Bitcoin may remain in a range for a few days
Bitcoin has started the second quarter on a cautious note as both the bulls and the bears try to gain an early advantage. However, Coinglass data shows that history favours the bulls in April because, in the past nine years, Bitcoin has suffered a monthly loss in April only on three occasions, with the maximum monthly drop being 3.46% in 2014. On the other hand, the largest monthly gain in April was 50.01% in 2013. Even if this early period is ignored, Bitcoin recorded monthly gains of more than 34% in 2019 and 2020.
Another milestone of importance was that the 19th millionth Bitcoin was mined on April 1, leaving only 2 million more Bitcoin to be mined. It is expected that the last Bitcoin will be mined in the year 2140. This is likely to shift investors’ focus on the scarcity of the leading cryptocurrency.
While Bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency, some analysts are projecting greater value in Ether. Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, recently highlighted in a blog post that Ether’s upgrade to proof-of-stake could increase its institutional appeal as it will act as an infinite duration bond. This makes Hayes more bullish on Ether than Bitcoin. He expects Ether to rally above $10,000 by the end of the year.
“My crypto portfolio at the beginning of 2022 was 50% Bitcoin and 50% Ether. I have conviction in the cheapness of ETH relative to the rest of the crypto firmament. Therefore, my target allocation is 25% Bitcoin and 75% Ether”, Hayes added.
In another sign that altcoins could be attracting greater investor interest, the combined open interest on altcoins derivatives surpassed Bitcoin’s open interest, according to Coinalyze data. The firm’s founder Gabriel Dodan told Cointelegraph that this “could mean altseason, money flows into alts now.”
Could Bitcoin and the altcoins extend their up-move? What do the charts project? Read our analysis of the major cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USD Market Analysis
Bitcoin turned down from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 29, indicating that bears continue to defend the level aggressively.
The sellers tried to sink and sustain the price below the breakout level of $45,855 but the bulls had other plans. They purchased the dip on April 1 as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.
The buyers have managed to keep the BTC/USD pair above the critical level of $45,855 but have not been able to push the price above the 200-day SMA. This indicates that the pair may spend some more time inside a tight range between $44,250 and $48,250.
Contrary to this assumption, if buyers propel the price above the 200-day SMA, the up-move could resume. The pair could then rally to $52,100 where the bears are expected to mount a strong defence. Aggressive traders may consider long positions on a close above the 200-day SMA.
On the downside, a break and close below $44,000 could attract profit-booking by the short-term traders. That may pull the price to the 50-day SMA.
ETH/USD Market Analysis
Ether turned down from the 200-day SMA on March 29 but the bulls did not allow the price to sustain below the breakout level of $3,284.75. The strong rebound on April 1 indicates that bulls are actively buying the dips.
The ETH/USD pair broke and closed above the 200-day SMA on April 3 but the bulls have not been able to build upon this momentum. This suggests that bears are trying to pull the price back below the 200-day SMA and trap the aggressive buyers.
If the price turns down from the current level and plummets below $3,211.66, the short-term sentiment may turn negative as traders who may have bought at lower levels could book profits. That could pull the price down to the 50-day SMA.
A strong rebound off this level will suggest that bulls continue to accumulate at lower levels. That could keep the pair range-bound between the moving averages for a few days.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level or once again rebounds off $3,284.75, it will increase the prospects of a rally to the psychological level of $4,000.
BNB/USD Market Analysis
Binance Coin turned down from the overhead resistance at $450 on March 31 but the bulls aggressively purchased the dip, resulting in a sharp rebound on April 1.
The buyers will now try to push the price to the 200-day SMA, where they are likely to encounter strong resistance from the bears. However, if bulls do not cede ground to the bears, it will enhance the prospects of a break above the 200-day SMA.
The BNB/USD pair could then pick up momentum and rally toward the psychological level at $500.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below $430, it could attract profit-booking from the short-term traders. The pair could then slide to the 50-day SMA.
XRP/USD Market Analysis
XRP turned down from the 200-day SMA on March 28 and dropped to the 50-day SMA on March 31. The bulls purchased this dip but the rebound lacks conviction. This suggests that the XRP/USD pair may remain stuck between the moving averages.
The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to the midpoint, which also suggests a consolidation in the near term.
If bears pull the price below the 50-day SMA, the selling could intensify and the pair could drop to the support line. A break and close below this level could tilt the advantage in favour of the bears.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price rises from the current level and breaks above the 200-day SMA, the bullish momentum could pick up. The pair could then rally to the psychological level at $1.
LUNA/USD Market Analysis
We mentioned in our previous analysis that the path of least resistance on Terra’s LUNA token was to the upside and a rally to $115 and then to $125 was possible.
The LUNA/USD pair turned down from $111.50 on March 30 but the bears could not sustain the price below the breakout level at $103.50. The bulls purchased the dip on April 1 and pushed the price above $111.50 on April 2.
This indicated the resumption of the uptrend. The pair could now face resistance at $125 but if bulls overcome this barrier, the next stop could be $150. However, we give a low probability of such a rally occurring in the short term.
If the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance, the bears will again try to pull the pair below $103.50. If they succeed, the next stop could be the uptrend line. A break and close below this level could intensify selling and sink the pair to the 50-day SMA.
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