Arthur Hayes: Treasury Moves to Fuel Bitcoin Prices $200,000 Rally
On April 21, 2025, while U.S. stocks hemorrhaged $1.5 trillion, Bitcoin quietly climbed to $88,524, shrugging off a dip to $74,500.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes sees this as no fluke. In his essay Ski Cut, published in April 2025, he ties Bitcoins momentum to U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve policies, injecting liquidity into markets.
Hayes predicts Bitcoin could soar past $110,000, even hitting $200,000. Heres why his analysis matters.
Liquidity Influx: Treasurys Tactical Shift
Hayes points to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellens strategy, detailed in his Ski Cut essay, as a key driver. Yellen has ramped up short-term Treasury bill issuance over long-term bonds.
This move pulls liquidity from the Feds reverse repo facility into broader markets. Hayes argues it mimics quantitative easing (QE) without the label. The result? Markets rallied as investors adjusted to the shift, according to Hayes analysis.
In the third quarter of 2022, Bitcoin languished below $16,000. Some feared a drop under $10,000. Hayes compares that to recent jitters when Bitcoin fell from $110,000 to $74,500. He insists investors underestimated liquiditys impact thenand now.
The Federal Reserve also plays a role. In March 2025, the Fed slowed its quantitative tightening (QT) program, reducing the pace of balance sheet contraction.
Hayes calls this a liquidity booster. He also notes potential Fed moves, like exempting banks Treasury holdings from the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) or a QT Twist.
This would reinvest the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into Treasury bonds, keeping the Feds balance sheet steady.
These policies, Hayes argues, create a favorable environment for Bitcoin price growth. Liquidity injections lift dollar-priced assets like BTC, especially amid market volatility.
Bitcoin as Digital Gold
Hayes sees Bitcoin diverging from tech stocks and aligning with gold. On April 21, 2025, gold surged past $3,400 and then $3,500, according to TradingView data. Bitcoin followed suit, rising 1.16% to $88,524.
Hayes firm, Maelstrom, bought more BTC during the $74,500 dip, betting on its role as a hedge against budget pressures and U.S.-China trade tensions.
Bitcoins market cap helped push the total crypto valuation from $2.67 trillion to $2.73 trillion that day, a $60 billion gain, according to TradingView, April 22, 2025. Hayes believes Bitcoins dominance will grow before capital rotates to altcoins.
Hayes predicts a pattern. Once Bitcoin breaks $110,000, altcoins could rally. Historical trends show capital flowing from BTC to smaller assets after major price moves. This rotation, he says, hinges on Bitcoins liquidity-driven rally.
BTC Price Rockets Past $94,000 in Breakout Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) hit $94,270 after a powerful breakout on the daily chart. The price smashed through the $88,000 resistance, ending weeks of flat trading.
A strong bullish candle closed above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling robust momentum. The 20-day simple moving average, now trending upward, supports this shift.
This marks Bitcoins first clear bullish surge since its post-halving consolidation started in April 2025. High trading volume, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and strong technical indicators across timeframes support the rally.
If $92,500 holds as support, Bitcoin could target $96,000 today. Staying above this level may pave the way for a $100,000 test. The trend looks firmly bullish, with pullbacks offering entry points for buyers.
Read more: https://zycrypto.com/arthur-hayes-treasury-moves-to-fuel-bitcoin-prices-200000-rally/
Text source: ZyCrypto
