Retail Losing Interest In Bitcoin? Volume Plunges 30%

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin transfer volume of retail investors has seen a sharp decline recently, a sign that this group may be losing interest. Bitcoin Volume For Retail-Sized Transactions Has Plunged Recently As explained by CrypoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in a new post on X, the total BTC transfer volume for transactions valued [...]

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Bitcoin Slips Under $64,000: Heres Where The Next Support Is

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021. Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been [...]

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Bitcoin Greed No More: Sentiment Back At Neutral After $57,000 Plunge

Data shows that Bitcoin sentiment has cooled off to neutral from greed following the asset’s latest plunge to the $57,000 level. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Returned To Neutral Levels The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that shows the average sentiment among investors in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market. This index estimates sentiment by considering five factors: volatility, trading volume, social media data, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $92,190: Crypto Analyst Reveals Path To ATH Target The metric uses a scale that runs from zero to 100 to represent this average sentiment. All values under 46 suggest that investors are fearful, while those above 54 imply a greedy market. The zone between these two cutoffs naturally corresponds to the territory of neutral mentality. Now, here is what the Bitcoin sentiment looks like right now, according to the Fear & Greed Index: The value of the metric appears to be 54 at the moment | Source: Alternative As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is at a value of 54, implying that investors share a neutral sentiment currently. However, the neutrality is only just, as the metric is right at the boundary of the greed region. This is a significant departure from yesterday’s sentiment: 67. The chart below shows how the indicator’s value has changed recently. The trend in the Fear & Greed Index over the past year | Source: Alternative As the graph shows, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has been declining recently. For most of February and March, as well as the first half of April, the indicator was in or near a special zone called extreme greed. The market assumes this sentiment at values above 75. As the asset price struggled recently, the mentality cooled off from this extreme zone and entered the normal greed region. With the latest crash in BTC, the index has seen a sharp plunge, now exiting out of greed altogether. Historically, cryptocurrency has tended to move against the majority’s expectations. The stronger this expectation, the higher the probability of such a contrary move. This expectation is considered the strongest in extreme sentiment zones, as well as extreme fear and greed. As such, major bottoms and tops have often occurred in these territories. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance: Traders Preferring The OG To Dogecoin & Other Altcoins The all-time high (ATH) price last month, which continues to be the top of the rally so far, also occurred alongside extreme values of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index. With the sentiment now cooled to neutral, some investors may be watching for a fall into fear. This is natural because a rebound would become more probable the worse the sentiment gets now. BTC Price During Bitcoin’s latest plunge, its price briefly slipped below $57,000 before surging back to $57,300. Looks like the price of the asset has registered a sharp drop over the past two days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Plunges Under $63,000, Heres Where Next On-Chain Support Is

Bitcoin has deepened its decline in the past day with its price now slipping below $63,000. Here’s where the next potential support is, according to on-chain data. Bitcoin Could Find Support At These Price Levels In a new post on X, analyst Ali has discussed how the Bitcoin support and resistance levels are looking like right now based on on-chain data from Glassnode. The indicator of relevance here is the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD), which, in short, tells us about the amount of coins (or more precisely, UTXOs) that were last purchased at any given price level that the asset has visited in its history so far. Related Reading: Bitcoin Has Undergone This Bearish Structure Change, Analyst Explains Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the data for this distribution for the price levels around the recent spot value of the cryptocurrency: Looks like the $72,880 mark is the level with the richest amount of coins at the moment | Source: @ali_charts on X From the graph, it’s visible that there are a few price levels not far from the current one that particularly stands out in terms of the amount of buying that took place at them. In on-chain analysis, the potential for any level to act as support or resistance is based on the total number of coins that have their cost basis at the level in question. Levels thick with coins that are situated under the current price would be probable to act as points of support, while those above the spot value could prove to be resistance walls. As is apparent from the graph, the $61,100, $56,685, and $51,530 levels are the ones below the current price that hold the cost basis of a notable amount of the supply right now. Naturally, this means that should the decline continue further, these would be the levels to watch for a possible rebound. Two levels above, however, are even larger than all three of these support levels: the cost basis centers around $66,990 and $72,880. Interestingly, the latter of these is the single largest acquisition level out of all the price levels listed in the chart, implying that a large amount of FOMO buying has occurred at the asset’s all-time high levels. In the scenario that Bitcoin regains its upward momentum, these levels of high cost basis population would be where the asset could be most probable to find some trouble. Now, as for why acquisition centers are considered relevant for support and resistance in on-chain analysis is the fact that investors are likely to show some kind of reaction when a retest of their cost basis takes place. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Cools Off, Price Rebound Soon? When such a retest is from above, the holders may decide to accumulate more, believing that the price will go up again in the future. On the other hand, they may sell instead if the retest is from below, as they may think exiting at break-even is better than risking another drop. A large number of coins having their cost basis at the same level means a potentially large degree of one of these reactions happening and, hence, a strong support or resistance effect on the price. BTC Price Bitcoin is inching closer to the first major on-chain support level as it has now dropped to $62,700. The price of the asset appears to have plummeted over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin To $53,200? Why History Says Its Possible

As Bitcoin drops below $68,000, history suggests this correction is rather tame for bull markets, as plunges to this deep on-chain level have been the norm. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Currently Around $53,200 As pointed out by CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn in a post on X, BTC still has a decent margin over the realized price of the short-term holders. The “realized price” is an on-chain metric that keeps track of the average price at which the Bitcoin investors acquired their coins. The indicator calculates this value by going through the transaction history of each coin and assuming that the last transfer of it was the last time it was purchased (that is, the price at the time is its current cost basis). Related Reading: Why Is Bitcoin Price Down Today? 3 Key Reasons When the spot value of the cryptocurrency dips below the realized price, it means that the average investor is now in a state of loss. On the other hand, a break above implies the market as a whole has entered into net profits. In the context of the current discussion, the realized price for only a particular segment of the investors is of interest: the “short-term holders” (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin realized price specifically for this cohort: Looks like the value of the metric has been trending up recently | Source: @JA_Maartun on X As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH realized price has shot up recently as the price of the asset has gone up. This makes sense, as this group includes the most recent buyers, who would continuously be buying at higher prices in an uptrend, thus raising their average cost basis. At present, this cohort’s realized price is about $53,200. During the past day, BTC has seen a sharp drop that has taken its price below the $68,000 mark, but clearly, the STHs would still be in high profits even after this drawdown. “In previous bull markets, the average cost basis of short-term holders was fully reset multiple times,” explains Maartunn. This trend is most prominent in the data for the 2017 bull run when the price retested this level several times. An interesting pattern that has been held is that these retests of the level during bull trends have generally resulted in the cryptocurrency finding support and turning itself back around. The explanation for this trend may lie in the fickle nature of the STHs. The cost basis is an important level for these investors, and when a retest of it happens, they panic and show some reaction. Related Reading: Brace For Impact: MicroStrategy Is Planning Another $500 Million Bitcoin Purchase During uptrends, these holders are more likely to buy more when a retest of their cost basis occurs since they may think that the same price levels that were profitable earlier will be so again in the near future. Naturally, it’s not a certainty that Bitcoin would also end up retesting this level in this bull market. Still, a correction might reach close to it if the historical precedent is anything to go by. BTC Price Following its 7% drop in the past day, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,700. The price of the coin has registered a sharp drop over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Hangs At $26,200: Why This Is A Crucial Support Level

Bitcoin has plunged during the last 24 hours and now finds itself at the $26,200 level. Here’s why this level is important for the asset. Bitcoin 200 WMA & 111 DMA Are Both At $26,200 Right Now In a new tweet, the analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how the different technical pricing models for Bitcoin may be interacting with the asset’s price currently. There are four relevant technical pricing models here, and each of them is based on different moving averages (MAs) for the cryptocurrency. An MA is a tool that finds the average of any given quantity over a specified region, and as its name implies, it moves with time and changes its value according to changes in said quantity. MAs, when taken over long ranges, can smooth out the curve of the quantity and remove short-term fluctuations from the data. This has made them useful analytical tools since they can make studying long-term trends easier. In the context of the current topic, the relevant MAs for Bitcoin are 111-day MA, 200-week MA, 365-day MA, and 200-day MA. The first of these, the 111-day MA, is called the Pi Cycle indicator, and it generally finds useful in identifying short to mid-term momentum in the asset’s value. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio Nears All-Time Lows, Big Move Soon? The 200-week MA is used for finding the baseline momentum of a BTC cycle as 200 weeks are equal to almost 4 years, which is about what the length of BTC cycles in the popular sense is. Here is a chart that shows the trend in these different Bitcoin technical pricing models over the past year: Looks like pairs of models have come together in phase in recent weeks | Source: Glassnode on Twitter As shown in the above graph, these different Bitcoin pricing models have taken turns in providing support and resistance to the price during different periods of the cycle. For example, the 111-day MA turned into support recently, as the price rebounded off this level back during the plunge in March of this year, as can be seen in the chart. The 111-day and 200-week MAs have recently come into phase, as both their values stand at $26,200 right now. This is the level that Bitcoin has been finding support at in recent days, so it would appear that the base formed by these lines may be helping the price currently. Related Reading: Sharks & Whales Accumulate Stablecoins, Why This Could Be Bullish For Bitcoin Glassnode notes that if a break below this region of support takes place, the next levels of interest can be the 365-day and 200-day MAs. The former of these simply represent the yearly average price, while the latter metric is called the Mayer Multiple (MM). The MM has historically been associated with the transition point between bullish and bearish trends for the cryptocurrency. When the 111-day MA provided support to the price back in March, the metric had been in phase with the MM. From the graph, it’s visible that the 365-day and 200-day MAs have also interestingly found confluence recently, as their current values are $22,300 and $22,600, respectively. This would imply that between $22,300 and $22,600 may be the next major support area for the asset. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,200, down 4% in the last week. BTC has plunged during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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Bitcoin Plunge To $29,200 Sends 5.9% Of Supply Into Loss

On-chain data shows an additional 5.9% of the total Bitcoin supply has entered into losses as the cryptocurrency’s price has plummeted to $29,200 today. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Has Declined To 70.4% After Today’s Price Plunge According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, 1.11 million BTC has gone underwater with the latest asset value drop. The relevant indicator here is the “percent supply in profit,” which tells us about the percentage of the total Bitcoin supply currently carrying some profit. Related Reading: Bitcoin Cash Price Could Restart Rally To $300 If It Breaks This Resistance This metric works by going through the on-chain history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was previously moved at on the network. If this last transfer price for any coin were less than the current spot price of the asset, then that particular coin would be holding an unrealized gain currently. The percent supply in profit adds up all such coins and calculates what part of the total supply they make up for. A counterpart indicator called the “percent supply in loss” keeps track of the opposite type of tokens, and its value can be simply found by subtracting the supply in profit from 100. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin percent supply in profit over the past day or so: The value of the indicator seems to have taken a hit in recent hours | Source: Glassnode on Twitter As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin percent supply in profit had been floating around 76.3% when the cryptocurrency price was above $30,200 yesterday. With the plunge to $29,200 over the past day, though, the metric has also taken a sharp hit, as only 70.4% of the total circulating supply is holding some unrealized profit now. Historically, whenever the profit in supply has crossed the 75% mark, declines in the price have become more probable. This is because investors become more likely to sell the more profits they hold. The latest tumble in the asset may have come because of this, as the investors who had been sitting on profits may have buckled and sold their coins to harvest their gains. As the metric has cooled down well below the 75% mark now, it’s possible that this may be it for the correction. Before the plunge to $29,200, Bitcoin had been consolidating above $30,000 since many weeks ago. As buying and selling took place in this sideways trend, many investors slowly gained their cost basis at or above this level. Related Reading: Bitcoin (BTC) Address Dormant For More Than 11 Years Moves $31 Million In BTC Due to this reason, the drop below this level has resulted in a significant part of the supply going into loss. More specifically, around 1.11 million BTC (equivalent to 5.9% of the total supply) has entered into the red. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $29,100, down 4% in the last week. BTC has seen a sharp drop during the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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Bitcoin Plunges Below $27,000 As Miners Show Signs Of Selling

Bitcoin has now dipped below the $27,000 level as on-chain data shows the miners have possibly been selling the asset recently. Bitcoin Miner Reserve Has Taken A Sharp Plummet Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, miners have taken out about 1,750 BTC from their wallets during the past day. The relevant indicator here is the “miner outflow,” which measures the total amount of Bitcoin that miners are transferring out of their wallets currently. The counterpart metric of the outflow is called the “inflow,” and it naturally tracks the total number of coins going into the addresses of these blockchain validators. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin miner outflow, as well as the inflow, over the last few weeks: Looks like the value of the outflow has been pretty high in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant Whenever the miner inflow has a high value, it means that this cohort is depositing a large amount of Bitcoin into their wallets. Such a trend, when prolonged, can be a sign that the miners are accumulating right now. Naturally, this can have bullish implications for the price. When the outflow is high, on the other hand, it suggests that a large amount of the asset is exiting from the supply of the miners. Generally, the main reason why these holders transfer their coins out of their wallets is for selling-related purposes, so this kind of trend can be bearish for the cryptocurrency’s value. In the above graph, it’s visible that the miner inflow has been at relatively low values during the past day, implying that these investors aren’t depositing any significant amounts to their wallets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Binary CDD Stays Low, Here’s What This Means The miner outflow, however, has registered a pretty high spike in the same period. In total, around 1,750 BTC ($47 million) has exited the supply of the miners with this surge in the indicator. Since there haven’t been any inflows to counteract these outflows, a net amount of the asset has now left the miners’ wallets. This would mean that if the outflows were made for selling purposes, a net bearish effect should appear on the price. An indicator that helps better identify whether these transfers were for selling or not is the “miner to exchange flow,” which tracks only the miner outflows heading towards centralized exchanges. Usually, this cohort uses the exchanges when they want to take part in distribution. As shown in the above chart, however, the metric has remained low recently, meaning that these outflows haven’t directly entered into the wallets of these platforms. Though, the quant has discovered that the destination wallet of the 1,750 miner outflow made another transfer, which was indeed towards an exchange. “There is a high probability that 1,750 BTC ultimately went to Binance,” explains the analyst. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Support Line Is Still Active, Bullish Signal? When these outflows took place yesterday, Bitcoin was above the $27,000 level. Following them, however, the asset has observed a plunge and is now below this mark, suggesting that this latest selling pressure from the miners may have been behind the decline. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $26,800, up 2% in the last week. BTC has declined today | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Brian Wangenheim on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin Plunges Below $27,000, Which Holder Groups Are Selling?

Bitcoin has plunged below the $27,000 mark during the past day. Here are the market segments that are possibly participating in this selloff. These Bitcoin Investors Have Been Spending Their Coins Recently In a new tweet, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has broken down the prices at which the average coins sold today were bought. [...]

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