Bitcoin Price – Is the $2 million bet on BTC a sign of a local top?
The banking crisis spread from the United States to Europe last week. The problem started after Credit Suisse’s biggest investor, the Saudi National Bank said that it will not be able to add to its existing investments in the Swiss Bank due to regulatory concerns. That started a downward spiral in Credit Suisse, which ended with the rescue takeover of the 167-year-old bank by UBS over the weekend.
The urgent deal was brokered by the Swiss national bank to avoid a contagion when markets opened on March 20 and to shore confidence in the Swiss banking system. However, not everybody is happy with the deal. The Swiss regulator FINMA said that Credit Suisse’s additional tier-one bonds will be written to zero. That meant a $17 billion loss for Credit Suisse’s bondholders.
The turmoil in the current banking system has again ignited interest in an alternative system and that could be one of the reasons for the strong showing of Bitcoin in the past few days. Bitcoin’s dominance which started the year at 40% has soared to 46.5%, according to coinmarketcap data. This shows that Bitcoin is leading the crypto recovery from the front.
After the events of the past few days, some expect the Federal Reserve to pause its aggressive pace of rate hikes. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a no rate hike for the March 22 meeting is at 26% while the remaining 74% anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike. Bitcoin is likely to remain volatile over the next few days.
A few analysts believe that the banking crisis will lead to hyperinflation in the US while others do not support this view. This has resulted in a $2 million bet between former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan and pseudonymous Twitter user James Medlock and one more person. Srinivasan will win $2 million if Bitcoin reaches $1 million by June 17 but if the rally fails to happen, Medlock and the other person will be richer by $1 million each.
Is it time to book profits in Bitcoin and altcoins or could the recovery continue? Let’s study the charts to find out.
BTC/USD Market Analysis
The banking crisis spread from the United States to Europe last week. The problem started after Credit Suisse’s biggest investor, the Saudi National Bank said that it will not be able to add to its existing investments in the Swiss Bank due to regulatory concerns. That started a downward spiral in Credit Suisse, which ended with the rescue takeover of the 167-year-old bank by UBS over the weekend.
The urgent deal was brokered by the Swiss national bank to avoid a contagion when markets opened on March 20 and to shore confidence in the Swiss banking system. However, not everybody is happy with the deal. The Swiss regulator FINMA said that Credit Suisse’s additional tier-one bonds will be written to zero. That meant a $17 billion loss for Credit Suisse’s bondholders.
The turmoil in the current banking system has again ignited interest in an alternative system and that could be one of the reasons for the strong showing of Bitcoin in the past few days. Bitcoin’s dominance which started the year at 40% has soared to 46.5%, according to coinmarketcap data. This shows that Bitcoin is leading the crypto recovery from the front.
After the events of the past few days, some expect the Federal Reserve to pause its aggressive pace of rate hikes. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a no rate hike for the March 22 meeting is at 26% while the remaining 74% anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike. Bitcoin is likely to remain volatile over the next few days.
A few analysts believe that the banking crisis will lead to hyperinflation in the US while others do not support this view. This has resulted in a $2 million bet between former Coinbase chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan and pseudonymous Twitter user James Medlock and one more person. Srinivasan will win $2 million if Bitcoin reaches $1 million by June 17 but if the rally fails to happen, Medlock and the other person will be richer by $1 million each.
Is it time to book profits in Bitcoin and altcoins or could the recovery continue? Let’s study the charts to find out.
ETH/USD Market Analysis
Ether completed an inverse H&S pattern after bulls propelled the price above the $1,700 to $1,742 resistance zone on March 17.
However, the bulls could not sustain the momentum at higher levels. This suggests that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
The price has dropped back to the $1,742 to $1,700 zone, which is now likely to act as support. If the price rebounds off this zone with strength, it will increase the likelihood of a rally to $2,000 and subsequently to $2,200.
The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate a slight edge to the bulls.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price plunges below the moving averages. Such a move could trap the aggressive bulls who may rush to cover their long positions. That could result in a drop to $1,462.
BNB/USD Market Analysis
Ether completed an inverse H&S pattern after bulls propelled the price above the $1,700 to $1,742 resistance zone on March 17.
However, the bulls could not sustain the momentum at higher levels. This suggests that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
The price has dropped back to the $1,742 to $1,700 zone, which is now likely to act as support. If the price rebounds off this zone with strength, it will increase the likelihood of a rally to $2,000 and subsequently to $2,200.
The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate a slight edge to the bulls.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price plunges below the moving averages. Such a move could trap the aggressive bulls who may rush to cover their long positions. That could result in a drop to $1,462.
XRP/USD Market Analysis
Ether completed an inverse H&S pattern after bulls propelled the price above the $1,700 to $1,742 resistance zone on March 17.
However, the bulls could not sustain the momentum at higher levels. This suggests that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
The price has dropped back to the $1,742 to $1,700 zone, which is now likely to act as support. If the price rebounds off this zone with strength, it will increase the likelihood of a rally to $2,000 and subsequently to $2,200.
The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory indicate a slight edge to the bulls.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price plunges below the moving averages. Such a move could trap the aggressive bulls who may rush to cover their long positions. That could result in a drop to $1,462.
ADA/USD Market Analysis
We said in the previous analysis that the bears will aggressively defend the moving averages and they did just that. The recovery stalled at the 50-day simple moving average on March 14.
Since then, the price has been trading near the 20-day EMA. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand.
This tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If buyers thrust the price above the 50-day SMA, the ADA/USD pair could attempt a rally to $0.42.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and plummets below $0.30, the selling could intensify and the pair may nosedive to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.27.
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