Bitcoin Defies Historical Trends: Factors Point to Positive September
Bitcoin invstors trditionlly brc thmslvs for Sptmbr, month historiclly known for ngtiv rturns for th cryptocurrncy. Howvr, svrl fctors suggst tht Sptmbr 2024 could dvit from this trnd.
A significnt fctor potntilly mitigting pric dclin in Sptmbr is th clring of mjor slling prssurs tht impctd th mrkt in July nd August 2024.
Firstly, th Grmn govrnmnts sl of nrly ll its confisctd Bitcoins from th Movi2k sizur (totlling 49,859 BTC) hs lrgly concludd. This mjor sll-off contributd to th summr pric dclin, but with most of ths coins now off th mrkt, th prssur from this sourc hs significntly diminishd.
Similrly, Mt. Gox, th dfunct xchng, hs compltd most of its crditor rpymnts in Bitcoin. With only third of th initil holdings rmining for distribution, th bulk of ths rpymnts (nd ssocitd slling prssur) is likly ovr. Additionlly, Gnsis Trdings dbt rstructuring, which involvd lrg BTC sl in August, is unlikly to b rptd in Sptmbr, offring furthr mrkt rlif.
Govrnmnts holding confisctd Bitcoin, lik th US nd UK, lso pos potntil thrt. Howvr, rcnt ctions suggst msurd pproch. Th US govrnmnts OTC sls hv hd miniml impct on mrkt prics, whil th UK hs not touchd its sizd funds sinc 2021.
Bitcoins Strengthened Holding Pattern
Anothr positiv indictor is th strong position of long-trm holdrs. CryptoQunt dt rvls 262,000 BTC incrs in thir holdings ovr th pst month, bringing th totl to 75% of th circulting supply. Additionlly, mny nonymous wllts holding substntil mounts of BTC rmin inctiv, signifying lck of nr-trm slling intnt. This strong holding pttrn suggsts miniml downwrd prssur from long-trm holdrs in Sptmbr.
Rnwd buying forc from Bitcoin ETFs could lso contribut to positiv Sptmbr. Aftr slight ngtiv flow in August, historicl pttrns suggst potntil rbound for ths invstmnt vhicls. Whil consrvtiv stimt for Sptmbrs nt inflow might b btwn $500 million nd $1.5 billion, this prdiction is spcultiv.
Svrl upcoming vnts could furthr support Bitcoins pric in Sptmbr. Th Fdrl Rsrvs nticiptd intrst rt cut could mk trditionl invstmnts lss ttrctiv, potntilly driving invstors towrds Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs.
Additionlly, FTXs upcoming rpymnt of $16 billion to crditors could provid significnt cpitl injction into th crypto mrkt, potntilly coinciding with th lowr intrst rt nvironmnt.
Th incrsing biprtisn support for fvorbl crypto rgultions in th US is nothr fctor to considr. Both lding politicl cndidts r showing mor crypto-frindly stnc, which could crt mor positiv rgultory nvironmnt nd furthr bolstr Bitcoins pric.
whil Sptmbr hs historiclly bn chllnging month for Bitcoin, conflunc of fctors suggsts potntil dvition from th norm in 2024. Th clring of mjor slling prssurs, th strngth of long-trm holdrs, th possibility of rnwd buying forc from ETFs, nd fvorbl socioconomic conditions could ll contribut to positiv Sptmbr for Bitcoin.
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Text source: TronWeekly
