 Level Right Now As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC MVRV ratio has been around a critical level recently. The “MVRV ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its realized cap. The “realized cap” here refers to a capitalization model for the asset that assumes that the true value of each coin in the circulating supply is not the current spot price, but the price at which the coin was last transferred on the blockchain. This model aims to find a sort of “real value” for the coin, so its comparison with the market cap in the MVRV ratio can tell us how the current spot price (that is, the market cap) weighs up against this fair value. When the indicator has a value greater than one, it means that the market cap is more than the realized cap right now. In this situation, the investors are holding more value than they put in, so they become more likely to sell and harvest these profits. Thus, this kind of trend can suggest the asset is becoming overpriced and a correction may be on the horizon. On the other hand, low values imply the market cap of the cryptocurrency may be undervalued at the moment as the average investor is holding their coins at a loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the last few years: Looks like the value of the metric has gone up recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio had been below the one mark back during most of the second half of 2022. This isn’t an unusual trend, as bearish periods normally see investors going into deep losses, which naturally results in the indicator’s value plunging. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Tight Range: Will BTC Decompress With A Big Move? What’s interesting, though, is the metric’s interaction with the line where its value becomes 1. While bearish trends last, the level usually provides resistance to the asset. Examples of this happening during the past year’s bear market can be seen in the chart. With the rally this year, however, Bitcoin was able to break past this level, implying that a transition toward a bullish regime had occurred. The indicator briefly dropped to this level in March, but the line provided support to it, confirming that a bullish trend was indeed active. The MVRV ratio has now recently surged towards the 1.5 level, at which the market cap is 50% more than the realized cap. At these values, the asset naturally starts becoming overpriced and the risk of corrections goes up. From the graph, it’s visible that the coin found resistance at this 1.5 level when it was retested back in April. Since surging back toward it recently, the cryptocurrency has been moving sideways around this level so far. Related Reading: Polygon Volume Registers Sharp Increase, What Does It Mean? It now remains to be seen whether the Bitcoin MVRV ratio can break through this level with the current retest, or if it will end up facing another rejection. Naturally, if it’s the former, the rally might be able to continue. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $30,500, down 2% in the last week. BTC's price action continues to be stale | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin Market At Decision Point: Will This On-Chain Retest Be Successful?

On-chain data shows a Bitcoin metric is approaching a crucial retest that can make or break a rally. Will the bulls come out on top? Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Is Nearing 1 Level According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a successful retest here would be constructive for the price of the asset. The indicator of interest here is the “realized profit/loss ratio,” which measures the ratio between the profits and losses that Bitcoin investors throughout the network are realizing right now. The metric works by going through the on-chain history of each coin being sold to see what price it was last acquired at. If this previous price for any coin was less than the BTC value that it’s now being sold/moved at, then the coin’s sale is said to be realizing some amount of profit. Naturally, the opposite case would imply that loss realization is occurring with the coin’s movement. The metric takes the sum of all such profits and losses being harvested in the market and finds the ratio between them. When the value of this ratio is greater than 1, it means that the market as a whole is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values under this threshold imply losses are more dominant in the sector right now. In the context of the current discussion, the realized profit/loss ratio for the entire market is actually not the metric of focus, but the version specifically for the “short-term holders” (STHs) is. The STHs are one of the two major groups in the Bitcoin market and include all the investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Historically Tight Range, Calm Before The Storm? Here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) BTC STH realized profit/loss ratio over the last couple of years: The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: Glassnode on Twitter As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day EMA Bitcoin STH realized profit/loss ratio has been above 1 during the past few months, suggesting that profit realization has been the dominant force. This naturally makes sense, as the rally occurred during this period, which would have made it so that these investors would be in plenty of profits. Recently, however, the metric has been going down as the price has observed a decline. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator is now closing in toward the 1 mark. The 1 line has historically held immense significance for the market, as it serves as the point where the STHs are just breaking even on their selling. During bearish periods, this line has usually provided resistance to the price of Bitcoin, while it has switched to being a support point during bullish regimes. The reason behind this interesting pattern lies in the fact that investors look at their break-even mark very differently between the two types of markets. Related Reading: Chainlink (LINK) Whale Transfers Spike, Bearish Sign? In a bearish environment, investors see the break-even mark as an ideal exiting point, as that way, they can at least avoid getting into losses. Thus, a lot of selling takes place at the level, leading to the price feeling resistance. Similarly, the investors look at the level as a profitable buying opportunity during rallies, so they participate in some buying at it. Obviously, if the current rally has to have any chance at going, this retest of the 1 level would have to be successful. If a breakdown happens here, however, then a bearish regime might return for Bitcoin. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,000, up 1% in the last week. BTC has been moving sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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These Bitcoin Metrics Are At Important Retests, Will Bullish Trend Prevail?

On-chain data shows two Bitcoin indicators are currently retesting levels that have historically been relevant for the market’s course. Bitcoin NUPL For Both Short-Term & Mid-Term Holders Is Neutral Currently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC NUPL has been retesting crucial levels recently. The “Net Unrealized Profit/Loss” (NUPL) is a metric that keeps track of the net amount of profit or loss that investors are holding currently. This indicator works by looking through the on-chain history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous transfer price for any coin was less than the current spot price of Bitcoin, then that particular coin is holding a profit right now. The NUPL counts this profit that the coin is holding in the unrealized profit. Similarly, the loss that underwater coins are holding gets included in the unrealized loss. The metric then takes the difference between these two numbers to find the net profit/loss status of the entire market. In the context of the current discussion, the entire market isn’t of interest, however, only specific sections of it are. In particular, two BTC cohorts called the “short-term holders” (STHs) and the “mid-term holders” (MTHs) are of relevance. The STHs include all investors who bought their coins within the last six months, while the MTHs are those who have been holding their coins since at least six months ago and at most 2 years ago. First, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL specifically for the STHs: Looks like the value of the metric has approached zero recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH NUPL has been positive throughout this rally that first started back in January of this year. Generally, this is the case in bullish trends, as the STHs are those who bought relatively recently, so any price rises immediately reflect on their profit/loss status. What’s more significant, however, is the indicator’s relationship with the zero mark. At this line, the STHs as a whole are neutral, meaning that their unrealized losses equal their unrealized profits. Usually, whenever the metric retests this line from above during bullish trends, it finds support and the price feels a bullish effect. This could be seen working in action during this rally alone, as the rebounds in March and June both occurred when the STH NUPL approached this line. Related Reading: Bitcoin NVT Shows Bearish Crossover, Price Drop Incoming? From the chart, it’s visible that the metric has once again fallen to this line recently. This retest may be quite important, as a plunge below could mean a reversal back toward a bearish regime. In the below graph, it’s also visible that the MTH NUPL is retesting the same line, although this indicator is approaching it from the negative zone. The metric is retesting the break-even line | Source: CryptoQuant The MTHs had been sitting in losses until now, but they are on the verge of transitioning back into profits currently. If the metric can manage to break through the level, then it would be a positive sign for the rally, as the bullish trend has historically continued whenever these investors have come back above water. Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Rebound Anytime Soon? Here’s What On-Chain Data Says The break-even line providing resistance to Bitcoin, however, is also a possibility, in which case the asset would feel a bearish effect. It now remains to be seen how this retest, as well as the one of the STH NUPL, would pan out in the coming days. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,000, down 1% in the last week. BTC continues to move sideways | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Michael Förtsch on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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