Bitcoin Volatility To Peak By November 8 As Trump Trade Intensifies Report
According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin (BTC) volatility is set to intensify over the next week. A potent mix of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors has significantly influenced the flagship cryptos performance, with anticipation for the outcome of the US election and Q4s close setting a potential target of $80,000 by year-end.
Bitcoin Volatility About To Reach Its Peak
Crypto exchange Bitfinexs recent report shared that Bitcoins price could hit $80,000 by the end of the year due to a convergence of geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors, seasonality, and the increasing influence of the Trump Trade.
The report noted that, historically, global macroeconomic trends and geopolitics events influenced BTCs price. As a result, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has seen its price movements driven by the anticipated US Presidential elections.
The potential outcome of the elections, scheduled for next week, has affected Bitcoins performance throughout the year. Both presidential candidates have acknowledged the crypto industry, with the Republican candidate Donald Trump becoming the sectors champion after fully embracing Bitcoin and crypto.
Trumps pro-crypto stance increased the correlation between the Republican candidates winning odds and Bitcoins trajectory. Moreover, the Trump Trade narrative reflects the markets view of how BTC will fare dependent on the outcome of the election.
Per the report, this narrative has fueled Bitcoin volatility, with the flagship crypto seeing sharp intra-week corrections before rebounding. Last week, BTC saw a 6.2% pullback toward the $65,000 support zone before reclaiming the $68,000 mark again.
Bitfinex analysts consider that this pullback might be the first of several whipsaw price movements ahead of the elections, affecting BTCs short-term price as speculation and volatility increase.
Additionally, option premiums and estimated daily volatility for the US stock market and Bitcoin are projected to rise significantly next week. The report noted that BTC volatility will peak between November 6 and November 8, when the Election results are expected to be delivered.
Reportedly, the highest implied volatility (IV) is for the November 8 strike price reaching up to over 100 vol for strike prices over $100,000 for BTC.
BTC Poised To Hit $80,000 In Late December
The report noted that Bitcoin has shown strength despite the increasing volatility. The flagship crypto has remained resilient and held its ground compared to the September lows, surging around 30% from last months drop.
Additionally, BTC closed September, which has historically been a challenging month for the cryptocurrency, with a 7.29% increase, the highest closing for the month on record. The crypto exchanges report predicted that Octobers close could be less impressive due to the volatility.
Nonetheless, Bitfinex analysts suggested that Q4s historically bullish seasonality will still favor a positive rally for BTC. Market positioning shows that end-of-year options have seen a considerable rise in call open interest over the last few weeks.
BTC is expected to continue experiencing higher-than-average volatility and potentially see deep corrections in the coming days. But the market seems poised for a post-election surge above Marchs $73,666 all-time high (ATH).
Lastly, call options with a December 27 expiry and an $80,000 strike price have seen a steady build-up, suggesting that this target could be in reach by year-end. As of this writing, BTC is trading at $71,197, a $3.4% increase in the daily timeframe.
Source: NewsBTC.com
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Text source: Crypto Breaking News
