3 Reasons Bitcoin Price Rally Is At Risk Details

Bitcoin emerged as an investors favorite this past week, recording a price rise of 4.07% according to data from CoinMarketCap. During this price surge, the premier cryptocurrency traded as high as $66,000, a level last reached in late July. However, despite this price gain which extends Bitcoins unusual positive performance in September, certain market conditions indicate concern over the sustainability of this rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Biggest September Gains In A Decade: Heres Why Why Bitcoins Rally Is In Danger In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username Wenry outlined several reasons Bitcoin may not sustain its current upward trend. Firstly, Wenry notes that there is a lack of interest from retail investors in Korea and the US as indicated by a stagnant Taker volume. This status is different from previous Bitcoin price rallies where retail activity in these countries was prominent. Therefore, the analyst postulates that the current price surge is devoid of new investments and is likely driven by a select group of market participants. Furthermore, Wenry highlights there is currently a high level of Open Interest in the BTC market, but the asset continues to move in a range-bound market i.e. consolidation due to a low spot volume. The combination of both factors reflects the absence of a significant buying interest in Bitcoin despite the present rally.   Another point of concern raised by Wenry states the current Bitcoin price gain is caused by a rise in derivatives trading due to macroeconomic factors such as the reduction of interest rates. The crypto analyst pinpoints a lack of equal support from the spot market therefore, the rally is likely a temporal uptick rather than a structural market shift. In conclusion, Wenry states that the absence of significant spot market volume, a stagnant Taker volume, and low retail participation all threaten the longevity of Bitcoins current rally. Notably, if retail investors remain away from the market, Bitcoin would likely remain in consolidation or even experience a price correction. Related Reading: Analyst Backs Bitcoin Hitting $290,000 In Bull Run Heres Why Bitcoin To Break All-Time High In Q4?  On another front, popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe has backed Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high price of $73,750 in the last quarter of 2024, following a similar trajectory with gold. Van de Poppes prediction seems quite plausible as Q4 is traditionally the most bullish moment for Bitcoin. In addition, the renowned analyst is also backing altcoins to experience a 3-5x price surge in the same period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $65,810 following a 0.40% gain in the last day. In tandem, the assets daily trading volume is down 53.16% and valued at $65,649.  Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview

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Social Media Screams Sell As Bitcoin Crashes To $54,000: Buy Signal?

Data shows users on social media platforms have been calling to sell Bitcoin after its latest crash, a signal that contrarian traders may be waiting for. Bitcoin Sentiment On Social Media Has Turned Quite Bearish According to data from the analytics firm Santiment, social media is showing historic levels of FUD amid the market drawdown. The indicator of interest here is the “Social Volume,” which basically tells us about the degree of discussion around a given topic or term that users on the major social media platforms are currently participating in. This metric works by going through posts/threads/messages on these platforms to look for mentions of the keyword. The indicator then counts up the number of posts that contain at least one such mention. Related Reading: Bitcoin Traders Sink Into Fear As Price Crashes Below $58,000 The reason the Social Volume doesn’t simply count up the mentions themselves is that mentions alone don’t contain any information about if the trend is being followed across social media as a whole. Sometimes, for example, mentions can be high for a topic, but most of them could be limited to niche circles (that is, inside a few posts). The Social Volume naturally wouldn’t spike in this case, but it would when users across the platforms are making posts about the term. Now, what the analytics firm has done here is that it has applied terms related to sentiment to Social Volume, to differentiate between discussions related to positive and negative sentiments. Here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows how the Social Volume for negative and positive sentiments has changed alongside the recent Bitcoin volatility: To discern the sentiment, the analytics firm has chosen terms such as buy, bottom, and bullish in the case of positive sentiment, and sell, top, and bearish for negative sentiment. From the graph, it’s visible that the Social Volume for the latter type of keywords has observed a huge spike alongside the plunge in the Bitcoin price. This would imply that a large amount of bearish posts have popped up on social media. The indicator has also spiked for terms pertaining to positive sentiment, but clearly, the scale has been lesser than the one for bearish terms. In fact, the latest ratio between sell and buy calls has actually been the largest observed in the year so far. Thus, it would appear that social media users as a whole are feeling FUD towards Bitcoin. This may actually be a positive development for the cryptocurrency, however, as its price has historically been more likely to move in the opposite direction to what the crowd expects. Related Reading: Why Did Bitcoin Plunge Under $58,000? On-Chain Data Says This As is apparent in the chart, buying calls had spiked on a few occasions following price plunges in the past month, but this optimism had only led to a continued decline for the asset. With the latest crash, sentiment appears to have finally flipped, with Bitcoin traders starting to give up. “For bold traders, this is a window that some may wish to be a true contrarian and buy into the crowd’s anger and frustration,” notes Santiment. BTC Price Bitcoin had briefly slipped under the $54,000 level during the plunge, but the asset appears to have bounced back to $55,400 since then. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

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Crypto Exchange Volumes Dip 20% in June, But Huobi Bucks the Trend

The pastsix months could have been some of the most significant in Bitcoin's history.However, the continuing decline in prices from historical highs has led toreduced investor activity, resulting in a 20% decrease in average spot volumesamong the largest digital asset exchanges. Compared to June 2023, the resultfor the last month was still more than double.

Crypto Spot Volumes DownMonthly, Yet Growing Annually

June sawthe third consecutive month of declines in spot volumes for the top tencryptocurrency exchanges, dropping to $812 billion from over $1 trillionreported in May.

Accordingto Finance Magnates Intelligence, the month-over-month depreciationaveraged almost 20% in June 2023. Nearly all the exchanges analyzed reporteddecreases. OKX, for example, lost 26%, falling from third place and now out ofthe top rankings.

Huobi tookadvantage of the situation, being the only one to overcome the adverse markettrend and achieve a modest increase in volume by 6% to $72.1 billion.

Yet, as inprevious months, the monthly declines do not reflect the annual condition.Year-on-year volumes are still higher, growing by 120% compared to June 2023,when they stood at $422 billion.

The ranking leaders grew by more than threefold annually, as seen with ByBit and evenfivefold in the case of Huobi.

The CEXindustry has experienced significant growth in 2024. Total aggregate spotvolumes have reached $10.6 trillion in the first half of 2024, compared to$4.32 trillion in the second half of 2023, a 145% increase and demonstratingthe resilience of this sub-sector compared to others within the broaderindustry, commented CCData.

Binance Continues to Leadthe Way

Binance andByBit remain the two largest exchanges by spot volumes. Binance's market sharemodestly decreased by 2 percentage points to 54%, while ByBit's grew by thesame amount to 14%.

OKX,meanwhile, dropped out of the top three and was replaced by Huobi, which now accountsfor 9% of the market share. Binance, ByBit, and Huobi currently account forover 75% of the total turnover among the top ten exchanges by spot volumes.Binance also recently reported that it surpassed the 200 million user mark.

Thecryptocurrency market is now entering a quarter that historically has been oneof the worst for Bitcoin returns. The oldest cryptocurrency barely held aboveits February lows, bouncing back from the $53,000 level.

Throughoutthe summer, significant selling pressure may persist on digital assets, drivenby the monetary policies of major central banks and the liquidation of assetsbelonging to Mt. Gox.

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Despite heavy outflows, CEXs continue to be pillars of liquidity

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The post Despite heavy outflows, CEXs continue to be pillars of liquidity appeared first on CryptoSlate.

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Solana (SOL) Surges 18%, But Watch Out For Crowd FOMO

Solana has been showing a breakout over the last few days, but data shows crowd FOMO is rising, which could be a bad sign for the rally. Solana Social Volume Has Shot Up Alongside The Rally According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the SOL social volume has observed a sharp increase following the recent recovery of cryptocurrency. The “Social Volume” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the degree of discussion that any given asset receives on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: Retail Losing Interest In Bitcoin? Volume Plunges 30% This metric makes this measurement by counting up the unique number of posts/threads/messages, making at least one mention of the cryptocurrency. The indicator doesn’t simply count up the mentions themselves because sometimes a large number of mentions can crop up within a couple of posts, while at the same time, the discussion could be more or less dead on the rest of social media. The high mentions would suggest a lot of discussion in this case, but in reality, the talk is all contained within niche circles. By measuring the number of posts, the Social Volume can tell us about the trend across social media. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Solana Social Volume over the past week or so: As is visible in the above graph, the Solana Social Volume has registered some rapid growth recently. This would imply that the intensity of discussions related to the asset has suddenly spiked. The driver behind this increase in the indicator is likely to be the rally that the coin’s price has enjoyed recently. In this new surge, SOL has recovered from a low of around $124 to the current $146 mark, meaning it has seen returns of almost 18% in just a few days. The Social Volume spiking alongside a rally isn’t unusual, as social media users find sharp price action exciting, so they participate in more discussions than normal. However, the scale of the spike that the metric has seen this time may be worth noting. Historically, the asset’s price has tended to move against the majority’s expectations, so too much excitement too suddenly can be a bearish sign for the cryptocurrency. In the same chart, Santiment has attached the Social Volume for Avalanche (AVAX) data, which has also witnessed a recovery run. It would appear that, unlike the Solana surge, few are paying attention to Avalanche’s rally, as the indicator’s value has remained relatively low. Related Reading: Bitcoin Near Euphoria Boundary: What Happens After A Breach? Therefore, AVAX’s rally could be more likely to be sustainable than SOL’s, as it has been seeing much less FOMO, at least according to the Social Volume. SOL Price Solana had broken past the $151 level yesterday, but the asset has since seen a minor pullback to $146. It’s currently unclear if this means that the negative effect of FOMO is already kicking in for SOL. Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

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