How High Can Bitcoin Go Before A Top? Analyst Chimes In

An analyst has explained how the Bitcoin rally could still have room to run before hitting a top based on the data of this indicator. Bitcoin Macro Oscillator Isn’t At Historical Top Zone Yet In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has discussed the recent trend developing in the Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO). This indicator combines four different metrics to provide an oscillating value around the zero mark. The indicators in question are the market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) ratio, Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) ratio, and Sharpe ratio. Related Reading: Is Mt. Gox A Worry For Bitcoin? Crypto Analyst Weighs In The chart below shows how the oscillator based on these metrics has fluctuated in value over the past few Bitcoin cycles. From the graph, it’s visible that tops in the cryptocurrency’s price have historically coincided with the metric reaching relatively high levels. More particularly, the 2013 and 2021 tops occurred when the indicator breached the 1.8 level, while the 2017 peak occurred when the oscillator hit 2.4. So far, in the current rally, the oscillator has achieved a peak value of 1.2. This high coincided with the asset’s all-time high (ATH) price, which continues to be the top of the run thus far. When considering the historical precedent, though, this value doesn’t seem to be high enough for the top to have been cyclical. As the coin’s price has consolidated since this high, the oscillator has cooled off, now hitting just 0.69. Thus, the asset has gained more distance from the zone where tops have occurred in the past. “This 2.5 months of consolidation under bullish demand has been very good for Bitcoin; it means the price has more room to run before topping out,” notes Woo. The analyst suggests that BTC could now have 2 to 3 levels of the BMO to climb before reaching the macro top. Woo has also pointed out a potential positive sign brewing for Bitcoin regarding its net capital flows. Below is a chart showing this metric’s trend over the last few years. As displayed in the graph, net capital flows into Bitcoin were quite high during the surge toward the price ATH, but money stopped flowing in as the asset fell into sideways movement. Related Reading: Ethereum Deposits At 4-Month High: Whales Preparing For Selloff? During May, though, the net flows have finally reversed the trend, as they have been on the rise once more. This fresh demand can naturally be bullish for the cryptocurrency’s value. BTC Price Bitcoin surged above the $70,500 level earlier, but the coin has since slumped back down, trading around $67,800. Featured image from Dall-E, woocharts.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Latest Bitcoin Top Is Different From 2021 Peak, Analyst Explains Why

An analyst has explained why the recent high in Bitcoin has experienced different market conditions than those observed during the 2021 bull run peak. Bitcoin Liquidations Have Been Short-Dominated In Recent Market High In a new post on X, on-chain analyst Checkmate pointed out how the latest 2024 high achieved following the spot exchange-traded fund [...]

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Crypto Analyst: 33% Chance Bitcoin Already ToppedBrace For $52,000

Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas has reduced his Bitcoin exposure, warning followers that while the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already peaked for this four-year cycle has materially increased. In an update published April 8th, Loukas detailed the rationale behind selling one-third of his model portfolio at $79,500, citing both technical deterioration and a worsening macroeconomic backdrop. I still think we have the ability to push later in the year or even early next year to a high in the four-year cycle, Loukas said. However, he emphasized that recent price action and structural breakdowns in the charts demanded a more cautious approach. Im not calling for this to be the top in the cycle, he clarified, but Im saying that the probability of it being a top has increased from that low risk possibility to something that is maybe more like a thirdyou know, a 33% chance. Bitcoin Bull In Doubt The portfolio shift, which brings the models Bitcoin allocation down to 27 BTC with the remainder in cash, is not a call for imminent collapse but a hedge against rising downside risk. Loukas stressed that his decision was not reactive or impulsive but rather aligned with a long-standing strategy informed by the cyclical structure of Bitcoins price history. He referred back to his February video where he warned that if the next weekly cycle failed to hold support and took out recent lows, it would signal deeper trouble. In the third year of a bull market, you dont want to be seeing significant lows like the one we had in February and then to be taken out. It doesnt happen often. Related Reading: Next Bitcoin Peak Delayed To Late 2026, Business Cycle Expert Warns Loukas pointed to a series of trendline violations and critical support breaks on the weekly and monthly charts. While acknowledging that technical breaks are not, in isolation, reliable predictors of cycle tops, he argued they add weight to the thesis that the market may be transitioning into the declining phase of the four-year cycle. We are now 29 months into the cycle, he said, so its deep enough now where I just need to take this a little more seriously. Although the analyst remains bullish long-termhighlighting strong price performance, ETF inflows, and institutional adoptionhe warned that macroeconomic headwinds could accelerate short-term downside. Theres a serious macro issue going on here with tariffs, trade, and the economy, Loukas noted. We havent seen an impact or disruption like this to world trade in decades that could potentially become a full-blown global recession. In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin could fully decouple from risk assets remains, in Loukas view, unrealistic. With ETFs being so new, and Saylor and othersthe institutional or TradFi involvement in Bitcoinleads me to believe that a full decoupling is probably unrealistic. The analyst outlined a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin declines toward the $52,000 levela roughly 50% retracement from its January highs. While stressing that this is not a forecast but a contingency, Loukas stated that such a move could present a strong reentry opportunity. If by some chance that Bitcoin over the next month to three months makes its way down to say the $54,000 level, I would be thinking at that point a 50% retracement is enough where I would want to redeploy some risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin Plunges To $74,000 As Trump Announces New Tariffs He added that any significant rally followed by a lower low would, in his view, confirm a four-year cycle top. A big move up and then a subsequent move down is pretty much sort of the final nail in the coffin. Still, Loukas hasnt ruled out higher highs later this year. He floated the possibility of an atypical super right-translated cycle, in which Bitcoin peaks well beyond the standard month-35 windowperhaps around month 41 or 42followed by a sharp but brief correction and then a continuation into the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would involve a complex double or even triple-pump structure, echoing the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns. For now, the model portfolio remains two-thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas reiterated that he would prefer a bullish outcome even at the cost of reduced exposure. Id much prefer to ride two-thirds of a position up to $150K, $200K, or even more, than I would to say, Well, Bitcoins back down to $48K or lower. Ultimately, Loukas framed the move not as bearish capitulation but as prudent risk management. I am essentially an allocator of risk and capital and as you get deeper and deeper into the cycle, the higher you go, the risk/reward of course changes. At press time, BTC traded at $77,743. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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This Bitcoin Indicator May Have Signaled Latest Market Downturn In Advance

The Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross indicator attained overheated values coinciding with the recent local top in the price. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Surged To 3.17 During Recent Peak An analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained that the NVT Golden Cross may have served as an indicator of the recent top in cryptocurrency prices. The “NVT” refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the ratio between Bitcoin’s market cap and transaction volume (both in USD). This ratio is generally used to determine whether the asset’s price is fair or not. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Capitulate: $5.2 Billion Sold At Loss When the indicator has a high value, the asset’s price (the market cap) is high compared to its utility (the transaction volume). Such a trend may suggest that the coin could be overvalued currently. On the other hand, the low metric could suggest the network isn’t valued fairly compared to its high ability to transact capital, and as such, its price may be due to an uplift. In the context of the current discussion, the NVT itself isn’t interesting, but rather, a modified version called the NVT Golden Cross is. This metric compares the short-term trend of the NVT (10-day moving average) against its long-term trend (30-day MA). Like the NVT, this variant is also used to estimate the fairness of the asset. Historically, values greater than 2.2 have been a signal that BTC is overheated, as the short-term trend is notably outpacing the long-term at these levels. Similarly, values under the -1.6 level may indicate that the cryptocurrency is undervalued; hence, its price may likely form a bottom and find a rebound soon. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross rose to relatively high levels earlier. This growth happened as the asset’s price rallied towards the $71,000 level. The metric had touched the 3.17 mark in this surge, which suggests the coin may have become too overpriced. Indeed, the asset followed this by observing a sharp drawdown, which took it back under the $65,000 level. As the quant has marked in the chart, a similar pattern of the NVT Golden Cross hitting these high levels and resulting in a price correction was observed at different points over the last few years. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders No Longer Extremely Greedy: Rebound Signal? Since the latest overheated signal, the indicator has cooled off alongside the Bitcoin price, although it hasn’t gone towards the negative side yet. BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has now climbed back to $67,800. Looks like the price of the asset has seen some uplift over the last 24 hours | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Is The Bitcoin Top Already Here? This Historical Pattern Says So

A historical pattern currently forming in a Bitcoin on-chain indicator could suggest that a top may be near for the asset, if not already in. Bitcoin SOPR Ratio Is Forming A Historical Top Pattern Right Now In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about a pattern regarding the SOPR Ratio. The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss right now. Related Reading: Ethereum To See Fresh Move Soon? What Futures Data Says When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means that profit-selling is dominant in the market currently. On the other hand, the metric being under the threshold suggests the average holder is moving coins at some net loss. In the context of the current topic, the SOPR itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a different version called the SOPR Ratio. The name may be a bit confusing as SOPR already contains a “ratio,” but the latter ratio here corresponds to the fact that this indicator compares the SOPR of two Bitcoin cohorts: the long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). These investor groups make up for the two main divisions of the BTC market done based on holding time, with 155 days being the cutoff between the two. The STHs are those who bought within the past 155 days, while the LTHs include the HODLers carrying coins for longer than this timespan. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio over the history of the cryptocurrency: The 7-day MA value of the metric seems to have turned around towards the downside recently | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin SOPR Ratio had been heading up throughout 2023 and early parts of 2024, but recently, the metric has hit a top and reversed its direction. Whenever the SOPR Ratio is higher than 1, it means the LTHs, who are generally known to be resolute hands, are participating in a higher degree of profit-taking than the STHs. It would appear that as BTC had observed its rally and approached a new all-time high (ATH), these diamond hands had started harvesting some of the gains they had earned over their long holding time. And once the price set a new ATH, these investors participated in peak profit-taking. Since then, their profit-selling has been dropping off, although they are still harvesting notably higher gains than the STHs. In the chart, the analyst highlights how this pattern has been repeated at different points in the asset’s history. While the scale of the peak LTH profit-taking has been heading down over the cycles, it’s still true that the metric’s top has coincided with tops in the price during each of them. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $1: Analyst Thinks Dream Milestone Could Be Hit In Coming Weeks As the line drawn by the quant suggests, it’s possible that the latest peak in the metric may have in fact been the top for this cycle. This is only, however, assuming that the pattern of diminishing returns in the indicator holds to the exact degree judged by the line. It’s possible that the peak will still be higher than the current levels, while at the same time being lower than the previous cycle’s peak, thus still being in-line with the historical Bitcoin pattern. Whatever the case be, though, the fact that the SOPR ratio has apparently hit a top could still be a bearish signal, if only in the short term. BTC Price Bitcoin has been making some steady recovery over the last few days as its price has now surged back above $66,100. Looks like the price of the asset has been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Maxim Hopman on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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CryptoQuants Bitcoin Bull-Bear Indicator Flags Price As Overheated

The Bitcoin “bull-bear” indicator from the on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has recently flagged the cryptocurrency’s price to be “overheated.” Bitcoin May Be Overheated According To This Indicator As pointed out by CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno in a post on X, the BTC price has increased so fast that some on-chain indicators have started to signal a potential phase of overheating. Related Reading: Bitcoin Safe From Drops Under $60,300? On-Chain Data Says So The first metric of interest here is the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator made by the analytics firm that tracks the various phases of bull and bear markets. Here is how the indicator has looked like over the past year: The trend in the bull-bear indicator for the cryptocurrency | Source: @jjcmoreno on X As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin has been inside the “bull” territory since the early part of 2023 and over the course of this run, the metric has hit “overheated bull” levels during a few different instances. From the chart, it’s visible that such values of the indicator have previously coincided with some kind of top in the cryptocurrency’s price. With the latest rally in the asset, it would appear that the market has once again entered into this territory of overheating. Another metric, the BTC “Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability,” is also suggesting an overheated market, according to Moreno. This indicator basically keeps track of whether the miners are being overpaid or underpaid compared to the fair value baseline. The value of the metric appears to have spiked recently | Source: @jjcmoreno on X As displayed in the chart, the Bitcoin Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability has entered into the “extremely overpaid” zone after the price surge, implying that a cool off might perhaps be due. Finally, the Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are also sitting on large profits at the moment, which can be another sign that things have started to heat up. Looks like the value of the metric has been quite high in recent days | Source: @jjcmoreno on X The STHs refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. These holders are considered the weak hands of the sector, who may easily sell at the sight of FUD or FOMO. As the above chart shows, this cohort’s unrealized profits have swelled up as the Bitcoin price has enjoyed its rally. Recently, they have achieved profit margins upward of 45%. At any point, holders in profits are more likely to sell their coins. As these profits rise, the probability of the investor buckling into the allure of profit-taking also increases. Related Reading: Bitcoin Volatility Induces $700 Million Carnage In Crypto Futures As such, a large amount of these fickle-minded Bitcoin investors holding significant profits means that there is a high risk of a potential selloff taking place in the market. While all these indicators are pointing to the cryptocurrency perhaps being overvalued, there has still been a positive development in an indicator. This metric is the “Inflows to Accumulation Addresses.” The indicator appears to have spiked | Source: @jjcmoreno on X Accumulation addresses are defined as those that have a history of only buying Bitcoin and never of selling. At present, these HODLers are observing an all-time high amount of inflows, which can definitely be a bullish sign. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen the latest continuation to its run in the past 24 hours as its price has now broken past the $65,100 barrier. BTC has observed a sharp surge recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Top In Yet? What The Legendary MVRV Ratio Says

Here’s what the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio suggests about where the market is currently in terms of a top. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Seen A Decline To The 2.34 Level According to data from the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, the BTC MVRV ratio surged high earlier this year as the cryptocurrency rally took place. The “MVRV ratio” is a popular indicator that tracks the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The former is simply the total valuation of the asset’s supply at the current spot price, while the latter is an on-chain capitalization model. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern The realized cap measures the total sum of the value of the cryptocurrency’s supply, assuming that each coin in circulation has its true value at the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain rather than the current spot value. One way to interpret the realized cap is that since it takes into account the buying price of every token in circulation (assuming that the last transaction of every token was indeed the point at which it last changed hands), it essentially sums up the total capital the investors have invested in the asset. As such, the MVRV ratio tells us how the total value that Bitcoin investors are carrying right now (that is, the market cap) compares against the value they put in (the realized cap). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the past few years: Looks like the value of the metric has been turning down in recent days | Source: IntoTheBlock on X As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has had a value greater than 1 for a while now. When the indicator has such values, the market cap is greater than the realized cap, and hence, the investors carry net profits. With the latest rally in the asset, this indicator has surged to relatively high levels, a natural consequence of the holders’ profits ballooning up with the price surge. After the recent drawdown in the price, though, the MVRV ratio has also turned itself around, as it’s now heading down. At present, the ratio has a value of around 2.34. “Traditionally, an MVRV ratio above 3 has been a reliable marker for predicting price peaks,” notes IntoTheBlock. So far, in the current rally, the metric hasn’t crossed this mark. It did come close recently, but the latest decline has meant it has gained a bit more distance to the level. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Halving May Not Result In Supply Squeeze: Glassnode Why have tops historically occurred at high values of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio? The answer is that investors in profits are more likely to participate in selling, and this temptation to take profits only increases as their gains grow larger. Because of this, selloffs are most probable when the market is holding extreme levels of profits, which is exactly what high MVRV ratio values reflect. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,200, up 3% over the past 24 hours. The price of the asset appears to have rebounded over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Yiit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern

The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained that Bitcoin tends to reach a potential top when the long-term holders show this pattern. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Ramping Up Distribution In a new report, Glassnode discussed the influence that the BTC long-term holders have on the cryptocurrencys supply dynamics. The long-term holders (LTHs) here refer [...]

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Is Bitcoin Peak In? This Data Suggests Otherwise, Analytics Firm Says

An analytics firm has explained how the data related to the stablecoins could hint at whether the Bitcoin market top is in or not. Stablecoins Have Seen Their Market Cap Touch New Highs Recently In a new post on X, the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has discussed about the trend in the combined stablecoin market cap. “Stablecoins” refer to cryptocurrencies that are pegged to a fiat currency (with USD being the most popular choice). Generally, investors make use of these assets when they want to avoid the volatility associated with other coins like Bitcoin. Traders who invest into stablecoins, however, usually do so because they plan to venture (back) into the volatile side of the sector. Related Reading: Dogecoin Can Still Go Parabolic If This Support Holds, Analyst Says As such, the supply of these fiat-tied tokens is often considered as the available ‘dry powder’ for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Given this placement of the stables in the sector, their market cap can be worth keeping an eye on. Here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the stablecoin market cap over the past few years: As displayed in the above graph, the market cap of the stablecoins has been riding an uptrend recently and exploring new all-time highs (ATHs). Following the latest continuation to the increase, the metric has hit a whopping $219 billion. To put things into perspective, the market cap of Ethereum (ETH), the second largest asset in the sector, is just under $233 billion. Thus, the stables are less than $14 billion away. IntoTheBlock has pointed out an interesting pattern related to this indicator. In the chart, it’s visible that the metric’s top last cycle was when it hit $187 billion in April 2022. Evidently, this peak in the market cap of the stables coincided with the start of the bear market. “Historically, stablecoin supply peaks align with cycle highs,” notes the analytics firm. So far in the current cycle, the indicator has continued to rise, despite the decline in the asset’s price. If the previous trend is anything to go by, this could be an indication that Bitcoin and other coins are yet to enter a bear market. That said, the latest market conditions haven’t exactly been entirely bullish. The most positive scenario occurs whenever both BTC and the stablecoins enjoy an increase in their market caps. In such a period, a net amount of fresh capital inflows are entering into the sector. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Altcoin Volume FadesInvestor Exhaustion Setting In? At present, though, the stablecoins have been rising while Bitcoin and others have been falling. This could potentially imply a rotation of capital has been occurring, rather than fresh inflows. During the mid-2021 correction, a similar pattern emerged, but the market was able to find its footing and the second half of the rally took place. It now remains to be seen whether something similar would happen for Bitcoin this time as well, or if the market will go the way it did in 2022. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $84,700, down over 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Shows 35.8% Weekly Gains: Why This Means The Top Is Near

Bitcoin closed the past week with returns of about 35.8%; here’s what has happened historically when the asset’s price has performed similarly. Bitcoin Registered 35.8% Gains During The Past Week BTC has continued its strong upwards momentum recently, with the last week being one of the best-performing weeks in the history of the cryptocurrency as [...]

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95% Of Bitcoin Now In Profit: Why This Could Be A Signal To Sell

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin supply in profit has reached levels that led to some tops in the past, like the peak of the April 2019 rally. Bitcoin Supply In Profit Has Shot Up Following BTC’s Latest Run As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, Bitcoin supply in profit has hit very high levels after the asset’s latest rally. The “supply in profit” here refers to a metric that measures the percentage of the total circulating BTC supply that’s currently carrying some amount of unrealized gain. This indicator works by going through the transaction history of each coin (more precisely, each UTXO) on the blockchain to see what price it was last moved at. Assuming that the previous transfer of the coin was the last time it changed hands, the price at that instance would act as its current cost basis. Related Reading: Ethereum Leaves Bitcoin Behind, But Is This Rally Sustainable? As such, if the previous transfer price for any coin was less than the spot value of the cryptocurrency right now, then that particular coin would be holding a profit currently. The supply in profit sums up all such coins and calculates what percentage of the total supply they make up for. A counterpart indicator called the “supply in loss” does the same for coins of the opposite type (that is, those with a cost basis lower than the current price). This metric’s value can also simply be found by subtracting the supply in profit from 100 (since the total supply must add up to 100%). Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin supply in profit over the past few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin supply in profit has naturally shot up recently as the asset’s price has gone through its rally. After the latest continuation of the run towards the $57,000 level, the metric has hit the 95% mark. This means that 95% of all UTXOs in existence is carrying a profit at the moment. This may not entirely be a positive thing, however, if history is anything to go by. As the quant has highlighted in the chart, the BTC rally that started in April 2019 topped out just as the supply in profit hit the same high levels as right now. Similarly, the local top in 2020 at the beginning of the last bull market also coincided with these levels. The reason behind this pattern is likely to be the fact that investors in profit are more likely to sell their coins at any point. Thus, when a large percentage of holders are carrying gains, the probability of a mass selloff can spike up. Related Reading: XRP Forms Buy Signal, Analyst Predicts Surge To This Target That said, in the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, as well as during the November 2021 peak, the indicator did manage to surpass these levels for a while before the top was encountered. As such, it remains to be seen if the current rally is similar to the likes of the April 2019 run, in which case a top might be hit here, or if it’s a proper bull run, meaning that there might still be a while to go before the peak. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around the $56,500 level, up 8% over the past week. Looks like the price of the asset has enjoyed a sharp rally today | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Signal That Has Held Since December Says Its Time To Sell

An analyst has explained that an indicator that has been holding for Bitcoin since December is now giving a sell signal for the cryptocurrency. TD Sequential Is Providing A Sell Signal On Daily Bitcoin Chart Currently In a new post on X, analyst Ali discussed a TD Sequential sell signal forming in the Bitcoin daily [...]

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Bitcoin Indicator That Timed January Top Now Gives Signal To Buy

An analyst has pointed out how the Bitcoin Tom Demark (TD) Sequential has just given a signal that could be bullish for the asset’s price. Bitcoin TD Sequential Is Flashing A Buy Signal Right Now In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about the TD Sequential signal that has just formed for Bitcoin on its daily chart. The “TD Sequential” here refers to an indicator from technical analysis (TA) that’s used for locating probable tops and bottoms in any asset’s price. Related Reading: Just 10 Holders Control 61.3% Of Shiba Inu Supply: How This Compares With Other Altcoins The indicator consists of two phases: setup and countdown. The end of each of these phases is assumed to coincide with a signal for a turnaround in the cryptocurrency. In the first phase, the setup, candles of the same color in the chart are counted up to nine. These candles don’t need to be consecutive, just that there should be nine of them. Once the ninth candle is in, the setup is said to be ‘complete,’ and the price can be considered to have reached a reversal. The second phase, the countdown, picks up right where the setup left. It works almost exactly in the same manner, with the one exception being that candles here are counted up to 13 instead. Following these 13 candles, the asset arrives at another point of likely trend exhaustion. Naturally, where the price would go after the end of either phase depends on the polarity of the candles involved in the phase’s completion. Green candles imply a reversal to the downside, while red ones suggest the formation of a bottom. Bitcoin has recently formed a TD Sequential signal of the first type. Here’s the chart shared by Martinez that shows the pattern in the coin’s daily price: From the graph, it’s visible that the 24-hour price of Bitcoin has finished a TD Sequential setup with nine red candles recently, which suggests the asset may be due a bullish reversal. In the chart, the analyst has also highlighted the last signal that the indicator gave for the cryptocurrency. It would appear that this previous signal was a sell one and it was also right on the mark as it coincided with last month’s price top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Still In Bull Market, On-Chain Indicator Confirms Given this pattern, it’s possible that the latest TD Sequential signal would also end up holding for Bitcoin. If so, it might finally help the asset shove off its recent bearish winds. Speaking of the TD Sequential, another top coin, Cardano (ADA), has also formed a signal recently, as Martinez has pointed out in another X post. As displayed in the below chart, the pattern is a bullish one for ADA as well. BTC Price Bitcoin slipped under the $95,000 level yesterday, but the asset has made some quick recovery in the past day as its price is now trading around $97,700. Featured image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.com

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Has Bitcoin Rally Already Hit Top? Here’s What Puell Multiple Says

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Puell Multiple has hit pretty high levels recently. Here’s what this may mean for the current rally. Bitcoin Puell Multiple Has Risen To High Levels In Recent Days As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the Puell Multiple is currently at even higher levels than those seen during the 2021 bull run top. The “Puell Multiple” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the daily revenue of the Bitcoin miners and the 365-day average value of the same. The mining revenue here is calculated by multiplying the spot price by the total number of coins that the miners are issuing (that is, receiving their block rewards) every day. This metric tries to judge whether the current price of the cryptocurrency is fair or not by comparing the current revenue of the miners against the yearly average. When this metric has a value above 1, it means the miners are making higher revenues than the average for the past year right now. The asset’s value may be said to be overpriced during such times as the miners gain more motive to sell the more profits they are making. Related Reading: Stablecoins Interest Spikes As Traders Look To Exit Market On the other hand, values of the indicator below 1 imply these chain validators are making less than the norm currently. The lower the indicator’s value goes, the more trouble the miners may have in supporting their operations. Thus, the coin could be assumed to be undervalued during such conditions. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Puell Multiple over the last few years: The value of the metric seems to have been quite high in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant Historically, major bottoms in the cryptocurrency’s price have formed whenever the Puell Multiple has dipped below the 0.5 mark. Below this value, miners’ daily revenues are less than 50% of the yearly average, meaning that this cohort comes under some intense pressure inside this zone. Tops, however, haven’t been so simple; the value at which they occur seems to have been decreasing with each Bitcoin bull run. But in general, they have naturally occurred at values significantly above the 1 mark (that is, during periods when the miners are raking in large amounts of revenues). During the last couple of months, the Puell Multiple has once again been above the 1 level, and recently, it has observed a further surge towards a value of 2. This value is interestingly even higher than what was observed during the November 2021 all-time high price, but not near the levels of the first half of 2021 top. Related Reading: PEPE Outperforms Bitcoin In Social Media Buzz, Triggers Bullish Run For Frog Coin The current levels of the metric are also only slightly lesser than what the April 2019 rally, a rally that bears many similarities with the current one, saw during its top. Obviously, it’s hard to say anything about the top based on these observations alone, as tops have historically not followed any set pattern of the indicator, unlike the bottoms. However, the current values still likely imply that the price has become quite overheated recently, which may mean that even if a top isn’t in yet, it may be close nonetheless. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $27,300, down 2% in the last week. BTC has surged during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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Bitcoin To Top Above $168,500 Based On This Indicator, Analyst Reveals

An analyst has explained how Bitcoin could see a top beyond the $168,500 mark based on the historical trend in this indicator. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Could Reveal Location Of Next Price Top In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed where the BTC top could lie based on the Mayer Multiple. The “Mayer Multiple” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the Bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average (MA). The 200-day MA has historically proven to be a significant level for BTC, often serving as the boundary between bearish and bullish trends. As such, the distance of the price from this MA, which is what the Mayer Multiple measures, can be useful to watch. Related Reading: XRP Could Be The Altcoin To Recover Quickly, CryptoQuant Analyst Explains Why When the Mayer Multiple has a high value, it means the asset is trading significantly above the 200-day MA, which could imply potential overbought conditions. On the other hand, the metric being low could suggest a bullish reversal may be due for BTC. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple represented as an oscillator over the history of the cryptocurrency: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is currently around halfway to the level that has usually signaled overheated conditions for the coin’s price. The level in question is situated at the 2.4 mark. When the metric assumes this value, the price of the asset becomes 2.4 times the 200-day MA. In the same chart, a price line corresponding to this level is also shown. It’s apparent that Bitcoin formed some of its major historical tops when it broke through the line. So far in the current cycle, Bitcoin hasn’t been able to retest the level yet. And it may not be able to do so for a while, either since the Mayer Multiple would only equal 2.4 when the cryptocurrency’s price rises to around the $168,500 level. Related Reading: XRP, Solana Among Altcoins Witnessing TD Buy Signal, Analyst Reveals An important level relevant to the Mayer Multiple that BTC did retest during this cycle was the 0.8 line. Just like the 2.4 level serves as a signal for potential overheated conditions, this line can imply the coin may be reaching a bottom. Bitcoin successfully found a rebound at the line earlier in the year, confirming that a transition towards a bear market hadn’t taken place yet. It now remains to be seen whether the asset would go on to retest the top level next or if another plunge to this bottom level will happen first. BTC Price Bitcoin slipped toward the $92,000 level on Friday, but it seems the asset has made some recovery since then, as it sits at $96,000 to kick off the new week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin price has legs above $100K despite holders booking record profits Analysis

The Bitcoin market has yet to reach the unsustainable euphoria typically observed at the peaks of previous BTC price bull runs.

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Bitcoin Top Here? What Historical HODLer Selloff Pattern Says

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders are selling. Here’s whether the current level of selloff is enough for a price top or not. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Selling Big Recently In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed about the historical trend in the holdings of the long-term holders relative to the Bitcoin top. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for more than 155 days. The LTHs represent one of the two main divisions of the BTC market done on the basis of holding time, with the other group being known as the short-term holders (STHs). Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Now In Selling Mode For A Year: Should You Be Concerned? Historically, the latter cohort has proven to contain the weak hands of the market, while the former is made up of the HODLers who barely react to rallies and crashes in the price. As such, selling from the STHs is usually not of any note, but that from the LTHs can be, as it’s not a particularly common event. One way to keep track of the behavior of the diamond hands is through their Net Position Change. The Net Position Change is an on-chain metric that measures the total amount of Bitcoin entering into or exiting out of the LTH cohort. Below is the chart for the indicator shared by the analyst that shows the trend in its value over the history of the cryptocurrency. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change has witnessed a sharp decline into the negative territory in recent weeks, which implies a net amount of supply has been leaving the cohort. This isn’t the first time this year that the indicator has shown this trend, as something similar was also observed back during the first quarter of this year. In the chart, Martinez has highlighted this and the other older instances of this trend occurring. It would seem that the major selloffs from the LTHs have generally coincided with some sort of top in the cryptocurrency. “Interestingly, in 2017 and 2021, their biggest sell-offs occurred right before the final leg up,” notes the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives Market Heating Up Again: Brace For Impact? Thus, if the current bull market is going to show anything similar, then it’s possible that the current LTH selloff may in fact only be the start of that final leg up that’s going to lead to the cyclical top for Bitcoin. The indicator is also currently not as negative as during the largest red spikes of the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, which could be another indication that the top isn’t in just yet. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the same pattern would repeat this time as well or not. BTC Price Bitcoin is back in all-time high (ATH) discovery mode as its price has just set a new record above the $107,000 milestone. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Holder Profits Now 121%: How Much Higher Can BTC Go?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin investors are now carrying 121% profits on average. Here’s whether this has been enough for a top in the past. Bitcoin Profitability Index Is Currently Sitting Around 221% In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index. The “Average Profitability Index” is an indicator for BTC that compares the asset’s spot value with its realized price. The “realized price” here refers to a measure of the cost basis or acquisition value of the average investor in the Bitcoin market. This metric’s value is determined using on-chain data, with the last price at which each coin in circulation was transacted on the blockchain being taken as its current cost basis. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Enters Danger Zone: Investors Now Extremely Greedy When the Average Profitability Index is greater than 100%, it means the spot price of the cryptocurrency is currently higher than its realized price. Such a trend suggests the average investor is holding a net amount of profit. On the other hand, the indicator being under this threshold implies the BTC market as a whole is carrying coins at a net unrealized loss. Naturally, the index being exactly equal to 100% indicates the holders as a whole are just breaking-even on their investment. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index over the past decade: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index has registered a notable increase recently as the cryptocurrency’s run to the new all-time high (ATH) price has occurred. The indicator has now reached a value of around 221%, which suggests the investors are in a significant amount of gains. More particularly, the BTC addresses as a whole are in a net profit of 121%. Generally, the higher the profits of the holders get, the more likely they become to fall to the allure of profit-taking. The current Average Profitability Index level is high, but it’s uncertain if it’s high enough for a mass selloff to become a risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Ready For Phase 2 Of This Historical Bull Pattern In the chart, the analyst has marked how high the metric went at the time of the tops of the previous bull runs. It would appear that 2017 peaked at 460%, while 2021 at 395%. So far in the current cycle, the highest that the index has gone was 272%, which happened during the top back in March of this year. Given the fact that the indicator is yet to hit this level, let alone the peaks from the last cycles, it’s possible that Bitcoin still has sufficient room to run, before a top becomes probable. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $76,200, up more than 9% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Profitability Index Hits 202%: Is This Enough For A Top?

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Profitability Index is at 202% right now. Here’s how this compares with past bull runs of the asset. Bitcoin Average Profitability Index Has Been Rising Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. discussed the latest trend in the Average Profitability Index of Bitcoin. The “Average Profitability Index” is an on-chain indicator that tells us about how the spot price of the asset compares against its realized price. Related Reading: Ethereum Leverage Ratio Reaches Extreme Levels, What It Means The “realized price” here is a measure of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin network. The Average Profitability Index is calculated as a percentage, with the 100% mark corresponding to the spot price being equal to the realized price. When the value of this indicator is greater than 100%, it means the asset is currently trading above the cost basis of the average investor, so the overall market could be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it being under this cutoff suggests the holders as a whole are carrying their coins at a net unrealized loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index has been above 100% since last year, which suggests the investors as a whole have been enjoying profits. The indicator’s value had spiked to particularly high values earlier in this year when the rally towards the new all-time high (ATH) had occurred. With the latest recovery run that the coin has seen, the indicator has been picking up once again, although it’s still a notable distance away from the level seen during the ATH. At present, the BTC Average Profitability Index is floating around 202%, which implies the spot price is double that of the realized price. Historically, the indicator reaching extreme levels has generally led to tops for the asset. This is because the investors’ temptation to participate in profit-taking increases the larger their gains. “When the index rises above 300%, investors are likely to start taking profits actively,” notes the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Active Addresses Finally Growing Again: Bullish Sign? The chart shows that the last two times that the Bitcoin Average Profitability Index surpassed this 300% mark was during the heights of the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. Thus, according to this historical pattern, Bitcoin’s current bullish period may not end until the indicator enters the zone above 300%. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $67,400, up 1% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin Extreme Greed Is Nearly Here: Will This Lead To A Top?

Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment has nearly turned to extreme greed as the cryptocurrency’s price has rallied to the $68,000 mark. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Currently Inside The Greed Region The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in [...]

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