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Author: Opeyemi Sule

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders In Extreme Panic And Fear What This Means

It has been an unpredictable few months for the price of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market since the start of the year, and even as far back as the election of Donald Trump for his second term as US president. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is down by a little over 2% in the past month. While the monthly record suggests that the price of BTC had a relatively stable past 30 days, March was far from calm, as prices fell deeply at the beginning before somewhat stabilizing around the middle of the month. This level of chaos explains why a group of Bitcoin investors is approaching the market with extra caution. BTC Short-Term Holders Exiting The Market In Distress? In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, crypto analyst IbrahimCosar revealed a shift in the sentiment of a key group of Bitcoin investors over the past few weeks. According to the trader, BTCs short-term holders (STH) are showing an extreme level of panic and fear in the market. Related Reading: Bitcoins Rise Isnt Random: Analyst Reveals Whats Really Fueling BTC Above $85K This on-chain observation is based on the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) metric, which measures the profitability ratio of spent outputs (held for more than 1 hour but less than 155 days). This indicator offers insight into the profitability of the holdings of short-term investors. The STH-SOPR metric shows if short-term holders are selling at a profit, breakeven, or a loss. A value greater than one means that the short-term investors are selling at a profit, while a value less than one for the metric suggests that most short-term holders are selling at a loss. It is worth noting that when STH-SOPRs value is one, it implies that investors are moving their coins at neither a profit nor a loss. According to recent data from CryptoQuant, the STH-SOPR metric has been below the 1 threshold, indicating that short-term holders are offloading their assets at a loss. As highlighted in red in the chart below, this trend of selling at a loss has persisted since the end of January 2025. Historically, this significant level of loss realization is correlated with periods of extreme panic and fear amongst the Bitcoin investors. Periods of extreme panic have been associated with market bottoms, as it means that weak hands (impulsive traders) exit the market and allow long-term investors to accumulate. Ultimately, this means that short-term investors selling their coins could be good for the premier cryptocurrency in the long term. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $83,200, reflecting an over 2% increase in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price Eyes 20% Move With Golden Pocket Appearance Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

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Why This Bitcoin Bearish Divergence Could Spell Doom For BTC Rally

Author: Hououin Kyouma

United Kingdom

Source: NewsBTC

Dec 15, 2022 04:45

Why This Bitcoin Bearish Divergence Could Spell Doom For BTC Rally

A quant has explained how this bearish divergence in Bitcoin on-chain data can lead to a short-term correction in the price. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Been Slowing Down Despite Price Going Up As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, a gap has been forming in the purchasing power of short-term holders and the BTC price. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR), which tells us whether investors in the Bitcoin market are selling their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the overall market is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values below the threshold suggest the average holder is seeing some loss at the moment. Naturally, the indicator at exactly equal to 1 implies the investors are just breaking-even on their investment. Related Reading: Ethereum Active Addresses At Highest Since May 2021, Good News For ETH? The “short-term holder” (STH) group is a Bitcoin cohort that includes all investors who bought their coins less than 155 days ago. The STH SOPR thus measures the profit ratio of selling being done by these holders. To properly assess the behavior of this group, the analyst is using a “rate of change” (ROC) oscillator for the indicator. Here is a chart comparing this momentum oscillator with the BTC price over the last few months: Looks like the metric has been going down in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As the above graph shows, the ROC of the Bitcoin STH SOPR had been in deep red when the FTX crash took place, suggesting that these investors capitulated during it and realized a large amount of loss. However, as the BTC price has slowly improved from the lows, the ROC has become green. This implies that the STHs who bought during the lows have been selling for profits, leading to a rising SOPR. Bitcoin has continued to see an uptrend recently, but strangely, the STH SOPR ROC has been dropping off. This could be a sign that not many STHs were able to buy during these lows, hinting that their purchasing power is low at the moment. If they had been buying through this rally, they would have continued to harvest more and more profits as the price goes up, but that has clearly not been the case. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crystal Ball – What Happens To BTC After Christmas 2022? Such a divergence also formed in the relief rally seen earlier in the bear market, as the quant has marked in the chart. “Last time, this situation led to a bearish correction,” notes the analyst. “If this alignment repeats, then this time, Bitcoin may correct to the $16,500-$17,000 range.” BTC surges up | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $17,700, up 5% in the last week.

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Bitcoin Declines Slightly As Short-Term Holders Take Profits

Author: Hououin Kyouma

United Kingdom

Source: NewsBTC

Oct 29, 2022 08:25

Bitcoin Declines Slightly As Short-Term Holders Take Profits

After surging to as high as $20.9k, Bitcoin has today observed a slight decline back into the low $20k levels as a result of profit taking from short-term holders. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Been Elevated Over The Past Two Days As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the short-term holders seem to be using the latest price rise for profit taking. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR), which tells us whether the average investor is selling Bitcoin at a profit or at a loss right now. When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the overall market is realizing some amount of profit currently. On the other hand, values below the threshold suggest the holders as a whole are selling at a loss Naturally, values of the SOPR exactly equal to one suggest that the investors are just breaking even on their selling at the moment. Related Reading: Why Crypto Market Fear Mirrors Lull In Volatility Now, there is a cohort in the Bitcoin market called the “short-term holders” (STHs), which includes all investors who have been holding their coins since less than 155 days ago. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC SOPR specifically for this holder group over the last couple of weeks: The value of the metric seems to have spiked up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has been elevated above the 1 level during the last two days or so. This rise has coincided with the BTC price finally surging up after moving sideways around $19k for a long while. This suggests that these investors are using this opportunity to harvest some profits. Related Reading: The Inverted Bitcoin Chart Bears Don’t Wanna See | BTCUSD Analysis October 27, 2022 Such profit-taking is generally bearish for the price of the crypto, and as the chart displays, there were three instances of this kind of trend during the past two weeks. All of those profit realization sprees from the STHs resulted in the price going back down after a short-term rise. This time as well the BTC price has gone down from its high of $20.9k to as low as below $20.1k. before retracing back up some to the current level. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $20.5k, up 8% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 7% in value. Below is a chart that shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. Looks like the value of the crypto has gone down over the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin Plunge Under $28,000 Only Temporary? This Metric Suggests So

Author: Hououin Kyouma

United Kingdom

Source: NewsBTC

May 09, 2023 04:45

Bitcoin Plunge Under $28,000 Only Temporary? This Metric Suggests So

Bitcoin has now plunged under the $28,000 level, but the data of an on-chain indicator may suggest that this drop could only be temporary. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Dropped Just Under The 1 Level As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the current values of the metric have generally served as ideal buying opportunities during rallies in the past. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio,” which tells us whether the average Bitcoin investor is selling their coins at a profit or at a loss right now. When this indicator has a value greater than 1, it means the profits being realized in the market are currently greater than the losses. On the other hand, values below this threshold suggest a dominance of loss-taking from the holders. The SOPR being exactly equal to 1 naturally corresponds to a neutral state, where the average holder is just breaking even on their investment, as profits are equal to losses here. While the SOPR is generally defined for the entire Bitcoin market, it can also be applied to specific segments of the market. In the context of the current discussion, the “short-term holder” (STH) segment is of interest. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Drop Further? Whales Show Signs Of Dumping The STHs make up a cohort that includes all investors who have been holding onto their coins since less than 155 days ago. The STHs who manage to hold beyond this threshold enter into the “long-term holder” (LTH) group. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have seen some decline recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH SOPR was below the 1 mark during last year’s bear market, suggesting that the average STH had been selling at a loss in this period. This is the typical behavior observed in bearish periods, as the constant price decline makes investors panic and sell at losses. An interesting pattern that is seen during such periods is that the line where SOPR attains a value of 1 starts providing resistance to the asset. The reason this happens is that at this level, the STHs are selling at the price they bought in. During bear markets, they usually go into losses, so whenever they find the opportunity to sell to recoup their original investment, they jump right on it. This is why the level provides resistance and forces the indicator to stay under it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run In Jeopardy As Parabolic SAR Flips Bearish On Daily Chart The opposite behavior is seen in price rallies, however, as holders start looking at the break-even level as a profitable entry point, which leads to a large amount of buying taking place at the level. This assures that the indicator quickly returns above the 1 level if it falls below it. From the chart, it’s visible that the rally this year has also seen a similar trend so far, as the Bitcoin STH SOPR has maintained above 1 (besides a temporary drop in March, which ended up resulting in a sharp surge in the price). In the last few days, the indicator has again plunged to this level of much historical significance as the price has slipped under $28,000. If the past pattern is anything to go by, a rebound could become more probable for the BTC price here. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,600, down 1% in the last week. Looks like BTC has sharply dropped in value during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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