Is Bitcoin Ready for a Bullish Breakout? Key Indicator Holds the Answer
Amid the ongoing bearish market, the Bitcoin short-term holder profitability is facing a key test once again.Bitcoin's short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) is hovering around the breakeven level of 1.0, according to the latest data from Glassnode. Historically, this threshold has acted as a momentum confirmation point. Specifically, a successful break above 1.0 signals renewed bullish strength, while failure often leads to renewed selling pressure.The last time Bitcoin's STH-SOPR broke above 1.0 was in early January. However, the subsequent Bitcoin rally was short-lived, indicating weak conviction among short-term holders. Now, with the metric testing this level again, all eyes are on whether BTC can sustain a move higher.At press time, Bitcoin is hovering at $95,500, down 1% over the past day. At this price, its 30-day performance shows a significant 9% decline.Assessing Bitcoin Probability for a BreakoutTo gauge the likelihood of a successful reclaim of the 1.0 level, Glassnode analysts turn to the short-term holders' SOPR Multiple. This metric compares Bitcoin's short-term profitability trends.Currently, the multiple is in the red zone, suggesting that short-term holders have been realizing more losses recently. This adds downside risk, as holders facing losses are more likely to sell, increasing supply pressure in the market.Furthermore, Glassnode emphasized that with the STH-SOPR Multiple showing negative momentum and the STH-SOPR struggling at breakeven, the probability of rejection at 1.0 appears elevated.
Text source: The Crypto Basic
