Goldman Sachs Scraps Recession Warning After Surprise Tariff Delay from Trump
The investment bank had earlier flagged a 65% chance of a downturn within the next year, only to reverse course within hours.
On Wednesday, Goldmans chief economist Jan Hatzius and his team shifted to a recession baseline after new country-specific tariffs took effect. But less than an hour after that call, Trump posted on Truth Social that he was hitting pause on a broad set of reciprocal tariffsexcluding Chinafor 90 days, limiting new import duties to a 10% minimum.
Markets responded immediately, with stocks climbing on hopes of reduced trade tensions. By 2:10 p.m. in New York, Goldman reversed its stance, citing the White Houses new tone.
The firm clarified that while the 10% baseline and existing tariffs remain, the temporary halt on additional measures means the economic impact could closely mirror their prior, non-recessionary expectations.
The episode highlights the volatile nature of U.S. trade policy and its outsized influence on economic outlooks. For Goldman, what began as a warning of imminent economic slowdown became a case study in rapid recalibration.
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