The Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Employment Data
The USD/JPY and USD/CAD currency pairs are showing an upward trend, supported by the strengthening US dollar, which is backed by a number of factors. At yesterday's meeting, the Bank of Japan kept the key interest rate unchanged, disappointing "yen bulls" who had hoped for signals of a possible tightening of monetary policy. This decision by the Japanese regulator contributed to the weakening of the yen, causing the USD/JPY pair to update local highs, approaching key resistance levels.
The USD/CAD pair continues to trade near local lows, holding above support around 1.3780, indicating stabilisation in demand for the dollar. An additional factor is the weak performance of oil prices, which remain in a sideways range, limiting the potential for strengthening the Canadian dollar.
Today, investors' attention is focused on the publication of the Non-Farm Payrolls report a key employment indicator in the US. The consensus forecast expects job growth in April to be between 135,000 and 145,000, which is significantly lower than the March figure of 228,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, while the average hourly earnings growth is forecast to be 0.3% month-on-month. However, deviations from the forecast should be taken into account.
Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the US dollar, as it would reduce the likelihood of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The emerging uncertainty and speculative sentiment ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release are contributing to heightened trader activity and could lead to false breakouts and mixed price "spikes."
USD/JPY
Technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests potential growth of the pair towards 146.80-146.30, within the framework of previously formed reversal patterns such as the "piercing candle" and "bullish harami." A rebound from these or current levels could lead to a decline towards 145.00-144.00.
The following events could influence the pricing of USD/JPY:
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US unemployment rate;
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US average hourly earnings;
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Change in US non-farm payrolls.
USD/CAD
For the second consecutive week, buyers of the USD/CAD pair are preventing the price from falling further near 1.3800-1.3770. According to technical analysis, the USD/CAD pair is in sideways movement within the range of 1.39001.3870. If the price consolidates above 1.3900, it may test the 1.4000 level. A move below 1.3780 could trigger the resumption of a downward momentum towards 1.3200-1.3100.
The following events could influence the direction of USD/CAD:
- Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US industrial orders;
- Today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions on CAD.
Read more: https://fxopen.com/blog/en/ru-the-dollar-strengthens-ahead-of-employment-data/
Text source: Forex Trading Blog
