Crypto Market Struggles but Hints at Late-2025 Rebound, According to Coinbase
On April 9, the market bottomed out at just $906.9 billion.
In addition, funding for crypto startups has plunged by over 50% since the boom years of 2021-2022. Coinbase attributes this downturn to macroeconomic stress, including rising trade tariffs and global monetary tightening.
David Duong, Coinbases Head of Research, these trends may signal the early stages of a new crypto winter. He pointed to waning investor sentiment and shrinking venture capital activity as major warning signs.
Bitcoin Stays Steady, But Broader Market Weakens
While altcoins have taken a significant hit, Bitcoin has shown relative stability. Still, even Bitcoin recently dropped below its 200-day moving averagea key technical signal of long-term market weakness.
Coinbases COIN50 index, which tracks top altcoins excluding Bitcoin, also fell below its 200-day average. This suggests that broad market softness may continue in the near term.
Sectors like meme coins, decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), and AI-based tokens have been especially volatile. These niche areas are now viewed as major drivers of market unpredictability.
Cautious Optimism for a Q3 Crypto Recovery
Despite current setbacks, Coinbase sees potential for recovery. The report projects that stabilization could occur by late Q2, with a rebound possible in Q3 2025.
However, Coinbase also warns that traditional bear market definitions may no longer apply in crypto. The firm recommends using advanced indicatorssuch as risk-adjusted returns and moving averagesto better understand market behavior.
Duong emphasized that Bitcoins role as a store of value makes it less effective as a broader market barometer. As the crypto ecosystem grows more complex, investors may need new tools and strategies.
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