Bitcoin Could to Outperform Gold, According to JPMorgan
Analysts now say the two assets are locked in a zero-sum game, with capital flowing from one to the other rather than rising in tandem.
Between mid-February and mid-April, gold was rising at the expense of BTC. Over the past three weeks, weve seen the opposite Bitcoin gaining at the expense of gold, wrote Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director at JPMorgan, in a note shared with The Block.
Gold Drops, Bitcoin Climbs
Since peaking on April 22, gold has fallen nearly 8%, while BTC has surged 18% over the same period. This divergence is also reflected in investor behavior:
- Gold ETFs have seen outflows.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs and crypto funds have recorded net inflows.
- Futures markets show rising Bitcoin positions and declining gold exposure.
- Earlier this year, the trend was reversed, with gold climbing as BTC lagged alongside other risk assets. But in recent weeks, that dynamic has flipped decisively.
Crypto-Specific Catalysts Driving Bitcoins Momentum
While some of Bitcoins rise stems from investors rotating out of gold, JPMorgan analysts emphasized that crypto-native catalysts are also fueling its outperformance.
We expect the year-to-date zero-sum game between gold and Bitcoin to extend through the remainder of the year, the report said. However, we are biased toward BTC upside in H2, driven by crypto-specific factors.
These may include:
- Continued institutional adoption through ETFs
- A shift in monetary policy expectations
- Ongoing geopolitical and regulatory clarity around digital assets
As both assets continue to serve as inflation and fiat-debasement hedges, JPMorgans outlook suggests BTC may take the lead especially if crypto-specific momentum continues to build.
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