China FUD Isn’t Working Anymore, But It Also Kind Of Is.
Need to drop the price of Bitcoin? The formula is simple: float a story.
That’s it. Just do that. You’re good. Honestly, it doesn’t have to be anything new, even. Just recycle a tired old trope.
Maybe something about a decrepit investment guru who thinks Bitcoin gave his bodyguard Havana Syndrome? Or, how about Hank Scorpio says Bitcoin uses more energy than his weather machine?
Either or works fine. Just don’t overthink it.
That is, unless you have the biggest chunk of September expirations about to expire. In that case, those garden variety stories just won’t cut it.
So, what will? China FUD, obvs.
Can’t argue with China FUD’s effectiveness historically. Not to mention, it’s not as simple as replacing China with another country. India FUD just isn’t the same. Same with Russia FUD. If you want FUD, and you want it done right, you gotta go with China.
Funny thing is, the well appears to be going dry.
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Bitcoin drop after latest round of FUD. Credit: CoinGecko.com
Sure, the price dropped during the latest round on September 24th, going from $45k USD, to $41k USD. But, that pales in comparison to previous drops.
Case in point: back in June when China FUD was still relatively fresh — thanks to the Bitcoin mining ban — Bitcoin fell repeatedly on news of China related FUD. Bitcoin eventually fell as low as $28k on some exchanges by July 19th.
June FUD v. September FUD. Credit: CoinGecko.com
As the charts demonstrate, this time around the market is steadily improving on the news. But they could have gotten it even cheaper back in July.
The diminishing returns probably have something to do with the fact that, if you’ve been around crypto long enough, you are amused by the news of China banning crypto. Sure, your portfolio is on fire, but you have the learned experience to know that the dip is temporary. That, and the memes keep you laughing until your out of the red.
But what about those who haven’t been around that long or even around at all?
A friend of mine messaged me out of nowhere a couple of weeks ago. He asked about China banning crypto.
I was surprised because he doesn’t actually care about crypto. Not that he’s a no-coiner — he has enough invested to say he has some “skin” in the game. He’s just a normal person with a wife, a child, and a mortgage. So, following the trials and tribulations of internet money isn’t high on his priority list.
So, when he asked me if he should take his money out of the market, I thought it was a fair question. After all, he doesn’t see the memes or get his news from Cryptosrus.com.
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I explained how China already banned crypto in 2017. So the headlines you’re reading are just exaggerating what actually is happening. Which is, China adding provisions like limiting OTC trading for institutional investors. I also clarified that the provisions were already made public back in June and this most recent news was just about making said provisions “official” official.
What talking to him made me realize is that the latest rounds of China FUD may not be aimed at the cynical longtime investor. It’s hard to say exactly what effect it had. But a look at Google Trends says that interest isn’t that strong at the moment.
Since September 24th, Google trends are relatively stable, having dropped only a tad of late.
Bitcoin Google Trends Last 30 days. Credit: Google.com
But, looking at a year-long timeframe, interest in crypto is down. At least, Google search-wise.
Year-long Bitcoin Google Search Trends. Credit: Google.com
Who knows if this is because of China banning crypto twice this cycle, or if it’s because prices aren’t reaching all-time highs like they were earlier in the year.
Though it’s unclear if it has had any effect on peripheral investors like my friend, but regardless, I don’t think it’s anything to be concerned about.
Next time around, even those with little skin in the game will know to laugh.
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Text source: CryptosRus
