Bitcoin price to $62K? Bearish div hints at a slow start to Uptober

Bitcoin open interest is testing a yearly high range of $35B while spot volumes remain skewed towards the sell side, indicating higher downside volatility. 

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3 Reasons Bitcoin Price Rally Is At Risk Details

Bitcoin emerged as an investors favorite this past week, recording a price rise of 4.07% according to data from CoinMarketCap. During this price surge, the premier cryptocurrency traded as high as $66,000, a level last reached in late July. However, despite this price gain which extends Bitcoins unusual positive performance in September, certain market conditions indicate concern over the sustainability of this rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Biggest September Gains In A Decade: Heres Why Why Bitcoins Rally Is In Danger In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username Wenry outlined several reasons Bitcoin may not sustain its current upward trend. Firstly, Wenry notes that there is a lack of interest from retail investors in Korea and the US as indicated by a stagnant Taker volume. This status is different from previous Bitcoin price rallies where retail activity in these countries was prominent. Therefore, the analyst postulates that the current price surge is devoid of new investments and is likely driven by a select group of market participants. Furthermore, Wenry highlights there is currently a high level of Open Interest in the BTC market, but the asset continues to move in a range-bound market i.e. consolidation due to a low spot volume. The combination of both factors reflects the absence of a significant buying interest in Bitcoin despite the present rally.   Another point of concern raised by Wenry states the current Bitcoin price gain is caused by a rise in derivatives trading due to macroeconomic factors such as the reduction of interest rates. The crypto analyst pinpoints a lack of equal support from the spot market therefore, the rally is likely a temporal uptick rather than a structural market shift. In conclusion, Wenry states that the absence of significant spot market volume, a stagnant Taker volume, and low retail participation all threaten the longevity of Bitcoins current rally. Notably, if retail investors remain away from the market, Bitcoin would likely remain in consolidation or even experience a price correction. Related Reading: Analyst Backs Bitcoin Hitting $290,000 In Bull Run Heres Why Bitcoin To Break All-Time High In Q4?  On another front, popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe has backed Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high price of $73,750 in the last quarter of 2024, following a similar trajectory with gold. Van de Poppes prediction seems quite plausible as Q4 is traditionally the most bullish moment for Bitcoin. In addition, the renowned analyst is also backing altcoins to experience a 3-5x price surge in the same period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $65,810 following a 0.40% gain in the last day. In tandem, the assets daily trading volume is down 53.16% and valued at $65,649.  Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview

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Bitcoin Breaks $66,000, But Analyst Warns Against Fresh LongsHeres Why

Bitcoin has shown bullish momentum during the past day, but an analyst has pointed out how the asset may be in a high-risk zone now due to the Open Interest trend. Bitcoin Open Interest Has Seen A Rapid Increase Recently As explained by CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Open Interest has just surged to high levels. The “Open Interest” is an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of BTC-related positions currently open on all derivatives exchanges. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Rallies 34%, But Will FOMO End The Rally? When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the derivatives market right now. As the overall leverage in the sector increases when this trend occurs, it can lead to higher asset price volatility. On the other hand, the indicator heading down suggests the derivatives contract holders are either closing up positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. This kind of trend can lead to more stability for BTC. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest had cooled off to relatively low levels earlier in the month as the asset’s price crashed. With the recovery in the coin, however, the indicator has been noting growth again. The indicator is now high, potentially implying the market has become overleveraged. As mentioned earlier, a high metric value can lead to more volatility for BTC. The reason behind this is that mass liquidation events can become more probable to occur at these levels, making the price act more volatile. On paper, the volatility emerging from an Open Interest increase can take the coin in either direction, but BTC has shown a consistent pattern in the past year. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, the indicator entering into the same zone as now has generally turned out to be bearish for Bitcoin in this window. Related Reading: Render (RENDER) Shows 23% Surge As Sharks & Whales Continue To Buy In these instances, the Open Interest surge had occurred alongside price surges, indicating that long positions had been piling up. The latest growth in the indicator has also naturally come similarly. “We’re in a high-risk zone, and in my opinion, it’s not the best time for fresh long positions,” notes Maartunn. It remains to be seen how Bitcoin develops in the coming days and if it will hit the top, just like it did during those other instances. BTC Price Following the rally in the past day, Bitcoin has managed to find a break above the $66,000 level for the first time in almost two months Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Dogecoin Open interest Remains Muted Below $500 Million, Whats Going On?

With the market recovery, open interest in major assets has been rising, but it seems Dogecoin is not following this trend. The meme coin has remained muted with a failure to move like other large caps such as Bitcoin and Solana. Naturally, the direction of open interest can have an impact on the performance of Dogecoins price. So, what could this muted open interest mean for the meme coins price going forward? Dogecoin Open Interest Fails To Move According to data from the Coinglass website, the Dogecoin open interest has failed to surpass the $500 million level once again. On Thursday, the Dogecoin open interest was $493.97 million, which is a long way from its all-time high. This comes even as the meme coins open interest surged 6.9% in the 24-hour period, with notable jumps across crypto exchange such as OKX and Bitget. Related Reading: October To Remember: Descending Broadening Wedge Says Bitcoin Is Going To $90,000 Despite this increase, the Dogecoin open interest is still firmly below its August highs. The open interest started out in August above $618 million. However, since then, it has remained muted, suggesting that crypto traders have turned their attention elsewhere. Even more concerning is the fact that the open interest is more than 70% below its all-time high from March 2024. On March 29, 2024, the Dogecoin open interest had reached a new peak of $2.21 billion. But since then, the open interest has been seeing a steady decline. At Thursdays figures of $498 million, the DOGE open interest is now seeing a 77% decline from its Marchs figures. Why This Decline Could Be Good For DOGE The open interest gives the total of the open options or futures contracts in the market for a particular digital asset. Basically, it helps investors to tell if traders are betting heavily on the recovery or decline of a cryptocurrency or not. Related Reading: XRP Price Prediction: Crypto Pundit Predicts Historical 9,468% Pump To $27 Given Dogecoins data, it shows that traders are not exactly focused on the meme coin as they used to be. However, this is not always a bad thing, as periods of low open interest have often marked market bottoms. The low open interest usually gives investors a good time to enter into the coin, as the price often declines with the open interest. As the Bitcoin price recovers, it is expected that the Dogecoin price will follow, and when the open interest begins to recover, the DOGE price is expected to grow rapidly with it. A similar scenario was witnessed back in January 2024, with the open interest marking a bottom somewhere around $300 million. However, over the next few months, the open interest rose more than 630%, triggering an over 100% price surge for Dogecoin. If the same scenario plays out here, then the DOGE price could double once more. This would put the price firmly above the $0.2 level, especially with a bull run expected in the last quarter of the year. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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Is Chainlink (LINK) $12 Breakout Imminent? Data Reveals A Rising Open Interest

Chainlink is in a consolidation phase after weeks of volatility and selling pressure. The price currently holds above a support level of $10, a crucial liquidity level. The altcoin attracts the attention of analysts and investors who anticipate higher prices soon.  Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Surges Past $130 Resistance As Funding Rate Signals Bullish Momentum Data from Santiment reveals rising open interest, which signals sustained demand for Chainlink. As more traders and investors build positions, this increase in open interest suggests that a price rally could be on the horizon. This stabilization around the $10 mark has given some confidence to those who believe LINK may be poised for a breakout. Many analysts see this as a potential turning point for Chainlink, with its current price action reflecting growing optimism for future gains. If the consolidation holds and momentum builds, LINK could potentially push past its recent resistance and aim for higher levels. Chainlink Investors Showing Confidence  Chainlink is testing key supply at its current levels, and top traders and investors are confident in a potential rise for LINK in the coming weeks. One significant indicator signaling strength is the rising Open Interest (OI), as revealed by Santiment. OI tracks the number of active contracts tied to a cryptocurrency, serving as a reflection of market engagement. When OI increases, it signals growing liquidity and interest in the market, while a decrease in OI typically points to reduced exposure. From a price analysis perspective, a rise in OI combined with a price dip often confirms a continuing downtrend. On the other hand, if OI decreases while the price rises, it may signal a bearish reversal. In Chainlinks case, both OI and price are increasing, which suggests that the current uptrend could persist. As investors monitor the market, many are waiting for price confirmation above current levels to keep the momentum going and shift the overall negative sentiment that has clouded Chainlink in recent weeks. Related Reading: Cardano (ADA) Rally Brewing? On-Chain Metrics Suggest Investors Optimism LINKs breakout could fuel a bullish run, as traders expect a more bullish trajectory in the short term. The rising OI serves as a strong indicator that market participants are increasingly confident in LINK’s potential for further gains. LINK Price Testing Supply At $10.8 Chainlink (LINK) is trading at $10.40 after testing local resistance at $10.83, positioning for a potential breakout toward higher prices. The price is struggling to clear the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) at $10.71, a key indicator that has acted as a resistance since late August. For bulls to maintain momentum, LINK must reclaim the 4H 200 MA and target the next resistance at $12.70. Breaking past this level would signal a reversal and could lead to a more sustained uptrend, offering investors hope for further gains. However, if LINK fails to break through the 4H 200 MA, the altcoin will likely face a pullback, with support anticipated at lower demand levels around $9.30. A failure to hold this support could result in even lower prices, reinforcing the downside risk for traders. Related Reading: Avalanche (AVAX) Ready To Target $28: Investors Expect A Reversal The coming days will be crucial for LINKs price trajectory as the battle between bulls and bears intensifies. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Solana, Ethereum Attract Traders Amid Bitcoin Open Interest Plunge

Data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) Open Interest plummeted during the latest market retrace, but Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) have been resilient. Solana & Ethereum Open Interest Has Only Seen A Mild Retrace According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, Bitcoin has seen its Open Interest plunge after the pullback in its price. The “Open Interest” here refers to a metric that keeps track of the total amount of derivatives positions related to a given asset (in USD) currently open on all exchanges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $64,000, But This Pattern Could Mean Bull Run Isnt Safe When the value of this metric goes up, investors will be opening new positions in the derivatives market right now. As new positions generally suggest a rise of total leverage in the market, the Open Interest registering this trend can lead to more volatility for the cryptocurrency’s price. On the other hand, the indicator observing a decline implies some investors are either closing up their positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. The asset tends to behave more stably once such a decrease goes through. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Open Interest for three top coins in the sector, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest has dropped around 7.5% in the past day. The reason behind this plunge will likely be the asset’s retrace to levels under $63,000. Interestingly, while Ethereum and Solana have registered similar price drawdowns inside this window, the Open Interest is only down around 2% for both of them. It’s possible that Bitcoin was simply the most leveraged of these assets, so the relatively small price drop was enough to cause significant liquidations. There are also some other possibilities, however. The investors may be more interested in the altcoins right now, choosing to close down BTC-related positions and opening up more positions related to alts like Solana and Ethereum. It’s hard to say whether this increased appetite for speculation around Solana and Ethereum relative to Bitcoin is a positive for the market. Still, it does set these coins up to see some action shortly. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops & Bottoms Occur When This Metric Spikes, Analytics Firm Reveals On the topic of liquidations, data from CoinGlass has revealed the exact figures related to the Open Interest flush the cryptocurrency sector has witnessed in the last 24 hours. The table shows that $107 million in cryptocurrency derivatives contracts have found liquidation during the past day, with over $88 million of these coming from the long contract holders alone. SOL Price At the time of writing, Solana is trading around $156, up almost 7% over the past week. Featured image from Shutterstock.com, CoinGlass.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

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Ethereum Open Interest Drops 40% In August Whats Happening?

Several large-cap assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, struggled to make a mark in the past week, as the general market suffered a steep downturn in prices. According to various analyses, the market was negatively impacted by some recent macro developments in different countries. This significant decline has had a widespread effect on the market sentiment, with most investors now treading cautiously. This can be seen with the recent drop in Ethereum open interest, which could hold serious implications for the price of ETH. Ethereum Open Interest Declines By $6 Billion Impact On Price? According to the latest report by blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the Ethereum open interest has fallen by more than 40% (approximately $6 billion) in the month of August. The open interest metric refers to an indicator that measures the total number of derivatives positions of a cryptocurrency (ETH, in this case) currently open on all centralized exchanges. Related Reading: More Pain Ahead: Analyst Warns Of Imminent Bitcoin Plunge Below $54,000 To Fill CME Gap An increase in this indicators value implies that investors are opening up new positions in the futures and options market at that given time. It basically indicates that investors are pouring money into ETH derivatives at the time. When the metric falls, on the other hand, it means that derivatives traders are closing their positions or getting liquidated in the market. As shown in the chart above, the Ethereum open interest has been in a downward trend since the start of August, bottoming out on Monday following the general market downturn. According to data from CryptoQuant, the open interest of ETH stands at around $7.67 billion, as of this writing. Although it has demonstrated some good signs of recovery in the past day, a low open interest does not look healthy for the Ethereum price especially if viewed from a historical standpoint. Decreased positions in the derivatives markets could cause a fall in liquidity, which could lead to substantial price fluctuations due to market inefficiency. At the same time, the falling open interest could dampen volatility in the Ethereum market in the short term, especially as fewer investors are betting on the ETH price. A low volatility suggests that the price of Ethereum might not witness any large movement any time soon. ETH Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Ethereum continues to hover around the $2,600 mark, reflecting an almost 4% decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the altcoins value is down by more than 13% in the last seven days. Related Reading: XRP Has Surpassed Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana Combined In This Metric Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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Bitcoin late longs washed out as BTC price falls to $65K

Bitcoin leveraged positions increased over the past week, and a portion of these late longs have been wiped out as BTC price dropped closer to $65,000.

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Record $39.4B Bitcoin open interest suggests imminent price breakout

Open interest is often used to gauge the interest and liquidity behind an asset. In Bitcoins case, the surge in open interest could signal an imminent breakout.

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DOGE open interest up 19% amid price 'breaking out' to monthly high

Doge interest among future traders is ramping up amid the price breaking out to its highest in 34 days.

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Bitcoins rally rekindles the derivatives market

Changes in futures and options open interest provide insight into market sentiment, liquidity, and potential price movements. Futures and options reveal how traders position themselves and show their expectations for future price action. Open interest measures the flow of money, showing whether new capital is entering or exiting the market. Looking at open interest, we […]

The post Bitcoin’s rally rekindles the derivatives market appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Calls dominate Bitcoin options despite price drop and ETF outflows

While the usual volatility has been absent from the derivatives market, the slight fluctuations seen in the past few days still managed to reveal subtle market trends. Between June 12 and June 14, Bitcoin options open interest increased $20.85 billion on June 12 to $21.91 billion on June 13, before decreasing to $21.42 billion on […]

The post Calls dominate Bitcoin options despite price drop and ETF outflows appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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$1.35B in Bitcoin options expire this week Do BTC bulls or bears have the upper hand?

This weeks Bitcoin options expiry sits at $1.35 billion, but what is the expected impact on BTC price?

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Bitcoin Relative Open Interest Lowest Since Feb, Analyst Says Hard To Be Bearish

Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest as a percentage of its market cap has been at lows recently, a sign the derivatives side has been healthy. Bitcoin Open Interest Is Now Less Than 2% Of The Market Cap As explained by analyst James Van Straten in a new post on X, the derivatives side of the market has looked “extremely healthy” while BTC’s latest recovery has occurred. The metric of interest here is the “Open Interest,” which keeps track of the total amount of derivatives-based Bitcoin positions that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. Related Reading: XRP Forms On-Chain Signal That Led To 16% Crash Last Time When the value of this indicator goes up, it means that the investors are opening up more positions on the market right now. Generally, the total leverage in the market rises when such a trend takes place, so the price of the asset could end up turning more volatile following it. On the other hand, a decline in the metric suggests users are either closing up their positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. The cryptocurrency may behave in a more stable manner following such a decrease. Now, here here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past few years: The value of the metric seems to have been going down in recent days | Source: @jvs_btc on X In the graph, the Open Interest is displayed as a percentage of the asset’s market cap (that is, the total valuation of the entire BTC circulating supply at the current spot price). It would appear that the indicator has registered a drawdown recently and has slipped under the 2% mark. This would suggest that the positions on the derivatives market now make up for less than 2% of the market cap. From the chart, it’s visible that the metric had earlier spiked to a high as the coin’s rally towards a new all-time high had taken place. Interestingly, the market cap was rapidly going up in this rally, but this ratio was still trending up, implying that speculation had been growing at a rate faster than the price. This may have been a sign that the derivatives side was starting to become overheated. In the drawdown that had followed the price top, the investors had started getting liquidated, leading to the ratio registering a decline. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Says Cardano Ready For A Parabolic Bull Run, Heres Why The most recent price drop had helped reset the market further, bringing the ratio down to levels not seen since February. Bitcoin has been mounting a recovery effort in the past few days, but so far, the derivatives market has remained cool. “Hard to be bearish here,” says the analyst. It now remains to be seen if the health of the market would continue to look optimistic in the coming days, thus potentially allowing for the recovery to go a step further. BTC Price Bitcoin had returned back above $65,500 earlier, but the asset has since seen a small pullback as it’s now down to $64,100. Looks like the price of the asset has been heading up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from André François McKenzie on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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$8.2B in Bitcoin and Ether options expire, heres how it could impact the markets

The total OI notional value for all outstanding BTC options contracts is $19 billion.

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3 reasons why Ethereum is stuck below $3,900

Factors include uncertainty in the spot Ethereum ETF launch, high ETF futures open interest, and stagnant Ethereum network usage.

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Bitcoin futures open interest reaches a 16-month high: $70,000 granted?

BTC derivatives show moderate bullishness, paving the way for further gains above $70,000.

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Altcoin Season Soon? Quant Says This Ethereum Pattern Could Suggest So

A quant has explained how a pattern currently forming in the Ethereum Open Interest could imply the altcoin season is coming “sooner than expected.” Altcoin Season May Be Approaching Soon Based On Ethereum Pattern In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about why an altcoin season may be coming soon for the cryptocurrency sector, based on a trend taking place in a couple of Ethereum and Bitcoin indicators. The first metric of relevance here is the “Open Interest,” which keeps track of the total amount of derivatives positions related to a given asset currently open on all centralized exchanges. Related Reading: Shiba Inu One Of The Most-Traded Tokens By Whales, Data Shows When the value of this metric goes up, it means the speculators are opening up fresh positions for the coin right now. On the other hand, a decline implies the users are either closing up their positions of their own volition or getting forcibly liquidated by their platform. Now, here is a chart that shows how the trend in the Open Interest has compared between Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Open Interest has been moving more or less sideways recently, while at the same time, the metric has registered growth for Ethereum. This would suggest that ETH has been seeing more appetite for derivatives market contracts than the original cryptocurrency recently. One of the driving factors behind this could be the news cycle related to the approval of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the asset. In the same chart, the quant has also attached the data for another indicator: the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR). This metric measures the ratio between the Open Interest and the Exchange Reserve for any asset. The latter is naturally the total amount of the coin that’s currently sitting in the wallets of all centralized exchanges. The ELR basically provides us with information about the amount of leverage that the average user in the derivatives market is opting for right now. From the graph, it’s visible that this ratio has seen a surge for Ethereum recently but has been showing flat action for Bitcoin. Thus, it would appear that not only has ETH been seeing more speculative interest than BTC recently, but also these users opening contracts are going for higher risk as they are taking on more leverage. Related Reading: Analyst Says Only A Matter Of Time Before Bitcoin Flies Past ATH The analyst believes that the fact that Ethereum has overtaken Bitcoin in these indicators could be a potential sign that an altcoin season may be approaching soon. “If Ethereums price continues to consolidate in the current range, its very possible that the altcoin season will start sooner than expected,” notes the quant. It now remains to be seen how things play out in the market in the near future, given this shift of trend. ETH Price After seeing a slowdown earlier, Ethereum has been back on track in the past couple of days as its price has now climbed back above the $3,900 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin and Ether options worth $2.7B set to expire

The upcoming 21,000 contract expiry is dwarfed by the significantly larger $4.3 billion options expiry on May 31, according to Deribit.

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Why is Ether (ETH) price up today?

Ether price is up today as interest in the spot ETH ETF in Hong Kong and investors expectation of a looser monetary policy in the U.S. boosted sentiment.

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