Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator flips bullish as price holds $60K
The Bitcoin bull-bear market indicator has turned green once more after Bitcoin's drop below $50,000 triggered its first bearish signal since January 2023.
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The Bitcoin bull-bear market indicator has turned green once more after Bitcoin's drop below $50,000 triggered its first bearish signal since January 2023.
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The Bitcoin price made a strong comeback on Friday after witnessing a significant amount of bearish pressure throughout the past week. On Wednesday, May 1, the premier cryptocurrency fell below the $60,000 mark for the first time in almost two months. On Friday, May 3, the price of BTC recovered above the $60,000 level, going as high as $63,000 in the past day. However, the question is – can the Bitcoin price enjoy a sustained rally following this latest resurgence? How Long Will The BTC Price Rally Last? In a recent post on the X platform, Santiment pointed to a shift in investors position and sentiment on the Bitcoin price following the recent surge above $62,000. According to the on-chain analytics site, traders on the Binance platform are going from liquidated shorts to longs after the latest price increase. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Stands Strong: Over 650K Wallet Addresses Still Profitable Amid Recent Price Drop While this shift in sentiment might signal renewed optimism in the premier cryptocurrency, Santiment sounded a warning bell for enthusiasts watching the Bitcoin price and looking to get into the market. The blockchain firm said in its post: For the rally to continue, we don’t want to see FOMO rising too much higher than what it appears to be now. Source: Santiment/X FOMO, or fear of missing out, is a phenomenon where investors hastily purchase in-demand assets out of fear of missing out on potential gains. While it can drive the asset to a higher price in the short term, excessive FOMO often results in unsustainable bullish trends and subsequent downturns. What’s more, crypto prices tend to move in the opposite direction of the crowds expectations. Hence, if the majority of traders are betting on the Bitcoin price to rise, there is a great likelihood that the cryptocurrencys value will experience a drop. Behind The Bitcoin Price Surge As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at around $62,871, reflecting a substantial 6% increase in the last 24 hours. Although the catalyst for this latest Bitcoin rally remains unclear, on-chain data shows that recent whale activity might have triggered the bullish momentum. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Turns Bullish On Bitcoin, Predicts Quantitative Easing Will Begin Soon In a recent post on X, CryptoQuant CEO and founder Ki Young Ju revealed that Bitcoin whales acquired 47,000 BTC in a single day. Ju also said that while this class of investors might have included ETF-associated addresses, the recent spike in balances for whale addresses is not ETF-related. #Bitcoin whales accumulated 47K $BTC in the past 24 hours. We’re entering a new era. pic.twitter.com/SXgzToN8GU Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 3, 2024 Bitcoin price fails to hold above $63,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart from TradingView Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Melika Trader has warned of a volume drop that could trigger a 60% Bitcoin price crash. The analyst provided an in-depth analysis of what this price crash could mean and if it would mark the end of the bull run. How The Bitcoin Price Could Crash By 60% And Drop To $49,000 In a TradingView post, Melika Trader revealed how the Bitcoin price could crash by 60% and drop to $49,000. The analyst noted that BTC is hanging just above a critical support zone, an area he claimed many traders recognize as the most important support level from a volume perspective on Binance. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Has Entered The Ideal Buy Zone, Heres Why His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could suffer a 60% drop once it loses the former trend line at $75,000. The flagship crypto is also in danger, having lost the critical support at around $83,000. This drop to $49,000 would bring BTC back toward the high-volume range near $30,000. This provides an ultra-bearish outlook for the Bitcoin price. However, Melika Trader raised a twist, stating that only 20% of traders might actually lose. He noted that, according to Binances volume profile data, the majority of buying activity and position accumulation happened below $35,000. The analyst further mentioned that most long-term holders and smart money entered during the 2022/2023 accumulation range. The Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) is also said to show significant support below the current Bitcoin price, with minimal trading volume at higher levels. Melika Trader remarked that only a minority of traders bought BTC during its late-stage bull run above $70,000. Meanwhile, the majority of investors are still in profit or break-even, even if the Bitcoin price retraces back to its base. As such, most traders are safe, as BTC risks a drop to as low as $49,000. Why BTCs Bull Market Is Over CryptoQuants CEO, Ki Young Ju, recently asserted that BTCs bull market is over amid the Bitcoin price decline. He alluded to the Realized Cap metric to explain his confidence that the bull run is over. The CryptoQuant CEO noted that if Realized Cap is growing but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in but prices arent rising. Related Reading: Why Buying Bitcoin Now Is Better Than Later As BTC Price Consolidates Within Falling Wedge Ki Young Ju noted that this is a clear bearish signal, and this is what is currently happening. Capital is entering the market right now, but the Bitcoin price isnt responding, which he claims is typical of a bear market. The CryptoQuant CEO explained that even large purchases like MicroStrategys arent pushing prices up because there is too much sell pressure at the moment. Ki Young Ju again affirmed that current data points to the Bitcoin price being in a bear market. He noted that sell pressure could ease anytime but warned that historically, real reversals take at least six months. As such, the CryptoQuant CEO believes a short-term rally seems unlikely. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $77,000, down over 7% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
In the midst of the dramatic changes that have occurred in the cryptocurrency space after the Bitcoin halving event, Bitfinex provides a perceptive analysis that reassures investors that the market dynamics of BTC have remained positive in the post-halving period. Bitfinex examines the on-chain data and finds encouraging signs for Bitcoin in spite of the United States economy’s current state of uncertainty in its most recent Alpha report, which was released on April 22. Bitcoin Market Dynamics Remains Bullish According to the Hong Kong-based crypto platform, exchange withdrawals of Bitcoin are currently at levels not seen since January 2023. This simply indicates that a lot of investors are putting their assets in cold storage in expectation of price rises. Related Reading: Bitcoin Halving: Anticipating Price Impact, Miner Challenges, And Long-Term Outlook Also, the exchange noted that long-term investors’ aggressive selling has not yet caused the usual pre-halving price decline, which suggests that new market participants are absorbing the selling pressure quite well, highlighting the tenacity of the present market structure of Bitcoin. The Bitfinex Alpha report revealed that the average daily net inflow from spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) is $150 million. Given the ETFs’ inflows far exceeding the $30 and $40 million daily issuance rate of BTC following the halving, this significant supply and demand imbalance could encourage further price appreciation. Bitfinex further claims the massive purchases of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have dominated the entire year’s market narrative, may decline. However, recent ETF outflows have shown that ETF demand may be starting to stabilize. It is important to note that the recently concluded Halving cut down miners’ reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As a result, miners are now modifying their operating tactics in order to sustain their activities against the decline in reward following the Halving. Thus, the amount of Bitcoin that miners are sending to exchanges has significantly decreased, which may indicate that they are selling ahead of time or collateralizing their holdings to upgrade infrastructure. Consequently, this could possibly lead to a gradual increase in selling pressure rather than a sudden drop in value at the Halving. New BTC Whales Surpassed Old Whales Since the conclusion of the fourth Halving, on-chain data shows a significant rise in new Bitcoin whales. CryptoQuant Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Ki Young Ju, reported the development, noting that the initial investment made by the new whales in Bitcoin is nearly twice that of the old whales combined. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Predicts A Narrative Shift Post-Bitcoin Halving According to the data, the total holding by these new whales, which are short-term holders, is valued at $110.6 billion. Meanwhile, the old whales, which are long-term holders, own a whopping $67 billion worth of BTC. This change in whale demographics may impact Bitcoin’s future course and the dynamics of the cryptocurrency landscape as a whole. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Quinten recently revealed that Bitcoin has entered oversold levels. However, analyst Dr. Cat has warned that, contrary to public opinion, this development is bearish, not bullish, for the flagship crypto. In an X post, Dr. Cat stated that Bitcoin entering oversold levels is super-bearish and overbought levels are super-bullish. He explained that for the oscillator to reach oversold values, it means that the price action has been extremely bearish, indicating why investors are selling their holdings. Why Bitcoin Entering Oversold Levels Is Bearish The crypto analyst further remarked that Oscillators are range-bound indicators, so they cant go beyond 0 and 100, as they are limited by their mathematical formulas. However, he added that the Bitcoin price can go lower or higher. Dr. Cat then alluded to Bitcoins bull markets, noting that all of them are in overbought territory on the weekly chart. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Break $125,000 But Sell Everything In October, Analyst Warns The analyst stated that if an investor buys an oversold condition on a lower timeframe when Bitcoins higher timeframe is bullish, this is a good move. However, he remarked that whoever advises buying a weekly oversold chart based on the claim that it is bullish because it is oversold has no idea what they are talking about. He remarked that many altcoins are oversold on the higher timeframe and can remain oversold as they approach zero, where the analyst claims they are eventually headed. Dr. Cat also explained that in a bull market, oversold conditions on the daily chart may mark higher lows on the weekly or monthly chart. However, in a bear market, oversold conditions may persist or just lead to some consolidation before more downside. Dr. Cat then alluded to Quintens chart, which he said showed what daily oversold conditions led to one year earlier in different broader market conditions. The analyst cautioned that he wasnt discussing whether Bitcoin is in a bull or bear market or where it is headed, but simply clarifying the misconception about oversold and overbought RSI. BTCs Supply Overwhelming Demand At The Moment In an X post, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju revealed that Bitcoins supply is currently greater than its demand at the moment, providing a bearish outlook for the flagship crypto. This supports the idea of BTC being in oversold conditions right now, with holders selling their coins rather than buying. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forms This Bullish Pennant On Daily Chart That Could Trigger Rise To $137,000 Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently revealed that whales have been taking profits during the recent Bitcoin rally, offloading over 29,000 BTC since April 9. It is worth mentioning that Ki Young Ju recently asserted that Bitcoins bull market is over, noting that the flagship crypto is witnessing significant selling pressure. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $84,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
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In line with the decline in Bitcoins price, the spot Bitcoin ETF market has appeared rather gloomy in recent days. According to data from analytics firm BitMEX Research, these BTC ETFs have recorded a negative netflow for the last four trading sessions. This situation has been marked by large levels of Grayscales GBTC outflows and the record low inflows for the other ETFs, mainly the market leaders BlackRocks IBIT and Fidelitys FBTC. However, amidst these persistent declining netflows, Ki Young Ju, a prominent analyst and Chief Executive Officer at Cryptoquant, has predicted a possible resurgence in the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern Analyst Pinpoints $56,000 Level As Critical To Bitcoin ETF Recovery In a post on X on March 22, Ki Young Ju shared that a rise in spot Bitcoin ETFs netflows could occur even as the BTC price decline continues. Using data from the historical netflow trends, the analyst noted that demand for Bitcoin ETFs usually kicks in when the cryptocurrency traces to certain support levels. Young Ju stated that, in particular, new BTC whales, especially ETF buyers, have shown to have a $56,000 on-chain cost basis. This suggests that the new significant holders of Bitcoin, particularly those invested in ETFs, usually purchased Bitcoin at an average price of $56,000. Following this trend, the crypto quant boss believes the spot Bitcoin ETF market could experience massive inflows if BTC reached the specified price level. #Bitcoin spot ETF netflows are slowing. Demand may rebound if the $BTC price approaches critical support levels. New whales, mainly ETF buyers, have a $56K on-chain cost basis. Corrections typically entail a max drawdown of around 30% in bull markets, with a max pain of $51K. pic.twitter.com/vZCG4F0Gh5 Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 22, 2024 For now, Bitcoins price has oscillated between $62,000 and $68,000, as seen in the last week. However, Young Ju believes that such a descent is quite feasible as price corrections usually see a maximum decline of 30%. Using BTC’s most recent high of $73,750, the analyst predicts the asset price could still trade as low as $51,000. Related Reading: Stablecoins Steal The Spotlight: $150 Billion Market Cap, $122 Billion Daily Trades BTC Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin continues to trade at $64,065.74, representing a decline of 3.73% and 7.17% in the last one and seven days. Meanwhile, the assets daily trading volume is down 3.53% and valued at $39.62 billion. Following historical trends of the bull cycle, it is possible that BTC may have reached its price peak leading up to the halving event in April. If that is the case, Bitcoin may likely not return to previous high price levels soon and could experience further price drops in the coming weeks. BTC trading at $64,315.00 on the hourly chart | Source: BTCUSDT chart on Tradingview Featured image from Euronews, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price could be headed for more pain, as a crypto analyst has identified a new bear market indicator that suggests a crash to $40,000 is imminent. The analyst has predicted when this deep price decline is set to occur, warning investors to remain cautious or risk selling at a loss. Xanrox, a crypto analyst on TradingView, shared a detailed price analysis of Bitcoin on March 17, predicting that the pioneer cryptocurrency is set to crash to $40,000 by 2026. The analyst revealed that Bitcoin follows a predictable cycle pattern tied to its halving events, which occur every four years. During these years, the market alternates between bull markets, where prices skyrocket, and bear markets, marked by severe corrections. Bear Market Indicator Predicts Next Bitcoin Price Crash Historically, bull markets last between 742 and 1,065 days, which is about 2-3 years. Conversely, bear markets last between 364 and 413 daysapproximately one year. Notably, every bull run for each cycle has been weaker than the previous one due to Bitcoins rapidly growing market capitalization. Related Reading: Crypto Pundit Arthur Hayes Says Be Patient After Bitcoins 36% Crash, Reveals Possible Bottom In every cycle, Bitcoins price crashes after a bull market, ultimately experiencing a decline between 77% to 86%. Reflecting on this recurring trend, Xanrox forecasts a major Bitcoin price correction, albeit a weaker one than those of previous cycles. The analyst believes that the cryptocurrency will crash 65% to $40,000, citing its significantly larger market capitalization and rapidly growing institutional adoption. He shared a price chart that highlights the various halving cycles and the magnitude of each bull market rally and bear market crash since Bitcoins inception. He pointed out that statistically, predicting Bitcoins movements with a simple chart has always been accurate, suggesting that his 65% crash prediction was inevitable. Currently, Bitcoins considerable market capitalization of $1.63 trillion makes it unrealistic to achieve the extreme growth needed to reach a target of $300,000, $500,000, or even $1 million, as some moon analysts predict. Xanrox suggests that 2025 may be a bearish year, with the next Bitcoin bull run set to begin in 2026, after the bear market. CryptoQuant Says BTC Bull Cycle Is Over Sharing a similar bearish sentiment about the current market, CryptoQuants founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Ki Young Ju, has announced the unfortunate end of the Bitcoin bull cycle. Ju revealed that the market should expect 6 – 12 months of choppy price action, indicating the start of the bear market. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin RSI Dominance Needs To Crash To This Level For The Bull Run To Resume He also highlights that every on-chain metric for Bitcoin is signaling a bear market, with fresh liquidity depleting while new whales are selling BTC at a significantly lower price. Moreover, Bitcoin is trading at $82,549, marking an over 20% price crash since its all-time high of more than $109,000 this year. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
Ju cited fresh liquidity drying up and new whales selling at lower prices as key indicators of a bear market.
Crypto analyst The Cryptagon has raised the possibility of the Ethereum price mirroring Bitcoins 2018 to 2021 cycle, which he indicated was bullish ETH. This development comes amid record selling among ETH investors, which continues to exert downward pressure on the crypto. Ethereum Could Be Mirroring Bitcoins 2018-2021 Cycle In a TradingView post, the Cryptagon stated that Ethereum has been repeating Bitcoins 2018 to 2021 cycle very closely. He remarked that ETHs long-term holders may remain bullish just by looking at this BTC cycle, seeing as ETH could achieve a similar end result like the flagship witnessed in that cycle. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Publishes Insanely Bullish Report For Ethereum, Here Are The Facts The analyst admitted that Ethereum has been under heavy pressure since early December last year and almost touched the 12-month falling support this week. However, despite this development, the Cryptagon suggested that this is not the time to be bearish on ETH, as it could still reach new highs as it mirrors Bitcoins 2021 cycle. He noted that in the 2021 cycle, a rebound on the falling support caused a massive breakout above the falling resistance and the Bitcoin price rallied to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. In line with this, the Cryptagon predicted that Ethereum could at least reach $8,000 in this market cycle as it repeats a similar price action. This bullish outlook for Ethereum comes amid record selling, which threatens any bullish reversal for ETH. In an X post, Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju revealed that Ethereum has faced record active selling over the past three months. This has contributed to ETHs underperformance, with the altcoin being outperformed by other major altcoins like XRP and Solana over this period. While XRP touched its current all-time high (ATH) and SOL hit a new ATH, ETH has yet to come anywhere close to its current ATH. The Most Important Price Level For ETH At The Moment In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez, revealed that $1,887 is the most important support level for Ethereum at the moment. At this level, investors bought 1.63 million ETH. A drop below this level could lead to another massive crash for the second-largest crypto by market cap, with many of these investors possibly selling off their coins in order to cut their losses. Related Reading: Analyst Says Youll Regret Not Buying Ethereum At These Prices, Heres Where Its Headed Martinez has already raised the possibility of Ethereum crashing to as low as $800. He noted that the $4,000 price level had been holding a strong horizontal resistance trendline. However, ETH recently broke out of this trendline, which has significantly increased the probability of a 70% price drop to this $800 target. At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $1,893, up over 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
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