Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over? Analysts Warn of Volume Drop Signal
- Bitcoin peaked at $109,000 in January 2024, now hovering around $83,774, down 7% in a month.
- Crypto Dan warns of a second wave of volume decline, signaling potential market top and correction.
- Analyst Ali Martinez identifies $90,570 as a key price threshold, crucial for resuming the bull market.
Bitcoin hit a record high above $109,000 back in January 2024. But since that peak, momentum has faded. The price now hovers around $83,774, showing a drop of more than 7% just in the past month. This decline has triggered growing discussion among analysts about whether the markets recent bullish phase may be nearing its conclusion.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan has brought attention to a key metric: Bitcoins trading volume over the last six to twelve months. This data is often used to gauge how much capital is entering the crypto market at different stages of the cycle.
According to Dan, the metric tends to decline in two distinct waves. The first typically marks the end of the early bull phase, while the second, more significant drop often signals the markets peak.
In his analysis, Dan emphasized that the second wave of volume decline appears to be in progress, historically a signal of waning investor enthusiasm and speculative interest. Similar volume patterns in previous cycles have preceded major price corrections, leading some to interpret the current trend as a potential early warning of a cycle top.
Bitcoin reached a critical midpoint in March 2024, and it now appears to be heading towards the peak of this bull cycle, Dan noted.
Halving History Backs Bitcoin Bull Case
However, not all analysts share that view. Merlijn The Trader challenged the idea that Bitcoins bull run is approaching its end. Dont fade the data, he advised, pointing out that only 274 days have passed since the most recent halving event. Historically, Bitcoins price has peaked around 475 days after each halving, leaving approximately 201 days before the cycle might reach its typical top.
Merlijn backed his statement with a chart highlighting previous halving events and their corresponding price peaks. Each cycle, marked by consistent post-halving rallies, culminated near the 475-day mark. With Bitcoin currently priced around $83,000, he suggested that the current trajectory closely resembles those earlier cycles, reinforcing the possibility of further upside.
Another notable perspective came from analyst RektCapital, who highlighted developments in Bitcoins Relative Strength Index (RSI). He noted that the Monthly RSI level of 60 has historically acted as resistance during prior market peaks, such as in August 2019 and December 2020. In contrast, during this cycle, the same level is serving as support, potentially indicating continued strength in the market.
Reclaiming $90K Could Shift Sentiment
Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez pointed to the short-term holder (STH) realized price, currently at $90,570, as a critical threshold. In a recent post on X, Martinez stated that Bitcoin reclaiming this level would be a strong signal that the bull market is resuming. For now, Bitcoin remains below that level, which has historically signaled hesitation or consolidation.
According to a CryptoQuant chart shared by Martinez, Bitcoin has been unable to break above the STH realized price for several weeks. In previous cycles, a decisive move above this level has often triggered renewed buying momentum and broader confidence among both short-term and long-term investors. Without that recovery, caution may continue to dominate sentiment.
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Read more: https://www.tronweekly.com/is-the-bitcoin-bull-run-over/
Text source: TronWeekly
