More Pain For BTC Incoming? Miners Havent Capitulated Yet
There has been increased speculation over a Bitcoin miner capitulation as hash rate increases slow down, operational costs increase, and the asset price continues to fall.
Analyst James Check assessed miner-side sell pressure to determine the severity of the miner selloff in a video on June 21.
Miners selling after a halving event and the slashing of their block subsidy is quite normal, he said.
Ive seen a few folks speculating as to whether #Bitcoin miners are capitulating and ssuppressing the price.
So I ran the numbers, and analysed both current, and ancient miner sell side pressure.
Now live for @_checkonchain subscribers.https://t.co/BqEd6tkokG
_Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) June 21, 2024
Bitcoin Miners Selling
Check analyzed the Puell multiple, which is calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins by the 365-day moving average of daily issuance value, to determine that miners may not be at an extreme level of stress, but theyre not having a great time either.
If the market declines further from here they would probably enter capitulation, he said before adding, right now they are just teetering on the edge.
He also identified a hash ribbon inversion, which happens when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate crosses below the 60-day moving average, signaling a period of difficulty when weaker miners have to turn off non-profitable rigs.
Moreover, the overall hash rate decline has been just 4%, which isnt enormous and is smaller than during previous periods of miner stress.
Miners are likely to be distributing some of their treasury, but it may not be a complete and total fire sale, meaning that they might be just treading water.
This doesnt feel like a real painful bear market capitulation, he concluded.
In a post on X on June 21, fellow analyst Willy Woo commented that bitcoin will recover when weak miners die and hash rate recovers.
This one is for the record books as its taking a lot of time for miner capitulation post-halving, he added before stating that ordinal inscriptions were probably boosting profits.
Ill break it down in simple terms.
When does #Bitcoin recover? Its when weak miners die and hash rate recovers.
This one is for the record books as its taking a lot of time for miner capitulation post-halving.
Probably can thank ordinal inscriptions boosting profits. pic.twitter.com/19MB0b8mHO
Willy Woo (@woonomic) June 20, 2024
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin fell to a five-week low of $63,550 on June 21 but had recovered to reclaim $64,000 during Asian trading on Saturday.
Analyst Don Alt said that markets were at a do-or-die level on the weekly timeframe before reiterating his stance: I really dont like the $60k range low for another test.
If this level is broken, BTC could fall to the next support level, which is $52,000, he said. This would push miners into capitulation, inducing further selling pressure.
At a do-or-die weekly level here
As I stated before I really dont like the $60k range low for another test
This one is better, untested supportIf it breaks I think well go to the next support indicated, if it holds new ATHs are likely pic.twitter.com/ROZ1oQZ001
DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) June 21, 2024
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