Nov 08, 2022 08:55
It's election day in America, for those unfamiliar with US politics, this one is a 'mid term' - no new President will be selected, but seats in virtually all other elected rolls are up for grabs.
All 435 members of the House of Representatives and 34 senators are running. According to media reports, political action committees and bitcoin lobbyists have contributed millions of dollars to candidates races.
As of two weeks ago, crypto-related donors had given more money than the traditional big election spenders - surpassing both defense and big pharma.
The industry expected 2022 would be the year policymakers came up with a plan for regulating crypto - that didn't happen...
Unresolved policy disputes between lawmakers and lobbyists left this unfinished, as Congressmembers and Senators left Washington DC until the new year.
That means those elected today are virtually guaranteed to be the ones voting on crypto regulation in the near future.
Crypto becomes a mainstream topic for voters...
According to a poll by Grayscale early October, 38% of voters said candidates "crypto policy positions" mattered to them when deciding who to vote for.
Another poll by the Crypto Council for Innovation, taken around the same time, had 45% of voters agreeing that lawmakers should "treat crypto as a serious and valid part of the economy."
The ideal outcome for crypto...
Most crypto traders want a Republican majority in either or both chambers, since Republicans have been some of their most loyal supporters in the past.
The Republicans have also indicated the willingness to move bills that many in the industry say create a reasonable regulated environment, where protections for investors can be implemented without slowing down the progress of a fast growing industry.
"We believe crypto is one of the few sectors we follow where the midterms will have a material impact on policy. Republicans tend to be more accepting of fewer limits on crypto products because they are decentralized and different - We believe a GOP sweep of the midterm elections would be the best outcome for crypto" said Jaret Seiberg, an analyst at financial services company Cowen.
Generally favoring less government involvement in free markets, Republicans would also likely put pressure on agencies like the SEC stop over-aggressive regulation of crypto firms and seek reasonable regulation aimed at protecting investors.
A history of bipartisan support...
While crypto does have a history of finding supporters from both major parties, many see the Democrats as 'dropping the ball'. Some expressed the desire for what sounded like reasonable solutions to the regulation issues, some even co-authored bills with Republicans.
But at the end of the day, they had 2 years where they held most of the power, and nothing was accomplished.
Then, with some opinions from members of the Biden administration that sounded like they don't understand the basics of what crypto is, many who consider crypto an important issue switched to a firm "Republicans only' stance this election.
The crypto industry may get their wish...
Polls are indicating that Republicans will take back the House and probably the Senate as well.
A common prediction from crypto traders on multiple platforms right now is that a Republican win of both the House and Senate tonight could immediately trigger some market movement upward, we'll probably soon see if they're correct.
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Author: Ross Davis
Silicon Valley Newsroom
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