Loading
Welcome at World Crypto Global. This portal is packed with useful content and resources to built out your own crypto skills. WorldCrypto is a site member of Gabriel Vega Network.
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could witness a drop to the $40,600 level based on a pattern forming in its 2-month price chart. Bitcoin Has Seen A TD Sequential Sell Signal On Its 2-Month Price In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about a Tom Demark (TD) Sequential signal that [...]
The post Bitcoin Could Drop To $40,600 If This Happens, Crypto Analyst Says appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
The Head of Research at the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained why Bitcoin may be at risk of seeing a further drawdown. Bitcoin Is Still On Verge Of Bear Market In This Indicator In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. The “Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator” from CryptoQuant is an indicator based on the P&L Index. The P&L Index combines a few popular BTC metrics related to profit and loss, so it sums up the market balance in one value. This indicator can ascertain whether the asset is going through a bullish or bearish period by comparing it against its 365-day moving average (MA). Related Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause? When the cryptocurrency breaks above its 365-day MA, it can be assumed to be inside a bull market. Similarly, falling under this MA implies a transition toward a bear market. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, the actual metric of focus here, exists to make this pattern easier to follow; it keeps track of the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator over the past couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle indicator had reached extreme values during the price all-time high (ATH) earlier in the year (colored in red). At these levels, the P&L Index has quite the gap over its 365-day MA, so the cryptocurrency’s bull rally has become overheated. The graph shows that the metric also gave this signal on a few other occasions during the past two years, and each time, the asset’s price reached the top. However, these previous tops weren’t enough to hold the market back in the long term, as the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator continued to maintain inside the bull territory (shaded in orange), where the P&L Index is above its 365-day MA. Related Reading: This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom However, bull market momentum has finally shown signs of running out, with the indicator even briefly plunging into the bear territory (light blue) during the recent price crash. While the metric has recovered back into the bull region with the surge that BTC’s price has observed, it’s still very close to the neutral mark, meaning it can potentially sink back into the bearish zone shortly. Based on this trend, Moreno notes that BTC could still risk seeing a further correction. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen its recovery stall recently, as its price is still trading around the $58,500 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
An on-chain analyst has explained signals in several metrics to see if Bitcoin is in a bearish phase. These Bitcoin Indicators Could Be To Follow For Bear Market Signals In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate replied to a user asking about an on-chain metric indicating when it’s time to turn bearish on cryptocurrency. Checkmate has shared two indicators: the Short-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Momentum and the Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio Momentum. “Short-Term Holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days, meaning that both of these metrics are only for the recent buyers in the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause? First, the “Realized Profit/Loss Momentum” measures, as its name suggests, the momentum in the ratio of the profit and loss that the STHs are realizing through their selling. Below is the chart for the indicator posted by the analyst. According to the analyst, it is time to be bearish when the oscillator on the bottom of this chart turns red (corresponding to negative momentum in the STH Realized Profit/Loss). The graph shows that this oscillator assumed negative values soon after the price set its new all-time high (ATH) and has since remained in the region. And indeed, while the indicator has seen these values, Bitcoin has been going through a rough phase. The STH MVRV Ratio Momentum’s second indicator works similarly and keeps track of the distance between the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for this cohort and its 155-day moving average (MA). The MVRV Ratio is a popular indicator that tells us how the value held by the investors (the market cap) compares against what they used to purchase their coins (the Realized Cap). In other words, the metric provides information about the unrealized profit/loss of the holders. Thus, whereas the Realized Profit/Loss keeps track of the net profit/loss the investors are harvesting through their selling, this metric tells us about the profit/loss they have yet to take. Related Reading: This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom Here is the data for the momentum indicator for the MVRV Ratio specifically for the STHs: According to the analyst, just like with the first indicator, this one also gives a bearish signal when the momentum turns red. As the chart shows, the STH MVRV Ratio has been under its 155-day MA for the same period as the bearish momentum in the Realized Profit/Loss, thus providing confluence to the signal. BTC Price Bitcoin had pushed towards $62,000 earlier in the week, but the asset has since slipped up as it’s now back at $57,800. Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin whale entities have sold approximately $588 million in the cryptocurrency during the past week. Bitcoin Whales Have Made Large Selling Moves Recently As pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez in a new post on X, the BTC whales have sold around 10,000 BTC over the last seven days. The indicator of relevance here is the “Supply Distribution” from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, which tells us about the total amount of Bitcoin that a given wallet group currently holds. Related Reading: Only 66% Of Ethereum Holders In Profit Despite 21% Price Jump The addresses or investors are divided into these cohorts based on the number of tokens that they are carrying in their balance right now. A holder with 5 BTC, for instance, is put inside the 1 to 10 coins group. In the context of the current topic, the whale cohort is of interest, which typically includes the addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 coins. At the current exchange rate, this range converts to $58.8 million at the lower end and $588 million at the upper one. Clearly, the investors belonging to the group would be among the largest in the market, so the cohort can be considered to have some influence. As such, the behavior of the whales can be worth keeping an eye on. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Supply Distribution for this Bitcoin group over the past few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply held by the whales has observed a significant decline recently. More specifically, the investors belonging to the cohort have removed a combined 10,000 BTC from their wallets during this selloff, worth about $588 million right now. From the chart, it’s visible that the sharpest selling came during the crash that BTC saw earlier, but these whales have also offloaded significant amounts in the recovery rally that has occurred over the last few days. So far, the Supply Distribution of the cohort has shown no signs of a reversal, so it’s possible that the whales are still in net selling mode. Naturally, this could slow down the asset’s recovery efforts. Nothing is set in stone, though, so the indicator could be used to monitor the coming days to see which direction these humongous investors really take. A net accumulation spree would suggest a renewal of confidence among the large hands and could pave the way for a further rise in the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Again Show Extreme Fear As BTC Slips To $59,000 In some other news, BTC has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern recently and is closing in on its apex, as the analyst has explained in another X post. “Bitcoin is showing a symmetrical triangle on the lower time frames,” notes Martinez. “A sustained close outside the $59,000 – $59,530 range could trigger a 4.80% move for BTC.” BTC Price Bitcoin has struggled to put together bullish momentum in the last couple of days as its price has slumped to $58,800. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, charts from TradingView.com
According to this metric, the on-chain analytics firm Santiment has revealed Shiba Inu has been underbought recently, while Bitcoin is overbought. MVRV Z-Score Suggests Shiba Inu Has Been Undervalued Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has discussed how some of the top cryptocurrencies are looking like right now on their MVRV Z-Score. The “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) refers to a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the market cap and realized cap for any given asset. The realized cap here is a capitalization model that calculates the total valuation of the cryptocurrency by assuming that the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the price at which said coin was last transacted on the blockchain. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Surges 18%, But Watch Out For Crowd FOMO As the previous transaction of any coin was the last time it changed hands, the price at its time would denote its cost basis. Thus, the realized cap is a sum of the cost basis of all tokens in the circulating supply. Put another way, this model measures the total capital the investors used to purchase the asset’s supply. The market cap, in contrast, keeps track of the value these investors hold. As such, the MVRV, which compares these two metrics, tells us about the profit/loss situation of the investors as a whole. In the context of the current topic, the actual metric of interest is the “MVRV Z-score.” This indicator takes the difference between the market cap and the realized cap and divides it by the standard deviation of the market cap over the asset’s entire history. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in this indicator for various coins in the sector: Based on the MVRV Z-Score, Santiment has defined three zones that relate to how far from its fair value the asset is. The chart shows that Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Uniswap (UNI) have had the indicator at -1.55 and -1.96 recently, putting these assets inside the ‘underbought’ territory. At these MVRV Z-Score values, the market cap is significantly lesser than the realized cap, meaning investors are widely lost. Generally, profit holders are a more likely source of selling pressure in the market, so when there are few of them left, price corrections can become less probable. Related Reading: Retail Losing Interest In Bitcoin? Volume Plunges 30% This is why assets are considered undervalued when the indicator drops below the -1 level for them. Due to a similar reasoning, values above 1 correlate to the coin being overvalued. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Toncoin (TON) have recently been inside this latter territory, suggesting that their prices could be in danger of seeing bearish action. Shiba Inu and Uniswap, on the other hand, could be better set up for a price surge. SHIB Price At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading around $0.0000171, up 2% over the past week. Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021. Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been [...]
The post Bitcoin Slips Under $64,000: Heres Where The Next Support Is appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
Data shows that traders on social media have been calling to buy during the latest Bitcoin dip below $66,000, a sign that FOMO is active in the market. Bitcoin Investors Are Displaying FOMO After The Recent Decline As the analytics firm Santiment pointed out in a new post on X, the recent drawdown in the [...]
The post Bitcoin FOMO: Social Media Users Calling To Buy Sub-$66,000 Dip appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross still has a high value, a sign that may be bearish for BTC. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Still Near Historical Top Zone In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the recent trend in the NVT Golden Cross for BTC and its [...]
The post Bitcoin Not Out Of Danger Yet, NVT Golden Cross Warns appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
Data shows that Bitcoin sentiment has cooled off to neutral from greed following the asset’s latest plunge to the $57,000 level. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Returned To Neutral Levels The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that shows the average sentiment among investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market. This index estimates sentiment by considering five factors: volatility, trading volume, social media data, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $92,190: Crypto Analyst Reveals Path To ATH Target The metric uses a scale that runs from zero to 100 to represent this average sentiment. All values under 46 suggest that investors are fearful, while those above 54 imply a greedy market. The zone between these two cutoffs naturally corresponds to the territory of neutral mentality. Now, here is what the Bitcoin sentiment looks like right now, according to the Fear & Greed Index: The value of the metric appears to be 54 at the moment | Source: Alternative As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is at a value of 54, implying that investors share a neutral sentiment currently. However, the neutrality is only just, as the metric is right at the boundary of the greed region. This is a significant departure from yesterday’s sentiment: 67. The chart below shows how the indicator’s value has changed recently. The trend in the Fear & Greed Index over the past year | Source: Alternative As the graph shows, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has been declining recently. For most of February and March, as well as the first half of April, the indicator was in or near a special zone called extreme greed. The market assumes this sentiment at values above 75. As the asset price struggled recently, the mentality cooled off from this extreme zone and entered the normal greed region. With the latest crash in BTC, the index has seen a sharp plunge, now exiting out of greed altogether. Historically, cryptocurrency has tended to move against the majority’s expectations. The stronger this expectation, the higher the probability of such a contrary move. This expectation is considered the strongest in extreme sentiment zones, as well as extreme fear and greed. As such, major bottoms and tops have often occurred in these territories. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance: Traders Preferring The OG To Dogecoin & Other Altcoins The all-time high (ATH) price last month, which continues to be the top of the rally so far, also occurred alongside extreme values of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. With the sentiment now cooled to neutral, some investors may be watching for a fall into fear. This is natural because a rebound would become more probable the worse the sentiment gets now. BTC Price During Bitcoin’s latest plunge, its price briefly slipped below $57,000 before surging back to $57,300. Looks like the price of the asset has registered a sharp drop over the past two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has explained how Bitcoin is forming both a death cross and TD sell signal, which may lead to potential dips in these targets. Bitcoin Looking In Trouble As 12-Hour Chart Forms Two Bearish Signals In a new post on X, analyst Ali discussed two signals that have recently formed in Bitcoin’s 12-hour chart. The first of these is a “death cross,” which occurs when an asset’s short-term simple moving average (SMA) dips below its long-term SMA. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Continue Buying, Now Hold 25.16% Of All Supply Regarding the death cross, the 50-day and 100-day SMAs make up for the short-term and long-term trend lines. Historically, such formations have been considered bearish signals, with the price potentially suffering once the pattern is confirmed. The other signal that has appeared for the cryptocurrency involves the Tom Demark (TD) Sequential. This indicator is popularly used for finding locations of probable tops and bottoms in any asset’s price. The TD Sequential has two phases: the “setup” and “countdown.” The first phase, the setup, is said to be complete once the asset has gone through nine candles of the same polarity. After these nine candles, the price may have reached a likely reversal point. Naturally, if the candles in the setup’s formation were red, then the signal would be a buy one, while if the prevailing trend were bullish, the reversal would be towards the downside. Once the setup is complete, the countdown phase begins. This phase works much like the setup, except that candles are counted up to thirteen instead of nine. After the countdown’s completion, the commodity may be assumed to have reached another potential top/bottom. Now, here is the chart shared by Ali that highlights how signals about both of these technical analysis patterns have been witnessed in the 12-hour price of Bitcoin recently: The two signals that the 12-hour BTC price has formed in recent days | Source: @ali_charts on X As is visible in the graph, the 12-hour price of Bitcoin first saw a death cross form with the 50-day SMA moving under the 100-day SMA. Then, it observed the completion of a TD Sequential setup, with the indicator suggesting a reversal to the downward direction. Since this double bearish pattern has appeared, BTC has been heading down, suggesting that these signals may already be in effect. “If BTC falls below $63,300, brace for possible dives to $61,000 or even $59,000,” says the analyst. Related Reading: Newbie Bitcoin Whales Hold 2x As Much As Veterans: Whats Behind This Trend? From the current price of the cryptocurrency, a potential drawdown to the first of these targets would mean a decline of 4.6%, while one to the latter level would suggest a drop of nearly 8%. BTC Price So far, Bitcoin has managed to prevent falls under the $63,300 target listed by the analyst, as it currently floats around $64,000. Looks like the price of the coin has lost its earlier recovery during the past 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock, charts from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows the next major Bitcoin demand zone is around $56,000, a level BTC might end up revisiting if the decline continues. Bitcoin Has Next Major On-Chain Support Around $56,000 According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, BTC’s recent drawdown has meant that it may end up having to rely on the price range around $56,000 for support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Showing Different Behavior From Past Cycles, But Why? In on-chain analysis, a level’s potential as support or resistance is based on the total number of coins that the investors last acquired there. Below is a chart that shows what the various price ranges around the current spot price of the cryptocurrency look like in terms of this cost-basis distribution. The data for the BTC acquisition distribution across the various price levels | Source: IntoTheBlock on X In the graph, the size of the dot represents the amount of Bitcoin that was purchased inside the corresponding price range. It would appear that the $63,000 to $64,890 level is currently thick with investors. To be more particular, 1 million investors acquired 530,000 BTC inside this range. Generally, whenever the asset retests the cost basis of any investor, they may become more likely to make some kind of move, due to the importance the level holds for them. Investors who were in profits just prior to the retest may be willing to make further bets, believing that if this level was profitable in the past it might be so again in the future. Naturally, this buying effect would only be relevant for the market if a large amount of investors acquired coins inside a tight price range. The $63,000 to $64,890 range qualifies for this. The range should have acted as a support point for the coin, but BTC has recently slipped under it, possibly suggesting that this support level may have broken down. As IntoTheBlock has highlighted in the chart, the next major range of potential support is the $55,200 to $57,100 range. Thus, should the current drawdown continue, this may be the next relevant range. “While this doesn’t mean that Bitcoin has to go this low, it is good to keep this range in mind while price is exploring recent lows,” notes the analytics firm. A decline to the average price of this range ($56,000) would mean a drawdown of almost 10% from the current spot value of the coin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rebounds After Nearing Cost Basis Of Short-Term Whales Before this level, though, there is another interesting on-chain level that BTC could end up revisiting. As analyst James Van Straten has pointed out in an X post, the Realized Price (the average cost basis) of the short-term holders is around $58,800 right now. Looks like the value of the metric has been going up since a while now | Source: @jvs_btc on X The short-term holders (STHs) here refer to the investors who bought within the past 155 days. This group’s Realized Price has been at an important level historically during bull runs, as the asset has often found support at it. Breaks under it have, in fact, usually led to bearish transitions in the past. “If we drop below this, I will concede to a bear market similar to May 2021,” says Straten. BTC Price Bitcoin has registered a decline of almost 7% over the past 24 hours and in the process, has lost any recovery it had made earlier. Now, BTC is trading around $62,100. The price of the asset appears to have been going down recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Prominent X market analyst Cryptododo7 has shared a bearish prediction on the Bitcoin market amidst an ongoing price rally. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has moved from $75,000 to $86,000 over the past three days indicating a rising level of market demand. Despite this positive development, Cryptododo7 warns that the potential for a significant downside still exists. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Price Returning To $74,000? Analyst Identifies Pattern That Suggests So Bitcoin Completes Bearish Pennant Formation – Price Fall To Follow? In a recent post on X, Cryptododo7 shares a technical analysis of the BTC market showing the formation of a bearish pennant. Notably, this development follows a double top formation, a classic reversal signal that aligns with the downward price action observed over the past three months. While recent market gains point to a rising bullish momentum, Cryptododo7 states that the bearish pennant formation signals much potential for a deeper price correction. The bearish pennant forms after a strong downward price move i.e. flagpole as seen when Bitcoin dropped from $96,000 to $76,000 in late February. The pennant follows this price decline, which is just a short period of consolidation where price action forms a small symmetrical triangle. This pattern is usually marked by lower highs and higher lows bringing about two converging trendlines as seen over the last six weeks. Following this consolidation, the market price is expected to break below the lower trendline confirming the intention of a price fall. According to Cryptododo7s post, the lower boundary of the bearish pennant is positioned around $74,000. A decisive close below this level would validate the bearish pattern and signal a likely continuation of the downtrend, with a projected price target of $51,400. Cryptododo7 explains that $51,400 represents Bitcoin’s strongest support level as it aligns with the 200-week moving average. Amidst the current price rally, the analyst states that a retest to this support level is largely reasonable, especially considering ongoing macroeconomic developments. Related Reading: Solana Approaches Make-or-Break Level As Technicals And Fundamentals Align Analyst Bitcoin Faces Short Pressure From Binance Traders In other developments, crypto analyst Ali Martinez reports that 56.18% of Binance traders have opened short positions on Bitcoin, indicating that a majority of traders on the world’s largest exchange are predicting a price decline despite Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum. This development aligns with Cryptododo7s bearish warning as a large volume of traders still hold a negative market outlook amidst recent gains. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $85,416 following a 2.50% gain in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 40.07% and valued at $25.10 billion. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
On-chain data shows a Bitcoin metric has recently hit levels that have historically led to corrections in the cryptocurrencys price. Bitcoin Is Currently 40% Above The Cost Basis Of Short-Term Holders CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn explained in a post on X that the BTC price is currently 40% above the cost basis of the [...]
The post This Bitcoin Indicator Has Hit Levels That Often Lead To Corrections appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
An analyst has explained that the recent trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap suggests a significant change in the assets structure. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Continued To Be Negative In a new post on X, analyst Maartunn discussed how the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap is still negative. The Coinbase Premium Gap here refers [...]
The post Bitcoin Has Undergone This Bearish Structure Change, Analyst Explains appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin exchange inflows of the short-term holders have intensified recently as the asset’s rally has come to a halt. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Are Showing Elevated Exchange Inflows According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the short-term holders have recently made inflows equivalent to 1.28% of their entire supply. The [...]
The post Bitcoin Rally Stalls As Short-Term Holder Exchange Inflows Intensify appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has entered into the overbought region, something that could be bearish for the price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Been Going Up Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the most recent touch of this zone led to a drop in the price of the cryptocurrency. The “Network Value to Transactions” (NVT) is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and its transaction volume (both in USD). What this metric tells is whether the asset is overpriced or underpriced right now, based on how the value of the network (the market cap) compares with its ability to transact coins (the transaction volume). High values of the indicator suggest the cryptocurrency’s cap is inflated compared to its volume, and hence, the coin’s price may be overvalued currently. Similarly, low values can imply the asset may be undervalued at the moment. Now, a metric derived from the NVT is the “NVT Golden Cross,” which compares the 30-day moving average (MA) of the NVT with its 10-day MA. By taking the ratio of the long-term and short-term trends like this, the indicator can help point out the tops and bottoms in the NVT. Here is a chart that displays how the value of the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has changed over the past year: The value of the metric seems to have been climbing in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As shown in the above graph, the quant has marked the historical regions where the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has signaled underbought and overbought conditions for the asset. It looks like the values of the metric above 2.2 have been a sign that the cryptocurrency is undersold, while those below the -1.6 level have implied an oversold condition. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market At Decision Point: aSOPR Retests Crucial Level From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator touched the underpriced region last month, and the price reacted by observing some bullish momentum. Since then, the metric has seen an overall uptrend. A week or so ago, when Bitcoin was floating around the $30,000 level, the NVT Golden Cross entered inside the overpriced region. Following this formation, the price faced some severe drawdown as it plunged to the low $27,000 level. The metric cooled down for a while following this selloff, but in the past couple of days, it has once again risen to touch the red zone. This would mean that the asset may be becoming overbought again. Over the past day, however, Bitcoin has actually only observed some strong upwards momentum, as the coin’s value has now recovered to levels above $29,000 again. Related Reading: Polygon Exchange Supply Spikes, More Downtrend Incoming? In the past, tops haven’t always been immediately formed whenever the NVT Golden Cross has surged to this area, so this wouldn’t exactly be unprecedented. However, considering that the surge may have only made the coin more overpriced, a local top may be hit soon for the asset, if this metric’s pattern is anything to go by. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,400, up 1% in the last week. Looks like BTC has sharply surged over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from mana5280 on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
Bitcoin on-chain data hints that selling from the miners may have been behind the latest plunge in the asset’s price below the $28,000 mark. Bitcoin Miners Have Shown Signs Of Selling Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, miners had been putting on some selling pressure on Bitcoin while the decline [...]
The post What’s Behind The Recent Bitcoin Drop? Here’s What On-Chain Data Says appeared first on Crypto Breaking News.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin miner outflows have surged, suggesting that selling from this cohort may be behind the crypto’s decline to $20,700. Bitcoin Miner Outflows Have Registered Multiple Spikes Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, on Wednesday, miners deposited 669 BTC to exchanges. A relevant indicator here is the “miner reserve,” which measures the total amount of Bitcoin that miners as a whole are currently holding in their wallets. The “miner outflow” is a metric that tells us the total number of coins that these blockchain validators are transferring out of the miner reserve right now. Naturally, the reserve’s value goes down whenever the outflow records a spike, given that an equal or higher amount of the crypto doesn’t flow inside at the same time. Generally, miners take BTC out of their reserve for selling purposes. Thus, whenever the outflow registers high values (or alternatively, the reserve observes a steep decline), it means this cohort might be participating in large amounts of selling at the moment. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin miner outflow and miner reserve over the past couple of months: The value of the reserve seems to have observed significant decline in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin miner outflow saw two very large spikes in the last few days. The spike on January 14 measured around 4,089 BTC, while the one on January 17 amounted to 2,500 BTC. Related Reading: Asian Traders Behind Most Of Bitcoin’s Recent Gains, Report Reveals At the same time as these outflows, their reserves also plunged, which means that there wasn’t much incoming volume to compensate for these outflows. On Wednesday, there was also a third spike, but it was significantly smaller in scale than the other two. However, there was still something about this outflow that’s worth paying attention to. About 669 BTC from this outflow was headed toward centralized exchanges. This can be seen in the data for the “miner to exchange flow” metric, which is also shown in the chart. Usually, exchanges are what investors use for quickly swapping their Bitcoin in favor of altcoins or stablecoins, or for simply withdrawing to fiat. While miner outflows alone can be a sign that there is some selling going on (as these holders may just use over-the-counter (OTC) deals instead of exchanges), deposits straight to exchanges do provide more evidence that selling could be the intent behind the outflows. While a part of the third outflow was headed toward the exchanges, the first two, larger spikes didn’t seem to have coincided with any significant deposits toward these platforms. Related Reading: Altcoin Indexes Outperform Bitcoin, Small Caps Lead Market Nonetheless, the fact remains that following the first two outflows, the Bitcoin rally slowed down to a crawl, and after the third one (that went towards exchanges), BTC outright declined and hit $20,700. This could suggest that selling from miners may have played some part in these developments in the asset’s price. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $20,700, up 14% in the last week. Looks like BTC has plunged in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Jievani Weerasinghe on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
On-chain data shows a large amount of old Bitcoin supply has moved in the last few days, something that could be bearish for the crypto’s price. Bitcoin Supply Older Than 2 Years Showed Movement In The Past Week As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, a total of four large transfers with old supply have taken place in the last week. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Age Bands” (SOAB), which tells us the total number of coins that each age band is moving on the chain right now. The age bands refer to supply groups divided based on the criteria of the age of the coins (or more precisely, of the UTXOs). For example, the 1m-3m age band includes all coins that have been sitting dormant inside the same addresses since at least 1 month ago and at most 3 months ago. The SOAB metric for this group would then measure the total number of these coins that have been transferred to another wallet. Now, the age bands of interest here are the 2y-3y and 3y-5y groups. Typically, investors that have been holding their coins since more than 155 days ago are said to be the “long-term holders” (LTHs), so both these bands include coins belonging to two different segments of the LTHs. Also, it’s a statistical fact that the longer investors hold onto their BTC, the less probable they become to sell at any point. This implies that the holders with such aged supply as in these bands would be some of the most resolute HODLers in the market. Here is a chart that shows the SOAB data for these two Bitcoin age bands over the past week: Looks like there have been multiple spikes in this metric in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As the above graph displays, there have been four large movements of coins belonging to these cohorts in the last few days. Three of these transfers were from the 2y-3y age band, while one was from the 3y-5y group. Related Reading: Ethereum Surges 4% As Whales Show Elevated Activity The spike from the latter cohort was significantly larger than the others, amounting to more than 15,000 BTC being moved. All the transfers from the 2y-3y age band combined came to almost 13,000 BTC, which is still less than the 3y-5y group’s transactions. Generally, large movements of such old Bitcoin supply is a sign of dumping from the LTHs, and if it’s the case here as well, then it would mean that the current market broke these so-called diamond hands into selling. The quant notes that these transfers were at least not headed towards exchanges, which does reduce the probability of these transactions being for selling purposes (but obviously doesn’t eliminate the chances, as these investors could just have been selling through OTC deals). Related Reading: Quant Explains How Bitcoin MVRV MACD Can Signal Price Trends Regardless of that, however, the analyst cautions, “it is very surprising to see FOUR of these transactions in one week. It is definitely worth watching in the next period.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $16,700, up 1% in the last week. BTC seems to be continuing its sideways trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Janko Ferlic on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin open interest RSI is currently forming a pattern that can lead to a short-term correction in the asset’s value. Bitcoin Open Interest 14-Day RSI Has Been Climbing Up Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, a short-term bearish correction might soon take place for BTC. The “open interest” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Bitcoin futures contracts currently open on derivative exchanges. The metric takes into account both long and short contracts. When the value of this metric goes up, it means investors are opening more contracts on derivative exchanges right now. Such a trend could result in higher volatility for the crypto’s price as it implies leverage is increasing in the market. On the other hand, decreasing values suggest holders are getting liquidated or are closing down their futures contracts currently. Naturally, this could lead to a more stable price of BTC due to the lesser leverage. Related Reading: Litecoin Whale Withdraws $32M In LTC From Binance, Good Sign For Rally? Now, the relevant metric in the context of the current discussion isn’t the open interest itself, but its 14-day RSI. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that keeps track of the speed and direction of changes in any metric’s value over a specified period. The below chart shows the trend in the 14-day RSI of the Bitcoin open interest over the past year: The value of the metric seems to have seen some rise in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the quant has highlighted the relevant regions of the trend for the Bitcoin open interest RSI (14). It would appear that whenever the RSI has risen while the BTC price has been moving sideways or downwards, a bearish divergence has formed for the crypto, and its price has undergone a correction. Related Reading: This Needs To Happen For Bitcoin And Ethereum To See A Bullish 2023 There have been other instances of a rising open interest RSI in the past year, but all those were accompanied by a rise in the price itself (and not consolidation or decline) so the same pattern never applied to them. Recently, however, the metric has been once again surging, and this time the price has been moving sideways at the same time, which means the bearish divergence as those earlier instances is now forming. If the trend from the previous occurrences indeed repeats this time as well, then Bitcoin could soon see another short-term correction in its price. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $16,800, up 1% in the last week. Looks like the value of the crypto has enjoyed some uptrend in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Becca on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
World Crypto Global opens the door to digital freedom for everyone.
Manage your free WCG Coins securely—where simplicity meets global accessibility.
FREE CRYPTO COINS
AVAILABLE FOR RESERVATION
ALREADY ALLOCATED
No fees. No catch. Your crypto journey starts here.
World Crypto Global
