Bitcoin Shows Strength as Traditional Markets Stumble, Says Bitwise CIO
In a note to clients on Tuesday, Hougan highlighted how Bitcoin has remained nearly flat over the past 30 days despite an intense wave of macroeconomic pressure. Weve had absolutely massive forces buffeting the crypto market on all sides from the U.S. establishing strategic reserve to President Trump enacting tariffs on the entire world and weve gone precisely sideways, Hougan said. He argues that this behavior shows Bitcoin is itching to move higher if macro obstacles would just get out of the way.
Bitcoins Stability in Historical Context
What stands out to Hougan is how BTC is behaving very differently from previous market corrections. Traditionally seen as a highly volatile risk asset, Bitcoin has historically dropped more sharply than stocks when markets turned sour.
In 2022, the S&P 500 dropped 24.5%, while Bitcoin plunged 58.3%. During the COVID crash of 2020, the S&P lost 33.8% and BTC followed with a 38.1% drop. Even in the late 2018 U.S.China trade war downturn, the S&P slid 19.4% while Bitcoin crashed 37.2%.
By contrast, in the current correction, both the S&P and Bitcoin are down roughly 12%. That parity is unprecedented, Hougan says and may mark the beginning of a fundamental shift.
Bitcoins Evolving Role
Hougan believes that BTC is maturing into a new asset class one that may be starting to behave more like gold. In past cycles, Bitcoin was treated almost entirely as a high-beta speculative asset, and it typically underperformed when equities suffered.
But as more corporations and even governments accumulate Bitcoin with some now exploring BTC for strategic reserves the asset is beginning to look more like a macro hedge than a pure speculative tool.
Theres no guarantee this relationship will hold, or that the remarkable strength weve seen out of Bitcoin lasts forever, Hougan noted. But the hedge-asset narrative is gaining traction and thats a big deal.
Confidence is Growing
Hougan doesnt claim Bitcoin is now immune to volatility or downturns, and he acknowledges that gold has outperformed BTC during the current pullback. Still, the fact that BTC is staying above $80,000 while global markets shake is, to him, a powerful signal.
The world is unraveling, and Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, Hougan wrote. If that doesnt give you confidence in its staying power, I dont know what will.
As the broader market seeks safety and the crypto space continues to mature, BTC may be carving out a more stable and central role in the global financial ecosystem one correction at a time.
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